Posts

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience 2021-05-27T18:51:37.191Z
What important questions are missing from Metaculus? 2021-05-26T14:03:57.791Z
Charles_Dillon 's Shortform 2020-12-03T17:10:14.467Z

Comments

Comment by Charles_Dillon on What important questions are missing from Metaculus? · 2021-06-10T17:22:23.655Z · EA · GW

That's in pending now, as are a few other questions you may be interested in, though not identical to the ones you list.

I'll post a response here in a few weeks once most of the questions I intend to write are actually live with a summary.

Comment by Charles_Dillon on What important questions are missing from Metaculus? · 2021-06-08T13:36:54.722Z · EA · GW

"Will the US stock market close by 2120?"



For this, would you prefer to condition on something like there being no transformative AI, or not? I feel like sometimes these questions end up dominated by considerations like this, and it is plausible you care about this answer only conditional on something like this not happening.

Comment by Charles_Dillon on What important questions are missing from Metaculus? · 2021-05-27T09:10:44.254Z · EA · GW

Thanks for these!


"When will the longest-lived foundation or DAF owned by an EA make its last grant?" 

  • EA defined as someone who identifies as an EA as of this prediction

Just to be clear, you specifically mean to exclude not-yet-EAs who set up DAFs in, say, 2025?

"What annual real return will be realized by the Good Ventures investment portfolio 2022-2031?" 

  • Can be calculated by Form 990-PF, Schedule B, Part II, which gives the gain of any assets held
  • Might make more sense to look at Dustin Moskowitz's net worth
    • But that doesn't account for spending

It might be interesting to have forecasts on the amount of resources expected to be devoted to EA causes in the future, e.g. by more billionaires getting involved. This could be useful for questions like "how fast should Good Ventures be spending their money?" if we expect to have 5 more equally big donors in 2030 that might suggest they should be spending down faster than if they are still expected to be the biggest donor by a wide margin. 

Comment by Charles_Dillon on Charles_Dillon 's Shortform · 2020-12-03T17:10:15.951Z · EA · GW

Ray Dalio is offering 10,000 free $100 charity girtcards to the first people who sign up.

https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1334543462063104001?s=19

https://redefinegifting.tisbest.org/

Max $100k per charity