Thanks for the reply! Sharing a couple other relevant thoughts just because I took the time to think them, but no reply is necessary.
(This is probably the sort of scenario where I should just spend the minute to tweet at VISA rather than spend several minutes trying to more precisely estimate the expected impact, but I only consciously thought of this after already spending a few more minutes thinking about the expected impact and writing out the following so I'm posting my thoughts anyway.)
(a) Naively I'd estimate that the counterfactual effect of 200 additional marginal EAs retweeting/sharing the relevant posts on Tuesday on the probability that VISA eliminates fees for nonprofits in the next year is roughly ~5% (and possibly much lower if I thought about it longer). I'd be shocked if this one push increased the probability by 40%, even though I do agree that sometimes (often?) large companies make changes because of a small number of people posting on social media.
(b) Adjusting your estimate with different more conservative assumptions -- a 2% average credit card fee, only donors <$10,000/year (rather than <$100,000/year) use credit cards to donate (i.e. $15.4% of the $16.1M/year rather than 43%), and assuming only the impact from VISA changing their fees -- then the direct impact would be closer to $24,800/year = (Your $207,690 estimate)(2%/3%)(15.4%/43%)*(0.5). The main direct impact this ignores is the fact that presumably many people who do not respond to the EA Survey donate to EA charities using VISA credit cards. The EA Survey VISA donors may represent a minority of VISA donors to EA charities.jacobpfau on Prepare for Counterfactual Donation Matching on Giving Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020
Ah great, I have pledged. Is this new this year? Or maybe I didn't fill out the pledge last year; I don't remember.rowan_stanley on What are you grateful for?
Echoing some of the other answers here, I’m grateful for the EA community itself. I find it very comforting to know that although the world’s problems are too big to be solved alone— and although all my efforts may well come to nothing— there are others out there trying to do as much good as they can.
Specific people I’m particularly grateful for are:
A big thank you to all of you.avin on Prepare for Counterfactual Donation Matching on Giving Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020
Hi Jacob. If you complete our sign-up form or our pledge form, then you'll be added to our mailing list and should receive reminders in future years.
You may also want to add a filter to direct emails from email@example.com into your primary inbox.cienna on Competitive Ethics
Would it make sense for the Giving Tuesday organization to send out an annual reminder email? I have re-categorized all of my EA newsletters, and so they don't go to my main inbox. Maybe most people have calendar events, or the like, set up. Maybe though for people who almost forgot about Giving Tuesday (like me) a reminder email could be useful!demosthenes_usa on U.S. Executive branch appointments: why you may want to pursue one and tips for how to do so
Sure, I'm happy to share a bit more about myself, and I will also clarify how I intended the google doc to work.
I'm a career civil servant in DC, I work at a cabinet-level agency where I've been for approximately 10 years. I am not a member of the transition team (see response to Ian, above). My connections to the incoming administration are through current and former colleagues, friends, and various folks I know here in DC who I'd classify mostly as "weak ties."
My goal for the google doc is for it to function as a means of networking for folks within the EA community interested working in the exec branch and in the new administration. There are many similar networking efforts underway both formal and informal; I mention a few formal ones in the post (e.g., American Constitution Society, LGBT Victory, etc).
On the backend, all I would plan to do is to connect folks who are either (1) in a position to recommend or place appointments in a given area or agency and/or (2) seeking an appointment in a given area or agency. For certain agencies I may be in a position to make such a recommendation but certainly I don't want to give the impression that I am the head of Presidential Personnel Office or anything like that!
I don't view the information asked for in the google doc as particularly sensitive (it's basically just a resume drop) but if there's anything in your resume you aren't comfortable sharing, then you probably should not use the doc. (Or if there's a way you'd be more comfortable sharing this information please let me know!)danny_lipsitz on Introducing the EA Funds
Ah, okay. So tractability is built into the term "most important"?
I thought they were two separate concepts: https://concepts.effectivealtruism.org/concepts/importance-neglectedness-tractability/
I agree that all that really matters is how effective a particular intervention will be in reducing suffering for the amount of money you plan to donate. Other metrics (especially neglectedness) are just heuristics.michaela on Propose and vote on potential tags
Longtermism (Cause Area)
We have various tags relevant to longtermism or specific things that longtermists are often interested in (e.g., Existential Risk). But we don't have a tag for longtermism as a whole. Longtermism (Philosophy) and Long-Term Future don't fit that bill; the former is just for "posts about philosophical matters relevant to longtermism", and the latter is "meant for discussion of what the long-term future might actually look like".
One example of a post that's relevant to longtermism as a cause area but that doesn't seem to neatly fit in any of the existing longtermism-related tags is Should marginal longtermist donations support fundamental or intervention research? [EA · GW] An analogous post that was focused on global health & dev [? · GW] or mental health [? · GW] could be given the tags that cover those cause areas, and one focused on animal welfare could be given the Farm Animal Welfare and Wild Animal Welfare tags (which seem to me to together fill the role of a tag for that whole cause area).michaela on [deleted]
The name doesn't seem to intuitively capture the aim of this tag including donation recommendations, not just writeups. So maybe this should be renamed to Donation Choice, mirroring the Career Choice tag?
I also think it'd be good for the tag (or some other tag) to more explicitly include recommendations of general areas to fund or principles to follow (e.g., funding fundamental rather than intervention research [EA · GW]). I think Donation Choice would more intuitively capture that than Career Choice would.