Narration: Report on Running a Forecasting Tournament at an EA Retreat, part 2

post by D0TheMath · 2021-07-14T19:41:42.035Z · EA · GW · None comments

This is a link post for https://anchor.fm/ea-forum-podcast/episodes/Report-on-Running-a-Forecasting-Tournament-at-an-EA-Retreat--part-2-e14evjl

Contents

  Tournament Outcomes
  Strategies Used by Players
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Original post by Hamish Huggard [EA · GW]


Podcast description

Tournament Outcomes

In this section I’ll go over the strategies used by players, final scores, and the winner of the tournament. For the actual outcomes of the predictions, see the appendix.

Strategies Used by Players

The most common strategy I observed was when a question’s outcome could be influenced by player behaviour, players would predict an outcome with 99% confidence then devise a plan to make their predicted outcome happen. One player even made a to-do list:


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