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What I mean is "these forecasts give no more information than flipping a coin to decide whether AGI would come in time period A vs. time period B".
I have my own, rough, inside views about if and when AGI will come and what it would be able to do, and I don't find it helpful to quantify them into a specific probability distribution. And there's no "default distribution" here that I can think of either.
greg_colbourn on Greg_Colbourn's ShortformI would say we are basically on the exact same page in terms of the overall vision. I'm also trying to get at these logical chains of information that we can travel backwards through to easily sanity check and also do data analysis.
Where I think we break is if there is no underlying structure to these logical chains outside of a bunch of arrows pointing between links, it reduces our ability to automate and take away insights.
A few examples
Overall I wouldn't say my proposition isn't a full substitute for your idea, but I think there is overlapping functionality.
vaidehi_agarwalla on Researching Priorities in Local ContextsHey Luis, to be clear, I agree with your post (and using a new name - I like context-specific GPR).
My main proposal which may have been unclear is that you proactively reach out to folks who uses the old definition in their work, in case they don't see this post, and suggest they edit their posts.
jackva on Reflecting on the Last Year — Lessons for EA (opening keynote at EAG)I had the same impression, that a big picture view talk was expected but that the actual talk was focused on a single issue and in a fairly philosophical framing.
So I thought it was an excellent talk but it still gave me a strange feeling as the dominant and first EAG response to what happened (I know this made sense given other sessions covering other aspects, but I am unsure it will be perceived this way (one slice of the puzzle) given its keynote character).
nunosempere on Estimation for sanity checksThanks Vasco, these are great. Though, where are you getting the depression baseline from?
julianhazell on Introducing Artists of ImpactVery cool! I’m excited to see where this project goes.
nathan on Reflecting on the Last Year — Lessons for EA (opening keynote at EAG)This feels like a missed opportunity.
My sense is that this was an opportunity to give a "big picture view" rather than note a particular underrated aspect.
If you think there were more important improvements, why not say them, at least as context, in one of the largest forums on this topic?
Thanks for your work :)
damien-laird-1 on Proposal: Connect Metaculus to the EA Forum to Incentivize Better ResearchI would say it a little differently. I would say that "judgmental" forecasting, the kind typically done on Metaculus or Good Judgement Open or similar platforms, CAN involve mathemtical models, but oftentimes people are just doing some simple math, if any at all. In cases where people do use models, sure it would make sense to link to them as sources, and I agree that would also be valuable to track for similar reasons. Guesstimate seems like the obvious place to do that.
I think that is separate from the proposition I intended to communicate for primarily text based research.
I also wasn't anticipating any need to do scraping if this was implemented by the two platforms themselves. It should be easy enough for them to tell if a citation is linking to an EA forum post? Metaculus doesn't have a footnote/citation formatting tool today like the EA Forum's. (Although if you were to scrape, finding EA forum links within citations on this forum seems pretty well defined and achievable? idk, I don't write much code, thus me floating this out here for feedback)
Thanks for the thoughts!
jaythibs on Can independent researchers get a sponsored visa for the US or UK?Yeah, that’s where I asked first. No responses in the thread, but someone DMd me to suggest looking at universities: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kH2uJeQZMnEBKG9GZ/can-independent-researchers-get-a-sponsored-visa-for-the-us [LW · GW].