Cultured meat predictions were overly optimistic
I've also wondered what reasons there might be for the apparent discrepancy between these predictions and reality. I feel like the point re technical problems you emphasised is probably among the most important ones. My first thought was a different one, though: wishful thinking. Perhaps wishful thinking re clean meat timelines is an important factor for explaining the apparently bad track record of pertinent predictions. My rationale for wishful thinking potentially being an important explanation is that, in my impression, clean meat, even more so than many other technologies, is tied very closely/viscerally to something – factory farming – a considerable share (I'd guess?) of people working on it deem a moral catastrophe.
Open Thread: August 2021
Hey everyone, excited to be part of this! :) My name is Dario Citrini.
I was born, grew up in, currently live and also study in Zurich, Switzerland. I've just completed my second semester of studying political science (major) and philosophy (minor) at the University of Zurich. I currently plan to pursue a master's in political science with a specialisation in PPE (philosophy, politics, economics) and am generally interested in interdisciplinary research on “the big questions”, especially regarding suffering, the future, and uncertainty.
The plight of badly-off humans and other animals has been a constant emotional involvement and intellectual interest of mine for many years, but only comparably recently have I embarked on my path to study how I could apply my compassion more systematically in a way that helps me to be more effective in making this world a better place. I've been fascinated by the philosophy of and social movement around EA since early 2020 and am excited about the profound impact EA has had on my life ever since.
Hundreds of sometimes broad, sometimes more specific intellectual interests have accumulated over the last few years. Those I'm currently most excited about (varyingly hardly to somewhat or maybe moderately versed) include, in no particular order:
- effective altruism (esp. crucial considerations / viewquakes)
- metaethics (and meta above that) (esp. moral epistemology)
- moral (axiological and deontic) uncertainty (and meta above that)
- global priorities research and axiology
- population ethics, longtermism(s) / ethics of the (far) future, risk ethics, and fanaticism
- suffering-focused ethics (esp. asymmetries, commensurability, and lexicality in ethics)
- transhumanism and the intersection of sci-fi, technology, science, and philosophy
- collective action problems and international relations
- evolutionary psychology and moral psychology (esp. their intersection)
- game theory and decision theory
- moral circle expansion (esp. animal ethics, wild animal suffering, artificial sentience)
- the philosophy, politics, and economics of emerging technologies (esp. interdisciplinary research on AGI (artificial general intelligence) value alignment)
I occasionally post stuff I find interesting and important on facebook and I have recently posted on my blog for the first time. I'm soon going to make an EA Forum post about this compilation of resources on animal ethics and helping animals.
Please feel free to reach out to me to recommend or/and ask for any resources on any topic! :)