Who are the people that most publicly predicted we'd have AGI by now? Have they published any kind of retrospective, and updated their views?

post by nonzerosum · 2019-06-28T21:01:10.476Z · score: 7 (3 votes) · EA · GW · 4 comments

This is a question post.


    5 lukeprog


answer by lukeprog · 2019-06-29T18:35:17.032Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · EA · GW

You could dive into the specific examples in the spreadsheet linked here (the MIRI AI predictions dataset).


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comment by aarongertler · 2019-06-30T04:40:14.864Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I'm not aware of any major thinkers who predicted AGI by this date at any time during the 21st century. Would you still be interested in seeing predictions by people who guessed that we'd have AGI now in, say, 1980?

comment by technicalities · 2019-06-29T14:29:50.169Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I was sure that Kurzweil would be one, but actually he's still on track. ("Proper Turing test passed by 2029").

I wonder if the dismissive received view on him is because he states specific years (to make himself falsifiable), which people interpret as crankish overconfidence.