$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge

post by Ozzie Gooen (oagr), NunoSempere · 2022-08-04T14:20:33.844Z · EA · GW · 2 comments

Contents

  Motivation
  Prize
  Rules
  Support & Feedback
  Judges
  Ideas
    Software Ideas
    Research Ideas
    Some existing tools that use Squiggle (for inspiration)
None
2 comments
An enthusiastic researcher iterating on Squiggle experiments, sweating into a napkin over the intensity.  DALL-E 2

Motivation

The team at QURI has recently released Squiggle, [EA · GW]a very new and experimental programming language for probabilistic estimation. We’re curious about what promising use cases it could enable, and we are launching a prize to incentivize people to find this out.

Prize

We offer a $600 first-place prize, a $300 second-place prize, and a $100 third-place prize. The prize will be paid for by the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI).

Rules

To enter, first make a public post online between now and September 1, 2022. We encourage you to either post directly or make a link post to either the EA Forum or to LessWrong. Second, complete this form, also before September 1, 2022.

We’ll aim to make decisions by October 1, 2022.

More specifically:

  1. Experiment with Squiggle. Make an interesting model with it or develop a tech prototype or integration using it.
  2. Make a (short is fine) blog post about your experiment. If you post to the EA Forum or LessWrong, others can more easily share their opinions. In your post, if you could include some honest feedback on how you found working with Squiggle, that would be appreciated, but it's not required.
  3. Submit this form with the key details. Submit it by September 1, 2022. 

Support & Feedback

If you’d like feedback or would like to discuss possible projects, please reach out! (via direct message or email.) We’ll invite you to our Slack and can give feedback and advice. Also, feel free to file issues or comments/questions/suggestions on the Squiggle Github page.

Judges

The judges will be [EA · GW]Nuño Sempere [EA · GW], Ozzie Gooen [EA · GW], and Quinn Dougherty [EA · GW]. The rest of the Squiggle team will also consult. We’ll select winners for their importance, novelty, and presentation.

Ideas

Some ideas, any of which could be taken from the recent post [EA · GW]:

Software Ideas

Research Ideas

Some existing tools that use Squiggle (for inspiration)

2 comments

Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by Lorenzo (Lorenzo Buonanno) · 2022-08-04T15:27:55.957Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

This tool converts Guesstimate models into Squiggle models


I think the link should go to https://recursing.github.io/guesstimate_to_squiggle/

Disclaimer: it's very MVP, needs manual tweaking for many models

Replies from: oagr
comment by Ozzie Gooen (oagr) · 2022-08-04T18:47:46.388Z · EA(p) · GW(p)

Sorry, fixed!