What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Thanks for these!
"When will the longest-lived foundation or DAF owned by an EA make its last grant?"
- EA defined as someone who identifies as an EA as of this prediction
Just to be clear, you specifically mean to exclude not-yet-EAs who set up DAFs in, say, 2025?
"What annual real return will be realized by the Good Ventures investment portfolio 2022-2031?"
- Can be calculated by Form 990-PF, Schedule B, Part II, which gives the gain of any assets held
- Might make more sense to look at Dustin Moskowitz's net worth
- But that doesn't account for spending
It might be interesting to have forecasts on the amount of resources expected to be devoted to EA causes in the future, e.g. by more billionaires getting involved. This could be useful for questions like "how fast should Good Ventures be spending their money?" if we expect to have 5 more equally big donors in 2030 that might suggest they should be spending down faster than if they are still expected to be the biggest donor by a wide margin.