What question would you want a prediction market about?

post by Nathan Young (nathan) · 2020-01-19T14:16:57.356Z · score: 4 (1 votes) · EA · GW · 1 comments

This is a question post.

"Hunger worldwide will be below 5% in what year?"

"Next year will be in the top 10 hottest years on record"

"AI will write an oscar-winning screenplay in what year"

Check out this prediction market platform ( https://smarkets.com/event/886734/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/democratic-nominee-2020 ). Would it be useful to you to have markets on certain questions (climate change, child literacy, next paper to fail replication etc)? Perhaps you have discussions which could be solved by being able to show that the market is in favour of a certain position? Maybe it could be useful marketing material.

So if you could create a prediction market for any testable question, what would it be? Do you think this might be particularly valuable to you?

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comment by Peter_Hurford · 2020-02-10T03:53:59.272Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA(p) · GW(p)

Worth taking a look at Metaculus if you haven't seen it.