🔎 Discover More Questions Relevant to You With Metaculus's New Filter & Sort Tools
Where do you disagree with other forecasters? Which community predictions have shifted the most? And what was that nanotech forecast you meant to update? Metaculus has introduced new filter & sort tools that provide more control over the forecast feed so you can find the questions that matter to you.
🕛 New Metaculus Feature: Now You Can Set Custom Forecast Notifications
Metaculus has upgraded its forecast notifications to make it easier to follow the questions you care about so you can keep your predictions fresh and stay up to date as stories develop. Set a single notification that alerts you whenever the Metaculus community's prediction shifts, when new comments are made, when a question nears its close date, or at regular intervals over a question's life. Learn more about forecast notifications and how you can use them here.
Metaculus is conducting its first user survey in nearly three years. If you have read analyses, consumed forecasts, or made predictions on Metaculus, we want to hear from you! Your feedback helps us better meet the needs of the forecasting community and is incredibly important to us.
Take the short survey here — we truly appreciate it! (We'll be sure to share what we learn.)
🔬 Metaculus Officially Launches API
Metaculus has officially launched the Metaculus API, providing access to a rich, quantitative database of aggregate forecasts on 7000+ questions. Start exploring, analyzing, and building here.
New Metaculus Feature: Reaffirming Predictions
Now you can more easily find predictions that need updating and reaffirm those you stand by. Learn more about this new feature here.
Hey @jackva, are you asking about adding more questions to this tournament or about creating a prize pool for some other set of questions of your choosing? If the latter, you can email us at firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss developing a new initiative!
It's a great idea, and I like how you've fleshed it out. I'll pass this along to our Product team.
For your calibration plot, you can actually use the 'evaluated at' dropdown and watch your plot adjust on the fly.
Hey Nathan — currently, there are only plans to publish the forecasts on Metaculus. We'll let you know if that changes, however.
Metaculus is building a team dedicated to AI forecasting
The speed, sophistication, and impacts of AI technology development together comprise some of the most astonishing and significant events of our lifetimes. AI development promises both enormous risks and opportunities for society. Join our AI forecasting team and help humankind better navigate this crucial period.
Open roles include:
Machine Learning Engineer - AI Forecasting
You’ll work to enhance the organization and searchability of our AI analyses, ensure that the AI-related data and thinking that we rely on is up-to-date, comprehensive, and well organized, and deliver (via modeling) forecasts on an enormous set of questions concerning the trajectory of AI.
Research Analyst - AI Forecasting
You’ll engage deeply with ideas about the future of AI and its potential impacts, and share insights with the AI research and forecasting communities and with key decision makers. You’ll use crowd forecasting to help generate these insights, writing forecasting questions that are informative and revealing, facilitating forecasting tournaments, and coordinating with Pro Forecasters.
Quantitative Research Analyst - AI Forecasting
You’ll use quantitative modeling to improve our ability to anticipate the future of AI and its impact on the world, enhance our AI-related decision making capabilities, and enable quantitative evaluation of ideas about the dynamics governing AI progress.
You can learn about our other high-impact, open positions here.
At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of stakeholders and contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action.
We are hiring for a number of roles, including the following:
CTO (Chief Technology Officer)
We've recently received some excellent applications saying "I wasn't sure if you were still hiring for this position." If you're reading this, know that we are!
Hi Pablo, we're accepting new writers on a rolling basis and we don't have a planned date for when we'll stop.
Hi Benjamin, these are great questions! I work with Metaculus and wanted to add a bit of color here:
To your question about how to see the Metaculus Prediction, that's located: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#tachyon-costs
—basically one has to be of a sufficient "level", and then pay out some tachyons (the coin of the realm) to unlock the Metaculus Prediction for that question. That said, in this case, we're happy to share the current MP with you. (I'll message you here in a moment.)
And as to how the MP is calculated, the best resource there was written by one of the founders, and lives in this blog post: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
To your question about catastrophic risk from an unknown source, the table in the post doesn't include that bit, as it's only summing the %s of the different catastrophic risk questions, but you're right that you can get something like it from the question you link to:
Which just refers to that 10% decrease by any means, full stop. The Metaculus Prediction there is lower than the Community Prediction, FYI, but is indeed above the 14% you get from summing the other questions. So that makes some sense given that there are the other possibilities, however remote, that are not explicitly named. But it's also true that there are different predictors on each question, and also the linked to forecast is not explicitly pitched as "summing the other catastrophes up gives you 14% and so this linked to question is meant to produce a forecast of 14+X%, where X is the probability of unnamed catastrophes."
I hope that was useful. Please do reach out if you'd like to continue the conversation.