quant model for ai safety donations?

post by rafa_fanboy · 2019-01-02T13:44:43.186Z · score: 10 (5 votes) · EA · GW · 6 comments

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is there a quantitative model for money going to ai safety like this (http://globalprioritiesproject.org/2015/08/quantifyingaisafety/) but for donations ? not including far future utopia effects but just x-risk

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answer by Tetraspace Grouping · 2019-01-02T21:55:14.671Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

One can convert the utility-per-researcher into utility-per-dollar by dividing everything by a cost per researcher. So if before you would have 1e-6 x-risk reduction per researcher, and you also decide to value researchers at $1M/researcher, then your evaluation in terms of cost is 1e-12 x-risk per dollar.

For some values (i.e. fake numbers but still acceptable for comparing orders-of-magnitude of cause areas) that I've saw used: The Oxford Prioritisation Project uses 1.8 million (lognormal distribution between $1M and $3M) for a MIRI researcher over their career, 80,000 Hours implicitly uses ~$100,000/year/worker in their yardsticks comparing cause areas, and Effective Altruism orgs in the 2018 talent survey claim to value their junior hires at $450k and senior hires at $3M on average (over three years).

comment by rafa_fanboy · 2019-01-03T00:25:20.787Z · score: -1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

ok, im not sure if ai researchers get paid that much though

comment by Tetraspace Grouping · 2019-01-03T00:58:30.282Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · EA · GW

The cost per researcher is typically larger than what they get paid, since it also includes overhead (administration costs, office space, etc).

comment by G Gordon Worley III (gworley3) · 2019-01-03T01:37:02.366Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Right. For comparison software engineers (of all kinds, including ML engineers) at early-stage startups generally add between $500k and $1mm to the company's valuation, i.e. investors believe these employees make the company worth buying/selling for that much additional money. There's a lot that goes into where that number comes from, but it does at least suggest that O($1mm) is reasonable.

comment by rafa_fanboy · 2019-01-03T03:27:32.820Z · score: -1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

whats the charity overhead for something like miri or fhi?

comment by Tetraspace Grouping · 2019-01-03T14:14:11.383Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

In MIRI's fundraiser they released their 2019 budget estimate, which spends about half on research personnel. I'm not sure how this compares to similar organizations.

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