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Thanks for this, really interesting! I am surprised that the total attendance of fellowships isn't even higher - do you have a feel for whether they're typically constrained by mentors or signups? In my experience helping run fellowships, many people are surprisingly interested but haven't heard about EA, have you looked at ways to reach more of these people?
I think this is a good point, I'm really enjoying all your comments in this thread:)
It strikes me that one way that the next century effects of our actions might be instrumentally useful is that they might give some (weak) evidence as to what the longer term effects might be.
All else equal, if some action causes a stable, steady positive effect each year for the next century, then I think that action is more likely to have a positive long term effect than some other action which has a negative effect in the next century. However this might be easily outweighed by specific reasons to think that the action's longer run effects will differ.
These are fascinating, I would love to see answers to all of these questions!
Alongside social media ads, could one possible strategy be asking highly motivated constituency members in targeted areas (eg EAs, people that email their MP) to post similar content to the ads, to local Facebook groups and their own social media networks? Zero cost, and might extend reach beyond paid adverts.
One risk is that if they're not very well informed they might misrepresent the message. In which case the campaign could provide materials for them to post (maybe identical to the ad content).
I think my ethics are less considered than the average EA community member, so I think I'd rather defer the decision to them. Doesn't seem especially motivating for me personally.