Progress Open Thread: November 2020

post by Aaron Gertler (aarongertler) · 2020-11-02T11:06:47.609Z · EA · GW · 14 comments


  What goes in a progress thread comment? 

The Progress Open Thread is a place to share good news, big or small.

See this post [EA · GW] for an explanation of why we have these threads.

What goes in a progress thread comment? 

Think of this as an org update thread [EA · GW] for individuals. You might talk about...


Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by Tamay · 2020-11-06T12:43:10.411Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

I won the Stevenson prize (a prize given out at my faculty) for  my performance in the  MPhil in Economics.  I gather Amartya Sen won the same prize some 64 years ago, which I think is pretty cool.

comment by Ben_West · 2020-11-06T22:13:14.016Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Amartya Sen won the same prize 

No pressure.


Just kidding, congratulations!

comment by Linch · 2020-11-06T13:09:03.129Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Damn congrats!!! 

comment by alexrjl · 2020-11-06T14:29:17.604Z · EA(p) · GW(p)


comment by NunoSempere · 2020-11-03T22:29:54.853Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

I'm currently #1 on the leaderboard of CSET's foretell; predicting that, before the US elections, China would not add a U.S. company to its newly created Unreliable Entities List, and that no private messages obtained in the July Twitter hack would be leaked to the public just brought me from 2nd to 1st.

CSET's foretell is "a crowd forecasting pilot project launched by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology that focuses on questions relevant to technology-security policy." CSET received/was created with a large grant from OpenPhil.

comment by Linch · 2020-11-07T01:27:52.666Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

congrats that's awesome!

comment by Linch · 2020-11-07T01:28:49.919Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Do you know what's the base rate of questions on foretell that resolves "yes?"

comment by NunoSempere · 2020-11-07T09:28:16.263Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Good question. Of the binary questions which I've predicted and have resolved, 0/10 (!). But 7 were about US-China relations, so you'd expect them to be somewhat correlated. Some of them also seemed like they could have happened, like Microsoft's acquisition of TikTok, or European countries restricting Huawai. So, overall, my gut tells me I'd expect about 10-20% to resolve positively in the future. Note that binary questions (as opposed to questions which ask about different ranges) are relatively scarce; there are 29 questions open right now of which only 4 are binary.

comment by Aaron Gertler (aarongertler) · 2020-11-02T22:29:43.738Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Togo just became the first African country to have officially (according to the World Health Organization) eliminated sleeping sickness!

comment by Aaron Gertler (aarongertler) · 2020-11-23T18:04:21.405Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Myanmar has eliminated trachoma

In 2005, trachoma was responsible for 4% of all cases of blindness in Myanmar. By 2018, the prevalence of trachoma was down to a mere 0.008% with trachoma no longer a public health problem.

Meanwhile, Maldives and Sri Lanka have both eliminated rubella. This appears in the same article as the Myanmar news, because... 

...I guess eliminating diseases nationwide is so commonplace that we don't even need separate updates for each country/disease? That seems like a good thing.

comment by Rowan_Stanley · 2020-11-23T23:59:52.806Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

I finished my degree! (BA in economics and philosophy). It ended up being quite a challenging final semester, mostly because of COVID and things going on in my personal life, so it's great to have it done.

I also won an award from my college for my performance (highest GPA), which was pretty cool.

comment by Aaron Gertler (aarongertler) · 2020-11-24T21:20:02.872Z · EA(p) · GW(p)


comment by Rowan_Stanley · 2020-11-26T00:44:44.656Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Thank you :)

comment by Ben_West · 2020-11-17T17:23:35.946Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

The world's first lab grown meat restaurant opened in Israel: