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Comment by adam-binks on A case against strong longtermism · 2020-12-19T00:51:08.014Z · EA · GW

I think this is a good point, I'm really enjoying all your comments in this thread:)

It strikes me that one way that the next century effects of our actions might be instrumentally useful is that they might give some (weak) evidence as to what the longer term effects might be.

All else equal, if some action causes a stable, steady positive effect each year for the next century, then I think that action is more likely to have a positive long term effect than some other action which has a negative effect in the next century. However this might be easily outweighed by specific reasons to think that the action's longer run effects will differ.

Comment by adam-binks on Ask Rethink Priorities Anything (AMA) · 2020-12-14T12:32:38.581Z · EA · GW

These are fascinating, I would love to see answers to all of these questions!

Comment by adam-binks on £4bn for the global poor: the UK's 0.7% · 2020-12-02T11:48:06.005Z · EA · GW

Alongside social media ads, could one possible strategy be asking highly motivated constituency members in targeted areas (eg EAs, people that email their MP) to post similar content to the ads, to local Facebook groups and their own social media networks? Zero cost, and might extend reach beyond paid adverts.

One risk is that if they're not very well informed they might misrepresent the message. In which case the campaign could provide materials for them to post (maybe identical to the ad content).

Comment by adam-binks on Please Take the 2020 EA Survey · 2020-11-19T18:27:26.448Z · EA · GW

I think my ethics are less considered than the average EA community member, so I think I'd rather defer the decision to them. Doesn't seem especially motivating for me personally.