It has, however, succumbed to a third — mathematical authority. Firmly grounded in Bayesian epistemology, the community is losing its ability to step away from the numbers when appropriate, and has forgotten that its favourite tools — expected value calculations, Bayes theorem, and mathematical models — are precisely that: tools. They are not in and of themselves a window onto truth, and they are not always applicable. Rather than respect the limit of their scope, however, EA seems to be adopting the dogma captured by the charming epithet shut up and multiply.
Personally I think equating strong longtermism with longtermism is not really correct. Longtermism is a much weaker claim. I highly doubt most longtermists are in danger of being convinced that strong longtermism is true, although I don't have any real data on it.
I think I would spend a substantial amount of money on prizes for people who seem to have done obviously really good things for the world. Giving $10M to scihub seems worth it. Maybe giving $5M to Daniel Ellsberg as a prize for his lifetime achievements. There are probably more people in this reference class of people who seem to me to have done heroic things, but haven't even been remotely well enough rewarded (like, it seems obvious that I would have wanted Einstein to die having at least a few millions in the bank, so righting wrongs of that reference class seems valuable, though Einstein did at least get a Nobel prize). My guess is one could spend another $100M this way.
I'm really surprised by this; I think things like the Future of Life award are good, but if I got $1B I would definitely not think about spending potentially $100m on similar awards as an EA endeavor. Can you say more about this? Why do you think this is so valuable?
I learned from stories 1 and 2 - thanks for the information!
Story 3 feels like it suffers from lack of familiarity with EA and argues against a straw version. E.g you write (emphasis added):
As the community grew it spread into new areas – Animal Charity Evaluators was founded in 2012 looking at animal welfare – the community also connected to the rationalist community that was worried about AI and to academics at FHI thinking about the long term future. Throughout all of this expected value calculations remained the gold star for making decisions on how to do good. The idea was to shut up and multiply. Even as effective altruism decision makers spread into areas of greater and greater uncertainty they (as far as I can tell) have mostly continued to use the same decision making tools (expected value calculations), without questioning if these were the best tools.
I agree with Issa about the costs of not giving reasons. My guess is that over the long run, giving reasons why you believe what you believe will be a better strategy to avoid convincing people of false things. Saying you believed X and now believe ~X seems like it's likely to convince people of ~X even more strongly.
I think there may be a misunderstanding – the title of this post is “Feedback Collected by CEA”, not “for” CEA.
This is fair, but I want to give some examples of why I thought this document was about feedback about CEA, with the hope of helping with communication around this in the future. Even after your clarification, the document still gives a strong impression to me of the feedback being about CEA, rather than about the community in general. Below are some quotes that make it sound that way to me, with emphasis added:
Summary of Core Feedback Collected by CEA in Spring/Summer 2019
The title doesn't mention what the feedback is about. I think most people would assume that it refers to feedback about CEA, rather than the community overall. That's what I assumed.
CEA collects feedback from community members in a variety of ways (see “CEA’s Feedback Process” below). In the spring and summer of 2019, we reached out to about a dozen people who work in senior positions in EA-aligned organizations to solicit their feedback. We were particularly interested to get their take on execution, communication, and branding issues in EA. Despite this focus, the interviews were open-ended and tended to cover the areas each person felt was important.
This document is a summary of their feedback. The feedback is presented “as is,” without any endorsement by CEA.
It's not clearly stated what the feedback is about ("CEA collects feedback", "solicit their feedback" without elaboration of what the feedback is about). The closest it gets to specifying what feedback might pertain to is when it's mentioned that CEA was particularly interested in feedback on execution, communication, and branding issues in EA. This is still fairly vague, and "branding" to me implies that the feedback is about CEA. It does say "...issues in EA", but I didn't pay that much importance.
This post is the first in a series of upcoming posts where we aim to share summaries of the feedback we have received.
In general, I assume that feedback to an organization is about the organization itself.
CEA has, historically, been much better at collecting feedback than at publishing the results of what we collect.
While unclear again about what "feedback" refers to, in general I would expect this to mean feedback about CEA.
As some examples of other sources of feedback CEA has collected this year:
We have received about 2,000 questions, comments and suggestions via Intercom (a chat widget on many of CEA’s websites) so far this year
We hosted a group leaders retreat (27 attendees), a community builders retreat (33 attendees), and had calls with organizers from 20 EA groups asking about what’s currently going on in their groups and how CEA can be helpful
Calls with 18 of our most prolific EA Forum users, to ask how the Forum can be made better.
A “medium-term events” survey, where we asked everyone who had attended an Individual Outreach retreat how the retreat impacted them 6-12 months later. (53 responses)
EA Global has an advisory board of ~25 people who are asked for opinions about content, conference size, format, etc., and we receive 200-400 responses to the EA Global survey from attendees each time.
All of these are examples of feedback about CEA or its events and activities. There are no examples of feedback about the community.
I think the confusion comes from the lack of clear elaboration in the title and/or beginning of the document of what the scope of the feedback was. Clarifying this in the future should eliminate this problem.
EA headlining money and health as a cause priority while dropping education. + spending no money on education is straight out saying a lot about the priorities of EA.
EA gives zero value to education, and that is fundamentally wrong.
I don't think the last sentence follows from the ones before it. EA is fundamentally about doing the most good possible, not about doing good in every area that is valuable. EA will (hopefully) always be about focusing on the relatively few areas where we can do the most good. Not funding almost everything in the world doesn't mean that EA thinks that almost everything in the world has zero value. It is true that education for the sake of education is not a priority for EAs, but it doesn't mean that EAs think that education isn't important. In fact EA is very disproportionately composed of highly educated people - presumably at least some of these people value education highly.
I want to echo this. I would love to see CEA talk more about what they see as their mistakes and achievements, but this felt like a confusing mixture of feedback about some aspects of CEA (mostly EA Global, EA Forum, and the Community Health team) and some general feedback about the EA community that CEA only has partial control over. While CEA occupies an important position in EA, there are many factors beyond CEA that contribute to whether EA community members are smart and thoughtful or whether they're not welcoming enough.
None of the images display for me either. This is what it looks like for me:
Let's see how this works graphically. First, we start with tractability as a function of dollars (crowdedness), as in Figure 1. With diminishing marginal returns, "% solved/$" is decreasing in resources.
Next, we multiply tractability by importance to obtain MU/$ as a function of resources, in Figure 2. Assuming that Importance = "utility gained/% solved" is a constant, all this does is change the units on the y-axis, since we're multiplying a function by a constant.
Now we can clearly see the amount of good done for an additional dollar, for every level of resources invested. To decide whether we should invest more in a cause, we calculate the current level of resources invested, then evaluate the MU/$ function at that level of resources. We do this for all causes, and allocate resources to the highest MU/$ causes, ultimately equalizing MU/$ across all causes as diminishing returns take effect. (Note the similarity to the utility maximization problem from intermediate microeconomics, where you choose consumption of goods to maximize utility, given their prices and subject to a budget constraint.)
While I think that was a valuable post, the definition of ideology in it is so broad that even things like science and the study of climate change would be ideologies (as kbog points out in the comments). I'm not sure what system or way of thinking wouldn't qualify as an ideology based on the definition used.
A general comment about this thread rather than a reply to Khorton in particular: The original post didn't suggest that this should be a brainstorming thread, and I didn't interpret it like that. I interpreted it as a question looking for answers that the posters believe, rather than only hypothesis generation/brainstorming.
I'm sorry to see the strong downvotes, especially when you've put in more effort on explaining your thinking and genuinely engaging with critiques than perhaps than all other EA Fund granters put together. I want you to know that I found your explanations very helpful and thought provoking, and really like how you've engaged with criticisms both in this thread and the last one.
We will likely not be able to make the following types of grants:
Self-development that is not directly related to community benefit
In order to make grants the public benefit needs to be greater than the private benefit to any individual. So we cannot make grants that focus on helping a single individual in a way that isn’t directly connected to public benefit.
Is this in response to some of the criticisms of the April 2019 Long Term Future grants in this thread or elsewhere?
Are people with disabilities or (especially) people who are intersex or non-binary under-represented in EA? My intuition is that there may be a greater proportion of them in EA than in the general population, but I haven't checked this. Or did you mean that their opinions, experiences, and perspectives might not be very visible?
A list of people I can think of right now whose AMA I would at least consider asking a question on (non-exhaustive):
General categories: Employees at EA orgs, people with deep domain expertise in specific areas, EAs who've spent a long time researching a particular topic, EAs who want to do an AMA, non-EAs who want to do an AMA in good faith
Specific people: Toby Ord, Nick Beckstead, Nick Bostrom, Rob Wiblin, Ben Todd, Holden Karnofsky, Elie Hassenfeld, Kelsey Piper, Dylan Matthews, Nate Soares, Oliver Habryka, Julia Wise, Jeff Kaufman, Buck Shlegeris, Claire Zabel, Khorton, Larks, Jason Methany, Eric Drexler, Rachel Glennester, Michael Kremer, Peter Singer, Michelle Hutchinson, Holly Elmore, Kit Harris, kbog, Phil Trammell, Peter Hurford, Ozzie Gooen, Hilary Greaves, Julia Galef, Anna Salamon, Carl Shulman, Hauke Hillebrandt, Brian Tomasik, Luke Muehlhauser, Helen Toner, Scott Alexander, Simon Beard, Kaj Sotala, Tom Sittler, etc
What do you think are the things or ideas that most casual EAs don't know much about or appreciate enough, but are (deservedly or undeservedly) very influential in EA hubs or organizations like CEA, 80K, GPI, etc? Some candidates I have in mind for this are things like cluelessness, longtermism, the possibility of short AI timelines, etc.
I agree that the impact of this decision is likely to be very small, but trying to analyze a complicated phenomenon can be personally beneficial for improving your skills at analyzing the impact of other phenomenon. In general, it seems good for EAs to practice analyzing the impact of various interventions, as long as they keep in mind that the impact of the intervention and the direct value of the analysis might be small.
Thanks for offering this service! I'd like to share a draft/idea with you (the second example in my comment here) but I don't want to use my personal email since I want to keep my account anonymous. Is there a way I could get feedback from you without creating an anonymous email?
I like the idea of having separate categories for professional work and amateur/some other categorization work. I'd still like to encourage the professional work to be posted here, but encouraging non-professional work is also important.
I just skimmed some of the recent posts on your website and liked them! What makes you think that they're not good enough to be posted here? They definitely seem less comprehensive than some of your (very comprehensive) posts here, but still more than good enough to post here.
Thank you! Do you happen to have any advice or feedback on how I'm planning to write it? I'm tempted to make it fairly short and open it up for other people to comment on with their own experiences, but I'm worried that a short, feelings focused post won't get a lot of engagement. Trying to make it more comprehensive by e.g. compiling some of the ways the EA community ends up signaling that it really wants highly talented people (and almost never signals the opposite) might make it more engaging, but would also decrease the likelihood that I'll publish this anytime soon.
I could also pose it slightly differently as a question post on how people feel about their place in the community.
Interesting. I hadn't heard of sealioning before. You're right about the thing I'm pointing to being somewhat different. I think EAs want to encourage good criticisms of EA and want to be the kind of people and movement where criticisms are received positively. I think this often leads to EAs being overly generous with criticism posts on an object level, although I don't know whether this is positive or negative on aggregate.