Discontinuous progress in history: an update

post by AI Impacts · 2020-04-17T16:28:51.373Z · score: 60 (21 votes) · EA · GW · 3 comments

Contents

    I. The search for discontinuities
    II. The discontinuities
      Large robust discontinuities
      The Pyramid of Djoser, 2650BC
      The SS 
      The first transatlantic telegraph
      The second transatlantic telegraph
      The first non-stop transatlantic flight
      The George Washington Bridge
      Nuclear weapons
      The Paris Gun
      The first intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
      YBa2Cu3O7 as a superconductor
    Moderate robust discontinuities (10-100 years of extra progress):
    Other places we looked
  III. Some observations
      Prevalence of discontinuities
      Discontinuities go with changes in the growth rate
      Where do we see discontinuities?
      More things to observe
  IV. Summary
None
3 comments

Note: This was cross-posted by Aaron Gertler, a Forum moderator. Footnotes from the AI Impacts site take substantial effort to transfer to the Forum, so footnote links from this post will take you to the original blog post. 

Hence, he recommends you read said blog post (but will leave the full text of this post up so that it's easier to search for).

 

I. The search for discontinuities

We’ve been looking for historic cases of discontinuously fast technological progress, to help with reasoning about the likelihood and consequences of abrupt progress in AI capabilities. We recently finished expanding this investigation to 37 technological trends.1 This blog post is a quick update on our findings. See the main page on the research and its outgoing links for more details.

We found ten events in history that abruptly and clearly contributed more to progress on some technological metric than another century would have seen on the previous trend.2 Or as we say, we found ten events that produced ‘large’, ‘robust’ ‘discontinuities’.

How we measure the size of a discontinuity (by Rick Korzekwa)

Another five events caused robust discontinuities of between ten and a hundred years (‘moderate robust discontinuities’). And 48 more events caused some trend to depart from our best guess linear or exponential extrapolation of its past progress by at least ten years (and often a hundred), but did so in the context of such unclear past trends that this did not seem clearly remarkable.3 I call all of these departures ‘discontinuities’, and distinguish those that are clearly outside plausible extrapolations of the past trend, according to my judgment, as ‘robust discontinuities’.4

Much of the data involved in this project seems at least somewhat unreliable, and the methods involve many judgments, and much ignoring of minor issues. So I would not be surprised if more effort could produce numerous small changes. However I expect the broad outlines to be correct.5

II. The discontinuities

Large robust discontinuities

Here is a quick list of the robust 100-year discontinuous events, which I’ll describe in more detail beneath:

The Pyramid of Djoser, 2650BC

Discontinuity in structure height trends6

The Pyramid of Djoser is considered to be ‘the earliest colossal stone structure’ in Egypt. According to Wikipedia’s data, it took seven thousand years for the tallest structures to go from five to thirteen meters tall7 and then suddenly the Egyptian pyramids shot up to a height of 146.5m over about a hundred years and five successively tallest pyramids.

The Pyramid of Djoser, by Charles J Sharp – Own work, from Sharp Photography, sharpphotography, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

The first of these five is the Pyramid of Djoser, standing 62.5m tall. The second one—Meidum Pyramid—is also a large discontinuity in structure height trends by our calculation, but I judge it not robust, since it is fairly unclear what the continuation of the trend should be after the first discontinuity. As is common, the more basic thing going on seems to be a change in the growth rate, and the discontinuity of the Pyramid of Djoser is just the start of it.

The Djoser discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at the Pyramid of Djoser
A longer history of record structure heights, showing the isolated slew of pyramids

Strangely, after this spurt of progress, humanity built nothing taller than the tallest pyramid for nearly four thousand years—until Lincoln Cathedral in 1311—and nothing more than twenty percent taller than it until the Eiffel Tower in 1889.

The SS 

Great Eastern

Discontinuity in ship size, measured in ‘builder’s old measurement8 or in displacement.

The SS Great Eastern was a freakishly large ship. For instance, it seems to have weighed about five times as much as any previous ship. As far as I can tell, the reason it existed is that Isambard Kingdom Brunell thought it would be good. Brunell was a 19th Century engineering hero, rated #2 greatest Briton of all time in a 2002 BBC poll, who according to Wikipedia, ‘revolutionised public transport and modern engineering’ and built ‘dockyards, the Great Western Railway (GWR), a series of steamships including the first propeller-driven transatlantic steamship, and numerous important bridges and tunnels’.

The SS Great Eastern compared to the UK Royal Navy’s ships of the line, which were probably not much smaller than the largest ships overall immediately prior to the Great Eastern

The experimental giant sailing steamship idea doesn’t seem to have gone well. The Great Eastern apparently never had its cargo holds filled, and ran at a deficit for years before being sold and used for laying the second telegraph cable (another source of large discontinuity—see below).9 It was designed for transporting passengers to the Far East, but there was never the demand.10 It was purportedly rumored to be ‘cursed’, and suffered various ill fortune. On its maiden voyage a boiler exploded, throwing one of the funnels into the air and killing six people.11 Later it hit a rock and got a 9-foot gash, which seems to have been hard to fix because the ship was too big for standard repair methods.12

We don’t have a whole trend for largest ships, so are using British Royal Navy ship of the line size trends as a proxy against which to compare the Great Eastern.13 This gives us discontinuities of around 400 years in both displacement and tonnage (BOM).

The SS Great Eastern

However that is assuming we expect ship size to increase either linearly or exponentially (our usual expectation). But looking at the ship of the line trends, both displacement and cargo capacity (measured in tonnage, BOM) seemed to grow at something closer to a hyperbolic curve for some reason—apparently accelerating toward an asymptote in the late 1860s. If we had expected progress to continue this way throughout, then neither trend had any discontinuities, instead of eight or eleven of them. And supposing that overall ship size follows the same hyperbola as the military ship trends, then the Great Eastern’s discontinuities go from around 400 years to roughly 11 or 13 years. Which doesn’t sound big, but since this was about that many years before of the asymptote of the hyperbola at which point arbitrarily large ships were theoretically expected, the discontinuities couldn’t have been much bigger.

Our data ended for some reason just around the apparently impending ship size singularity of the late 1860s. But my impression is that not much happened for a while—it apparently took forty years for a ship larger than the Great Eastern to be built, on many measures.

I am unsure what to make of the apparently erroneous and unforced investment in the most absurdly enormous ship happening within a decade or two of the point at which trend extrapolation appears to have suggested arbitrarily large ships. Was Brunell aware of the trend? Did the forces that produced the rest of the trend likewise try to send all the players in the ship-construction economy up the asymptote, where they crashed into some yet unmet constraint? It is at least nice to have more examples of what happens when singularities are reached in the human world.

The first transatlantic telegraph

Discontinuity in speed of sending a 140 character message across the Atlantic Ocean

Until 1858, the fastest way to get a message from New York to London was by ship, and the fastest ships took over a week14. Telegraph was used earlier on land, but running it between continents was quite an undertaking. The effort to lay the a transatlantic cable failed numerous times before it became ongoingly functional.15 One of those times though, it worked for about a month, and messages were sent.16 There were celebrations in the streets.

H.M.S. “Agamemnon” laying the Atlantic Telegraph cable in 1858. A whale crosses the line, R. M. Bryson, from a drawing by R. Dudley, 1865
A celebration parade for the first transatlantic telegraph cable, Broadway, New York City

The telegraph could send a 98 word message in a mere 16 hours. For a message of more than about 1400 words, it would actually have been faster to send it by ship (supposing you already had it written down). So this was a big discontinuity for short messages, but not necessarily any progress at all for longer ones.

The first transatlantic telegraph cable revolutionized 140 character message speed across the Atlantic Ocean

The second transatlantic telegraph

Discontinuity in speed of sending a 140 character message across the Atlantic Ocean

After the first working transatlantic telegraph cable (see above) failed in 1858, it was another eight years before the second working cable was finished. Most of that delay was apparently for lack of support.17 and the final year seems to have been because the cable broke and the end was lost at sea after over a thousand miles had been laid, leaving the ship to return home and a new company to be established before the next try.18 Whereas it sounds like it took less than a day to go from the ship carrying the cable arriving in port, and the sending of telegraphs.

The second telegraph discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at the second telegraph. Note that the big discontinuity of the first telegraph cable is now almost invisible.

At a glance, on Wikipedia’s telling, it sounds as though the perseverance of one person—Cyrus West Field—might have affected when fast transatlantic communication appeared by years. He seems to have led all five efforts, supplied substantial money himself, and ongoingly fundraised and formed new companies, even amidst a broader lack of enthusiasm after initial failures. (He was also given a congressional gold medal for establishing the transatlantic telegraph cable, suggesting the US congress also has this impression.) His actions wouldn’t have affected how much of a discontinuity either telegraph was by much, but it is interesting if such a large development in a seemingly important area might have been accelerated much by a single person.

The second telegraph cable was laid by the Great Eastern, the discontinuously large ship of two sections ago. Is there some reason for these two big discontinuities to be connected? For instance, did one somehow cause the other? That doesn’t seem plausible. The main way I can think of that the transatlantic telegraph could have caused the Great Eastern‘s size would be if the economic benefits of being able to lay cable were anticipated and effectively subsidized the ship. I haven’t heard of this being an intended use for the Great Eastern. And given that the first transatlantic telegraph was not laid by the Great Eastern, it seems unlikely that such a massive ship was strictly needed for the success of a second one at around that time, though the second cable used was apparently around twice as heavy as the first. Another possibility is that some other common factor made large discontinuities more possible. For instance, perhaps it was an unusually feasible time and place for solitary technological dreamers to carry out ambitious and economically adventurous projects.

Great Eastern again, this time at Heart’s Content, Newfoundland, where it carried the end of the second transatlantic telegraph cable in 1866

The first non-stop transatlantic flight

Discontinuity in both speed of passenger travel across the Atlantic Ocean and speed of military payload travel across the Atlantic Ocean

Ships were the fastest way to cross the Atlantic Ocean until the end of World War I. Passenger liners had been getting incrementally faster for about eighty years, and the fastest regular passenger liner was given a special title, ‘Blue Riband‘. Powered heavier-than-air flight got started in 1903, but at first planes only traveled hundreds of feet, and it took time to expand that to the 1600 or so miles needed to cross the Atlantic in one hop.19

The first non-stop transatlantic flight was made shortly after the end of WWI, in 1919. The Daily Mail had offered a large cash prize, on hold during the war, and with the resumption of peace, a slew of competitors prepared to fly. Alcock and Brown were the first to do it successfully, in a modified bomber plane, taking around 16 hours, for an average speed around four times faster than the Blue Riband.

Alcock and Brown landed in Irelend, 1919

One might expect discontinuities to be especially likely in a metric like ‘speed to cross the Atlantic’, which involves a sharp threshold on a non-speed axis for inclusion in the speed contest. For instance if planes incrementally improved on speed and range (and cost and comfort) every year, but couldn’t usefully cross the ocean at all until their range reached 1600 miles, then decades of incremental speed improvements could all hit the transatlantic speed record at once, when the range reaches that number.

Is this what happened? It looks like it. The Wright Flyer apparently had a maximum speed of 30mph. That’s about the record average ocean liner speed in 1909. So if the Wright Flyer had had the range to cross the Atlantic in 1903 at that speed, it would have been about six years ahead of the ship speed trend and wouldn’t have registered as a substantial discontinuity. 20 But because it didn’t have the range, and because the speed of planes was growing faster than that of ships, in 1919 when planes could at last fly thousands of miles, they were way ahead of ships.

The transatlantic flight discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at the first non-stop transatlantic flight.

The George Washington Bridge

Discontinuity in longest bridge span

A bridge ‘span‘ is the distance between two intermediate supports in a bridge. The history of bridge span length is not very smooth, and so arguably full of discontinuities, but the only bridge span that seems clearly way out of distribution to me is the main span of the George Washington Bridge. (See below.)

The George Washington Bridge discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at the George Washington Bridge

I’m not sure what made it so discontinuously long, but it is notably also the world’s busiest motor vehicle bridge (as of 2016), connecting New York City with New Jersey, so one can imagine that it was a very unusually worthwhile expanse of water to cross. Another notable feature of it was that it was much thinner relative to its length than long suspension bridges normally were, and lacked the usual ‘trusses’, based on a new theory of bridge design.21

George Washington Bridge, via Wikimedia Commons, Photographer: Bob Jagendorf

Nuclear weapons

Discontinuity in relative effectiveness of explosives

The ‘relative effectiveness factor‘ of an explosive is how much TNT you would need to do the same job.22 Pre-nuclear explosives had traversed the range of relative effectiveness factors from around 0.5 to 2 over about a thousand years, when in 1945 the first nuclear weapons came in at a relative effectiveness of around 450023.

The nuclear weapons discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at the first nuclear weapons

A few characteristics of nuclear weapons that could relate to their discontinuousness:

I discussed whether and how these things might be related to the discontinuity in 2015 here (see Gwern’s comment) and here.

Preparation for the Trinity Test, the first detonation of a nuclear weapon
The trinity test explosion after 15 seconds

The Paris Gun

Discontinuity in altitude reached by man-made means

The Paris Gun was the largest artillery gun in WWI, used by the Germans to bomb Paris from 75 miles away. It could shoot 25 miles into the air, whereas the previous record we know of was around 1 mile into the air (also shot by a German gun).24

The Paris Gun, able to shell Paris from 75 miles away
The Paris Gun discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend of highest altitudes reached by man-made means, cut off at the Paris Gun

I don’t have much idea why the Paris Gun traveled so much higher than previous weapons. Wikipedia suggests that its goals were psychological rather than physically effective warfare:

As military weapons, the Paris Guns were not a great success: the payload was small, the barrel required frequent replacement, and the guns’ accuracy was good enough for only city-sized targets. The German objective was to build a psychological weapon to attack the morale of the Parisians, not to destroy the city itself.

This might explain an unusual trade-off of distance (and therefore altitude) against features like accuracy and destructive ability. On this story, building a weapon to shoot a projectile 25 miles into the air had been feasible for some time, but wasn’t worth it. This highlights the more general possibility that the altitude trend was perhaps more driven by the vagaries of demand for different tangentially-altitude-related ends than by technological progress.

The German military apparently dismantled the Paris Guns before departing, and did not comply with a Treaty of Versailles requirement to turn over a complete gun to the Allies, so the guns’ capabilities are not known with certainty. However it sounds like the shells were clearly observed in Paris, and the relevant gun was clearly observed around 70 miles away, so the range is probably not ambiguous, and the altitude reached by a projectile is closely related to the range. So uncertainty around the gun probably doesn’t affect our conclusions.

The first intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)

Discontinuity in average speed of military payload crossing the Atlantic Ocean

For most of history, the fastest way to send a military payload across the Atlantic Ocean was to put it on a boat or plane, much like a human passenger. So the maximum speed of sending a military payload across the Atlantic Ocean followed the analogous passenger travel trend. However in August 1957, the two abruptly diverged with the first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)—the Russian R-7 Semyorka. Early ICBMs traveled at around 11 thousand miles per hour, taking the minimum time to send a military payload between Moscow and New York for instance from around 14 hours to around 24 minutes.25

The ICBM discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at the first ICBM

A ‘ballistic‘ missile is unpowered during most of its flight, and so follows a ballistic trajectory—the path of anything thrown into the air. Interestingly, this means that in order to go far enough to traverse the Atlantic, it has to be going a certain speed. Ignoring the curvature of the Earth or friction, this would be about 7000 knots for the shortest transatlantic distance—70% of its actual speed, and enough to be hundreds of years of discontinuity in the late 50s.26 So assuming ballistic missiles crossed the ocean when they did, they had to produce a large discontinuity in the speed trend.

Does this mean the ICBM was required to be a large discontinuity? No—there would be no discontinuity if rockets were improving in line with planes, and so transatlantic rockets were developed later, or ICBM-speed planes earlier. But it means that even if the trends for rocket distance and speed are incremental and start from irrelevantly low numbers, if they have a faster rate of growth than planes, and the threshold in distance required implies a speed way above the current record, then a large discontinuity must happen

This situation also means that you could plausibly have predicted the discontinuity ahead of time, if you were watching the trends. Seeing the rocket speed trend traveling upward faster than the plane speed trend, you could forecast that when it hit a speed that implied an intercontinental range, intercontinental weapons delivery speed would jump upward.

An SM-65 Atlas, the first US ICBM, first launched in 1957 (1958 image)

YBa2Cu3O7 as a superconductor

Discontinuity in warmest temperature of superconduction

When an ordinary material conducts electricity, it has some resistance (or opposition to the flow of electrons) which takes energy to overcome. The resistance can be gradually lowered by cooling the material down. For some materials though, there is a temperature threshold below which their resistance abruptly drops to zero, meaning for instance that electricity can flow through them indefinitely with no input of energy. These are ‘superconductors‘.

Superconductors were discovered in 1911. The first one observed, mercury, could superconduct below 4.2 Kelvin. From then on, more superconductors were discovered, and the warmest observed temperatures of superconduction gradually grew. In 1957, BCS theory was developed to explain the phenomenon (winning its authors a Nobel Prize), and was understood to rule out superconduction above temperatures of around 30K. But in 1986 a new superconductor was found with a threshold temperature around 30K, and composed of a surprising material: a ‘ceramic’ involving oxygen rather than an alloy.27 This also won a Nobel Prize, and instigated a rapid series of discoveries in similar materials—’cuprates‘—which shot the highest threshold temperatures to around 125 K by 1988 (before continued upward).

The high temperature superconductor discontinuity: close up on the preceding trend, cut off at YBa2Cu3O7

The first of the cuprates, LaBaCuO4, seems mostly surprising for theoretical reasons, rather than being radically above the temperature trend.28 The big jump came the following year, from YBa2Cu3O7, with its threshold at over 90 K.29

This seems like a striking instance of the story where the new technology doesn’t necessarily cause a jump so much as a new rate of progress. I wonder if there was a good reason for the least surprising cuprate to be discovered first. My guess is that there were many unsurprising ones, and substances are only famous if they were discovered before more exciting substances.

Magnet levitating on top of a superconductor of YBa2Cu3O cooled to merely -196°C (77.15 Kelvin). Superconductors can allow magnetic levitation, consistently repelling permanent magnets while stably pinned in place. (Picture: Julien Bobroff (user:Jubobroff), Frederic Bouquet (user:Fbouquet), LPS, Orsay, France / CC BY-SA)

It is interesting to me that this is associated with a substantial update in very basic science, much like nuclear weapons. I’m not sure if that makes basic science updates ripe for discontinuity, or if there are just enough of them that some would show up in this list. (Though glancing at this list suggests to me that there were about 70 at this level in the 20th Century, and probably many fewer immediately involving a new capability rather than e.g. an increased understanding of pulsars. Penicillin also makes that list though, and we didn’t find any discontinuities it caused.)

Moderate robust discontinuities (10-100 years of extra progress):

The 10-100 year discontinuous events were:

Other places we looked

Here are places we didn’t find robust discontinuities32) – follow the links to read about any in detail:

III. Some observations

Prevalence of discontinuities

Some observations on the overall prevalence of discontinuities:

This all suggests that discontinuities, and large discontinuities in particular, are more common than I thought previously (though still not that common). One reason for this change is that I was treating difficulty of finding good cases of discontinuous progress as more informative than I do now. I initially thought there weren’t many around because suggested discontinuities often turned out not to be discontinuous, and there weren’t a huge number of promising suggestions. However we later got more good suggestions, and found many discontinuities where we weren’t necessarily looking for them. So I’m inclined to think there are a few around, but our efforts at seeking them out specifically just weren’t very effective. Another reason for a larger number now is that our more systematic methods now turn up many cases that don’t look very remarkable to the naked eye (those I have called non-robust), which we did not necessarily notice earlier. How important these are is less clear.

Discontinuities go with changes in the growth rate

It looks like discontinuities are often associated with changes in the growth rate. At a glance, 15 of the 38 trends had a relatively sharp change in their rate of progress at least once in their history. These changes in the growth rate very often coincided with discontinuities—in fourteen of the fifteen trends, at least one sharp change coincided with one of the discontinuities.35 If this is a real relationship, it means that if you see a discontinuity, there is a much heightened chance of further fast progress coming up. This seems important, but is a quick observation and should probably be checked and investigated further if we wanted to rely on it.

Where do we see discontinuities?

Among these case studies, when is a development more likely to produce a discontinuity in a trend?36 Some observations so far, based on the broader class including non-robust discontinuities, except where noted:

I feel like there are other obvious patterns that I’m missing. Some other semi-obvious patterns that I’m noticing but don’t have time to actually check now, I am putting in the next section.

More things to observe

There are lots of other interesting things to ask about this kind of data, in particular regarding what kinds of things tend to see jumps. Here are some questions that we might answer in future, or which we welcome you to try to answer (and hope our data helps with):

IV. Summary

3 comments

Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by Denise_Melchin · 2020-04-18T17:21:26.759Z · score: 8 (6 votes) · EA(p) · GW(p)

Great post!

Brief note: I found The Victorian Internet by Tom Standage (basically a history of the telegraph) very useful for training my intuition what the development of a discontinuity like the telegraph looked like both from the scientists' and engineers' perspective as well as the societal changes that followed.

comment by matthewp · 2020-04-18T15:33:37.135Z · score: 8 (7 votes) · EA(p) · GW(p)

This is a nice piece of accessible scholarship. It would perhaps benefit from an explicit note on why the question is interesting in this context and to this audience.

comment by Peter_Hurford · 2020-04-18T16:46:00.814Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA(p) · GW(p)

Great work, as usual.