Posts

What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? 2020-07-26T14:40:17.356Z · score: 27 (12 votes)
Climate change donation recommendations 2020-07-16T21:17:57.720Z · score: 34 (10 votes)
[Linkpost] - Mitigation versus Supression for COVID-19 2020-03-16T21:01:28.273Z · score: 9 (6 votes)
If you (mostly) believe in worms, what should you think about WASH? 2020-02-18T16:47:12.319Z · score: 33 (14 votes)
alexrjl's Shortform 2019-11-02T22:43:28.641Z · score: 2 (1 votes)
What book(s) would you want a gifted teenager to come across? 2019-08-05T13:39:09.324Z · score: 26 (15 votes)
Can the EA community copy Teach for America? (Looking for Task Y) 2019-02-21T13:38:33.921Z · score: 78 (42 votes)
Amazon Smile 2018-11-18T20:16:27.180Z · score: 8 (7 votes)

Comments

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-08-13T06:04:50.005Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Lots of good ideas here, and I think I'll be able to help with several, sent you a pm.

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-08-12T14:08:52.044Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I assume the former?
 

 

Yes.

I'm not sure you I know what you mean by this (particularly the part after the comma).


The not was in the wrong place, have fixed now.

I had briefly got in touch with rethink about trying to predict survey outcomes, but I'm not going ahead with this for now as the conerns your raised seem bad if low probability. I'm consider, as an alternative, asking about the donation split of EAF in ~5 years, which I think kind of tracks related ideas but seems to have less downside risk of the form you describe. 

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-08-11T11:49:19.409Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

This is really interesting, and potentially worth my abandoning the plan to write some questions on the outcomes of future EA surveys. 
 

The difficulty with "what will people in general think about X" type questions is how to operationalise them, but there's potentially enough danger in doing this for it not to be worth the tradeoff. I'm interested in more thoughts here.

In terms of "how big a deal will X be, there are several questions already of that form. The Metaculus search function is not amazing, so I'm happy to dig things out if there are areas of particular interest, though several are mentioned elsewhere in this thread.

Comment by alexrjl on Should we create an EA index? · 2020-08-04T12:55:29.932Z · score: 13 (6 votes) · EA · GW

A good starting point for reading on this would be this post by HaukeHillbrandt and this response by grissman.

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-08-03T08:24:57.903Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Here are the three upcoming questions I've written in response to the ideas on this thread:

Who will win the 'worm wars'?

When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?

How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-08-02T15:14:21.321Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · EA · GW

These are great questions. Several similar questions are already up which I've linked below (including one I approved after this post was written). I've also written three new questions based on your ideas, which I'm just waiting for someone else to proofread and will then add to this post.

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?

Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?

Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?

What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?

How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?

Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?

Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-31T13:12:54.609Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

This question is now open.

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-31T12:49:24.785Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

It looks like a different part of the survey asked about cause prioritisation directly, which seems like it could be closer to what you wanted, my current plan (5 questions) for how to use the survey is here.

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-30T22:06:16.624Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Metaculus did briefly experiment with a finance spinoff but I don't believe it was successful. I can definitely write a couple and I think they'd get a lot of interest, but I'd be surprised if making investment decisions based on metaculus was a winning strategy in the long-term. I'd be more optimistic, though still cautious, about political betting using metaculus predictions.


Here are some current questions which seem relevant, you can find more here.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4699/what-will-the-lbma-gold-price-be-in-us-dollars-on-december-31-2020/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4813/short-fuse-will-teslas-stock-price-close-below-1000-per-share-before-2021/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4119/what-will-be-the-sp-500-end-of-day-low-in-2020/

Comment by alexrjl on Stripe's first negative emissions purchases · 2020-07-29T07:22:06.523Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Predictions are now live, you can see the community predictions by mousing over the links below:

What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?

What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?

What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?

What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?

Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?

Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?

Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?

Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?

Comment by alexrjl on Delegate a forecast · 2020-07-29T06:53:00.250Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Ok awesome, thanks!

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-28T21:19:09.748Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I really like this and will work something out to this effect

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-28T13:16:12.941Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Do you want to have a look at the 2019 EA survey and pick a few things it would be most useful to get predictions on? I'll then write a few up.

Comment by alexrjl on Delegate a forecast · 2020-07-27T07:22:26.475Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Also had misunderstood this as being personal questions. If you prefer, replace me with something like:

A randomly selected person from the top ~50 recently active Metaculus users (so maybe this list or this one), excluding those who are already supers.

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-27T06:01:58.660Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

The best operationalisation here I can see is asking that we are able to attach a few questions if this form to the 2030 EA survey, then asking users to predict what the results will be. If we can get some sort of pre-commitment from whoever runs the survey to include the answers, even better.

One thing to think about (and maybe for people to weigh in on here) is that as you get further out in time there's less and less evidence that forecasting performs well. It's worth considering a 2025 date for these sorts of questions too for that reason.

Comment by alexrjl on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-26T22:31:10.618Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I'm kind of hoping that this thread ends up serving that purpose. There's also a thread on metaculus where people can post ideas, the difference there is nobody's promising to write them up, and they aren't necessarily EA ideas, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

(I do have some thoughts on the top level answer here, but don't have time to write them now, will do soon)

Comment by alexrjl on Delegate a forecast · 2020-07-26T22:27:59.947Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Assume that I will try to become a GJP registered superforecaster, giving up all the time I currently spend on other platforms and only focusing on making Good judgement Open predictions to the best of my ability, choosing questions based on whether they'll help me be a superforecaster, not how useful predictions are for the world. Let's say I'll give up after 2 years if I don't make it.

When do I become a superforecaster? Time interval now->2022, with an open upper bound indicating "didn't make it".

If it matters, assume I haven't seen your distribution, but if you also want to do a seperate distribution assuming I have seen it, that might be fun (not sure if it would converge though).

Comment by alexrjl on Stripe's first negative emissions purchases · 2020-07-24T08:17:47.318Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I thought this idea was really cool, and that working out how successful it's likely to be seemed important, so I've written a series of Metaculus questions on how these investments will pan out. The questions open in two days, and can be found here:

Stripe miniseries

Comment by alexrjl on Should local EA groups support political causes? · 2020-07-22T08:25:25.434Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Voting reform also. While there's some partisan opposition to it in some countries, it can certainly be presented in a way which is highly non-partisan.

Comment by alexrjl on Climate change donation recommendations · 2020-07-19T11:41:27.950Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

We deliberately didn't perform these because their primary goal is not emissions reduction, so we thought it might be misleading to include. If it helps, I can however tell you that I personally do allocate some of my monthly donations to GFI, but expect (95% confidence) that I would not do so if I felt that animals had no moral value.

Comment by alexrjl on Can the EA community copy Teach for America? (Looking for Task Y) · 2020-07-19T10:49:40.897Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

The more time I spend forecasting, the more I think it has lots of the features I was looking for in a good "Task Y":

  • It's fun and interesting.
  • It's beneficial for the people doing it; it helps people be Less Wrong<sup>TM<\sup> and plausibly has nontrivial signalling value in EA-adjacent circles for those who are good at it.
  • While the impact probably isn't huge, there's a reasonable case that, especially from a long-term perspective, it's not negligible, especially for something that can be done in your free time.
  • It's something that bright students and/or other people without much disposable income can easily participate in, which sets it apart from Earning to Give.
Comment by alexrjl on AMA or discuss my 80K podcast episode: Ben Garfinkel, FHI researcher · 2020-07-18T08:50:20.105Z · score: 14 (5 votes) · EA · GW

I have nothing to add to the discussion but wanted to say that this was my favourite episode, which given how big a fan I am of the podcast is a very high bar.

Comment by alexrjl on How do i know a charity is actually effective · 2020-07-17T14:25:04.734Z · score: 12 (5 votes) · EA · GW

At some point, with any charitable decision, you're going to have to trust someone; you're going to have to trust that the people running the charity are going to do what they say with the money, and you're also going to have to trust that the thing they say they are going to do is a good idea.

Donating based on the recommendations of a charity evaluator is still going to involve trusting someone, the difference is this time you're trusting someone who is indepedent.

Comment by alexrjl on Concern, and hope · 2020-07-16T21:56:13.217Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

This post does a much better job that I could manage of explaining how I've felt recently. Thank you for writing it.

Comment by alexrjl on Are there superforecasts for existential risk? · 2020-07-08T15:11:05.051Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

"Indeed, some people have actually joked betting low on the more existential questions since they won't get a score if we're all dead (at least, I hope they're joking)"

I think several of them aren't joking, they care more about feeling "smart" because they've gamed the system than the long-term potential consequences of inaccurate forecasts.

I do, like you, really hope that I'm wrong and they are in fact joking.

Comment by alexrjl on Are there superforecasts for existential risk? · 2020-07-07T10:09:51.833Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · EA · GW

As another very active user of metaculus recently, who's come from an EA background, I basically agree with all of the above, except that I don't think all the users are joking about betting low on the existential questions.

Comment by alexrjl on Deworming vs other GiveWell charities · 2020-07-05T07:08:09.071Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I wrote this a while ago, it wasn't intended as an update on Deworming but the claims I made about the evidence for Deworming in it were up-to-date at the time of writing.

Comment by alexrjl on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-02T13:17:02.284Z · score: 7 (8 votes) · EA · GW

Forecast your win probability in a fight against:

500 horses, each with the mass of an average duck.

1 duck, with the mass of an average horse.

(numbers chosen so mass is roughly equal)

Comment by alexrjl on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-06-30T20:58:22.974Z · score: 18 (13 votes) · EA · GW

Here's a ton of questions pick your favourites to answer. What's your typical forecasting workflow like? Subquestions:

  • Do you tend to make guesstimate/elicit/other models, or mostly go qualitative? If this differs for different kinds of questions, how?

  • How long do you spend on initial forecasts and how long on updates? (Per question and per update would both be interesting)

  • Do you adjust towards the community median and if so how/why?

More general forecasting:

  • What's the most important piece of advice for new forecasters that isn't contained in Tetlock's superforecasting?

  • Do you forecast everyday things in your own life other than Twitter followers?

  • What unresolved question are you furthest from the community median on?

Comment by alexrjl on Problem areas beyond 80,000 Hours' current priorities · 2020-06-26T13:22:35.182Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I think it depends somewhat on what you mean by longterm, but my (limited) understanding is that wild-animal welfare is currently very much in the "we should do some thinking and maybe some research stage but not take any actions until we know a lot more and/or have much greater ability to do so" stage, which does put it on a timeframe which is decidedly *not* "neartermist"

Comment by alexrjl on Impacts of rational fiction? · 2020-06-25T13:05:47.280Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I'd also love to see a fictional world with a moral system that was explictly a karmic-utilitarian moral system. That is, the consequences of actions for particular agents matter proportionally to the amount of utility previously generated by those agents.

Comment by alexrjl on Impacts of rational fiction? · 2020-06-25T12:14:39.145Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

What if you had a world where karma is discovered to be real, but the amount of good karma you get is explicitly longtermist consequentialist and focus on expected utility? It'd be a great way of looking at effectiveness, and you'd also be able to explore really interesting neglectedness effects as people pile into effective areas.

Comment by alexrjl on Modeling the Human Trajectory (Open Philanthropy) · 2020-06-21T11:29:54.149Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I really enjoyed the blogpost, and think it's really valuable work, but have been somewhat dismayed to see virtually no discussion of the final part of the post, which is the first time the author attempts to include an admittedly rough term describing finite resources in the model. It... does not go well.

Given a lot of us are worried about x-risk, this seems to urgently merit further study.

Comment by alexrjl on EA considerations regarding increasing political polarization · 2020-06-19T21:54:31.713Z · score: 3 (4 votes) · EA · GW

I'd strongly suggest adding this post to appendix 1, especially given its 235 comments.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YCPc4qTSoyuj54ZZK/why-and-how-to-make-progress-on-diversity-and-inclusion-in

Comment by alexrjl on EAGxVirtual Unconference (Saturday, June 20th 2020) · 2020-06-17T19:06:10.750Z · score: 13 (6 votes) · EA · GW

What is forecasting and how do I get started?

I'm currently teaching this as a 4x90 minute course. If there was sufficient interest I'd be happy to put together a half hour lightning version.

Edit: looks like I was about a week late having this idea, though I'm still happy to run this at some point if people want.

Comment by alexrjl on EA Forum Prize: Winners for April 2020 · 2020-06-11T13:54:43.452Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

It seems appropriate based on the content of my comment to spend the $50 buying copies of Doing Good Better or The Precipice for people in my social group who aren't EAs, so that's my current plan.

Edit: for reasons which should be fairly obvious, I don't think now is the best time to do this, so am also planning to wait a few weeks.

Comment by alexrjl on EAGxVirtual Unconference (Saturday, June 20th 2020) · 2020-06-11T08:55:25.147Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Sky and Danny, I'd be very interested to talk to either/both of you and share ideas about this. I've done quite a bit of EA outreach in my own school, having been teaching for the best part of a decade (some is discussed in my post history), as well as some outside. Please send a PM if you're interested and we can set something up.

Comment by alexrjl on What are some good charities to donate to regarding systemic racial injustice? · 2020-06-06T13:59:43.985Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

The main substantive objection seems to be that it's not demanding enough, especially compared to, for example, defunding all police departments. There's also lots of 'this state had some of these policies and still killed someone' type objections. I don't know enough about social science to be able to predict the effect of different people making demands of different strength. It's a little sad to see Sam Sinyangwe be called an apologist/shill for the police though, when regardless of what your prediction of the impact is he's pretty clearly someone who has dedicated his career to reducing rates of police violence.

Edit: there's a reply from @SamSwey here, followed by a ton of personal attacks on him and what looks like one legitimate question about methodology. https://twitter.com/samswey/status/1269298269055856641

Comment by alexrjl on Will protests lead to thousands of coronavirus deaths? · 2020-06-05T15:15:18.424Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Relevant metaculus question opening soon:

https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4590/how-many-confirmed-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-will-there-be-in-new-york-city-for-the-week-of-june-15th-to-june-21st/

Comment by alexrjl on Will protests lead to thousands of coronavirus deaths? · 2020-06-04T13:48:35.109Z · score: 21 (15 votes) · EA · GW

A couple more weak arguments pointing towards protesting now:

  • if protest success depends on number of people, the fact that many people are currently out of work may make current protests more likely to succeed.

  • if protests are about demonstrating strength of feeling, then saying (with one's actions) 'I care enough about this to risk a deadly disease' arguably does that pretty effectively.

  • There's also the question of whether protesting meaningfully affects the election, if so the effect size of that could dwarf everything else, but I don't have any idea which way it cuts and can see good arguments in both directions.

Comment by alexrjl on What are some good charities to donate to regarding systemic racial injustice? · 2020-06-02T11:03:23.310Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Upvoted, I didn't see that one, hopefully that's the case!

Comment by alexrjl on What are some good charities to donate to regarding systemic racial injustice? · 2020-06-02T06:18:40.118Z · score: 47 (31 votes) · EA · GW

It's really disappointing to see this post repeatedly down-voted without any responses. When people approach the EA community and ask about the most effective way to deal with an issue they care about, surely there's a better way to respond than "I think there are more pressing causes so I'm not even going to dignify your polite request with a polite response".

In answer to the question, there's not been a huge amount of EA research on this, mostly because, for several reasons, it tends to be more cost-effective to focus on the world's poorest countries if you intend on helping people today. However:

Comment by alexrjl on I Want To Do Good - an EA puppet mini-musical! · 2020-05-21T09:15:20.831Z · score: 6 (5 votes) · EA · GW

This is brilliant.

Comment by alexrjl on [deleted post] 2020-05-19T13:40:28.852Z

Yes, my reply focused entirely on the "Embed EA specifically as part of the curriculum" part of this. Encouraging ethics to be taught more widely is its own conversation, and one I haven't though much about. the downside risks in terms of reputational harm to EA are obviously much smaller, though I think the "poor first impression" concern still holds some water. In my experience, non-examinable but compulsory parts of the school curriculum tend not to be taken particularly seriously by either teaching staff or students.


I've slightly edited my post above to clarify how I think the downside risks I mentioned apply specifically in the case of board curriculum change.

Comment by alexrjl on [deleted post] 2020-05-19T08:56:07.072Z

I want to start off by saying I think the idea of getting EA messages to a broader audience is really important and exciting, and that high school students, especially in their final couple of years, are ambitious about helping the world and in the right context would be really excited by EA ideas. I've started off with this because a lot of the rest of this post is going to be quite negative. Hopefully you'll see why.

I think it would be really useful for anyone thinking of taking any action in this space to read this article very carefully. I have worked in a school for several years, and do run a club for the students where we talk about EA ideas, so I've spent a lot of time thinking about this, and talking to other members of the EA community about it. Broader outreach has also been tried, less successfully:

The thing that really worried me in your post was the phrase "at an early age when minds are malleable". EA ideas are not uncontroversial, and parents tend to react extremely badly to people trying to use the malleability of children's brains to convince them of a particular worldview. Debates about what gets included on national curricula are particularly heated, especially when it comes to religion, and it's not going to be possible to separate any reform to ethics teaching from discussion of religion.

Even ignoring potential reputational harm to the EA movement, your assessment of the tractability seems to assume no possibility of downside in terms of recruitment, a claim I also find concerning. First impressions can happen exactly once, and an unclear, unskilled, or otherwise unsuccessfuly outreach attempt (including, but not limited to, an "intro to EA" lesson taught by a non-specialist as part of a national curriculum) may "turn off" students who otherwise would have come across the ideas of effective altruism later and found them appealing.

In spite of all the above, I am a teacher who works in a school and does EA outreach, so I clearly don't think the idea is in principle bad. What I do think, however, is that it needs to be done very carefuly, with very high quality communication, and with a very keen eye on potential downsides. I'm extremely happy to talk at length to anyone considering something similar.

In terms of broad approaches, there are a couple of things I would like to see which I think are likely to be safe:

  • Books for schools, see this thread for some more detail. I think these lessen the risks above partly because they either aren't explicitly EA outreach, or are but have been very carefully considered (Doing Good Better has been really well received by some of my students).
  • Related to the above, I think above and beyond giving books away, it would be great to see some competitions with either EA ideas and book token prizes (not cash given the age groups involved), or EA books as prizes. Essay competitions about the future with a $100 voucher and a copy of The Precipice, or Human Compatible as a prize for top Computer Science Olympiad participants, are a couple of ideas here.
  • I'd love to see an organisation like 80k which focuses on careers advice for high school students, either helping students who seek them out (including with things like applications to top programmes and scholarships, test preparation if applicable etc.) or who provide a service to schools where they come in and talk about impact as one potential consideration to give to choosing a career. Again, in the latter case, I'd be much more keen on this if it was being very carefully considered and implemented by an organisation than as unilateral impact by individuals.
Comment by alexrjl on The best places to donate for COVID-19 · 2020-04-24T21:51:24.384Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

DMI has received a $200k grant from GiveWell. It looks like this means their funding needs in terms of the immediate response have been met, which is good news.

Comment by alexrjl on How to share the basic concept of EA on social media? (Facebook in my case) · 2020-04-24T16:42:05.868Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · EA · GW

I definitely think recommending the TLYCS podcast as a "this is a specific thing I really liked and am recommending" is a brilliant shout. Having said that, I think that seperately there's value in a post which says "this thing was so important to me I will spend money in order to make sure you get a copy".

Luckily, doing both is possible.

Comment by alexrjl on How to promote widespread usage of high quality, reusable masks · 2020-04-21T06:01:29.181Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

"I would be really curious to know how a mask like this could have a negative effect. Risk compensation should obviously considered, but otherwise I'm coming up blank."

I'm pretty sure that's exactly what a whole bunch of rationalists with no qualifications in epidemiology were saying about cloth masks before the Greg Lewis interview too...

Comment by alexrjl on How to share the basic concept of EA on social media? (Facebook in my case) · 2020-04-17T06:40:12.180Z · score: 23 (12 votes) · EA · GW

I think the effect of a "this is what I think about something you should think it too" post is likely to be extremely small, and could be slightly negative. This is partly because such posts about other things are incredibly common on social media, but also because there exist misconceptions about EA that are easy to believe and require high fidelity communication to overcome. A couple of ideas with a higher chance of success:

  • Share a link to a single specific article or podcast episode you liked, along with a detailed recommendation of why you liked it.
  • If you loved doing good better, post about that, and how it had a significant impact on your life, then offer to send a copy to anyone who asks (because it meant so much to you) on the condition that once they've read it, they pass it on to someone else and ask that person to pass it on afterwards etc. Even if each chain is only 1 or 2 people long, this is going to be a great use of money.
  • If you have a birthday/other occasion where you get bought gifts, ask for donations to a specific charity, explaining how you found out about them, how you know they are cost effective, and why you believe cost effectiveness is important. Set an example by donating yourself, ideally more than you'd expect a typical present to be.

The key theme here is I've found that specific things with specific personal recommendations have a bigger effect than general things with a general recommendation.

Comment by alexrjl on Measuring happiness increases happiness · 2020-04-16T11:26:25.221Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I think 'measuring a proxy for self reported happiness increases future measures of that proxy, when you give people feedback about what that proxy is saying, but not when you don't' might be a more accurate title, if less catchy.