Posts

Possible way of reducing great power war probability? 2019-11-28T04:27:19.768Z · score: 30 (19 votes)
Americans give ~4%, not 2% 2019-11-03T19:10:13.012Z · score: 34 (13 votes)
Remote local group leaders? 2019-10-13T21:43:20.814Z · score: 24 (12 votes)
David Denkenberger: Loss of Industrial Civilization and Recovery (Workshop) 2019-02-19T15:58:01.214Z · score: 19 (8 votes)
Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) Progress Report & Giving Tuesday Appeal 2018-11-21T05:20:37.922Z · score: 16 (12 votes)
Cost-Effectiveness of Foods for Global Catastrophes: Even Better than Before? 2018-11-19T21:57:05.518Z · score: 21 (23 votes)
[Paper] Interventions that May Prevent or Mollify Supervolcanic Eruptions 2018-01-15T21:46:27.407Z · score: 20 (20 votes)
How you can save expected lives for $0.20-$400 each and reduce X risk 2017-11-27T02:23:44.742Z · score: 24 (28 votes)
Should we be spending no less on alternate foods than AI now? 2017-10-29T23:28:39.440Z · score: 32 (34 votes)
Futures of altruism special issue? 2016-12-18T19:16:02.114Z · score: 1 (3 votes)
Saving expected lives at $10 apiece? 2016-12-14T15:38:38.561Z · score: 15 (15 votes)
Advice Wanted on Expanding an EA Project 2016-04-23T23:20:02.455Z · score: 4 (4 votes)
Essay Competition on Preparation for Global Food Catastrophes 2016-03-17T01:49:12.131Z · score: 6 (6 votes)
Investment opportunity for the risk neutral 2016-01-25T15:29:48.579Z · score: -2 (12 votes)
My Cause Selection: Dave Denkenberger 2015-08-16T15:06:25.456Z · score: 6 (6 votes)

Comments

Comment by denkenberger on Halffull's Shortform · 2020-09-26T19:39:30.068Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Some of the agricultural catastrophes that the solutions that the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) are working on address include super crop disease, bacterium that out competes beneficial bacteria, and super crop pest (animal), all of which could be related to genetic modification.

Comment by denkenberger on Estimation of probabilities to get tenure track in academia: baseline and publications during the PhD. · 2020-09-22T06:50:21.994Z · score: 9 (4 votes) · EA · GW

In the US, about half of people who start PhD programs get the degree. Also, a big factor that I thought I commented about here (I guess they removed comments) is that most tenure track positions at least in the US are teaching intensive, so there is not much time for research.

Comment by denkenberger on How do political scientists do good? · 2020-09-17T00:06:38.635Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

This says a trebling of grain prices is likely if there is an abrupt 10% food production shortfall. Rice price ~tripled in a year in 2007 - the shortfall was small but there were a lot of export restrictions. There has been some work on the correlation of food prices and riots and other political turmoil.

Comment by denkenberger on How do political scientists do good? · 2020-09-16T04:11:49.768Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Good questions-usually when EAs talk about loss of civilization, they mean a loss of electricity/industry globally, or a loss of cooperation outside the tribe globally (loss of cities, the anthropological definition of civilization). One recent 80,000 Hours podcast guest estimated 10% chance of collapse of civilization with 2°C slow global warming. This has a survey with large variation in the percentage loss in value of the long-term future associated with full-scale nuclear war and with 10% agricultural shortfalls (e.g. regional nuclear war, such as India Pakistan). This has a poll with large variation in the percentage loss in the value of long-term future associated with either 10% or global loss of electricity/industry. This has a collection of existential risk estimates, and some relate to loss of civilization.

Comment by denkenberger on Net Salary after Tax deductions US · 2020-09-10T03:47:30.446Z · score: 5 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I believe the 50% of AGI tax deductible limit refers to donating appreciated stock. Here is one AGI calculator. Here's a good post on charity and taxes in the US. Aaron Hamlin might be good to contact about how stock from your company is treated.

Comment by denkenberger on Net Salary after Tax deductions US · 2020-09-09T17:24:04.479Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

That's great that you are considering giving so much! When people say what percent of their income they are donating, usually they use the pretax income, which is the adjusted gross income (AGI) in the US. This is less than the total compensation because of things like benefits, some contributions to retirement, etc. I am not sure how stock options work, so hopefully someone else can join in on this. Unfortunately your calculator does not tell you the AGI, but you could probably find one that does. It seems to me that the calculator is giving broadly reasonable results. Basically, your net income doesn't decrease as much as your charity amount because of the tax advantage. It used to be that the maximum you could give with a federal tax advantage was 50% of AGI, but that got changed to 60% a couple years ago. And I've read that this year it is actually 100%. Of course even if the tax advantaged limit is 60% of AGI, you could still give more.

Comment by denkenberger on Calling on EA members to help fight infectious disease · 2020-09-07T04:15:38.027Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I would be interested in hearing about it, and why you think it is better than things like this that can filter 99.7% for ~$20.

Comment by denkenberger on How do political scientists do good? · 2020-09-07T03:16:32.655Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I think it would be useful to get a political science take on the question of what the probability might be of collapse of civilization/long-term future impact at different levels of severity of catastrophe. Intuitions vary orders of magnitude on this.

Comment by denkenberger on Introducing the Legal Priorities Project · 2020-09-07T02:04:48.289Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Nice! Did you consider having nuclear war as an additional focus area?

Comment by denkenberger on It's Not Hard to Be Morally Excellent; You Just Choose Not To Be · 2020-08-30T22:22:15.911Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

My philosophy is to earn like upper middle class, live like middle class, and donate like upper class. One can typically accomplish this by roughly maintaining the consumption per person that one has earlier in life (e.g. college or grad school). Sure, there is temptation to have consumption creep as is happening in most of one’s peers, but it is not technically difficult like rock climbing, or nearly as bad as living with hunger on a diet. An exception for this being effective may be if one’s consumption is visible to those who determine how fast one advances in one’s career, and they don’t appreciate one’s choosing of charity.

Comment by denkenberger on The applicability of transsentientist critical path analysis · 2020-08-22T21:02:58.554Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I appreciate the work you put into this and I particularly like the visualizations. I assume Mt means million metric tons, but then you say the biomass is 7 Mt. Plant biomass is 550 billion tons carbon, which means about 1 trillion tons dry matter. So what do you mean? Also, you say “4 B + 30 B = 32B” – is this some rounding issue?

Comment by denkenberger on A New X-Risk Factor: Brain-Computer Interfaces · 2020-08-18T18:16:07.195Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for this important work. For reference, some estimates of existential risk from nuclear war are one or two orders of magnitude higher than in The Precipice, e.g. here.
When you were discussing the difficulty of overthrowing a BCI dictator, I couldn't help thinking resistance is futile.

Comment by denkenberger on Cost-Effectiveness of Air Purifiers against Pollution · 2020-08-09T18:38:43.026Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW
Putting these numbers together, we arrive at $5230 per DALY for India and $15200 per DALY for Austria (model here).

This is actually a very good deal in developed countries, where they typically pay ~$100,000 per DALY. This would imply that nearly all non-rural buildings in those countries should have HEPA filters, especially because there are economies of scale. The fact that they don't I think indicates that the economics are not nearly as good when you take into account ventilation (related to Ben's comment). Also, I think there is very large uncertainty in the health benefits.

Comment by denkenberger on Addressing Global Poverty as a Strategy to Improve the Long-Term Future · 2020-08-09T05:37:23.041Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks!

Comment by denkenberger on Addressing Global Poverty as a Strategy to Improve the Long-Term Future · 2020-08-09T03:39:14.780Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Interesting point about the neglectedness of global development with an eye toward the long-term future. Could you say more about what that might look like?
It could go the other way, however, because some models indicate that work on AGI safety and alternative foods might be a cheaper way of saving lives in less-developed countries than bednets (though maybe not than promoting economic growth).

Comment by denkenberger on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-31T05:09:05.350Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks - very helpful.

Comment by denkenberger on What questions would you like to see forecasts on from the Metaculus community? · 2020-07-30T21:54:30.718Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

For EAs who are investing to give, more questions about the market would be great, e.g. my comment here.

Comment by denkenberger on Delegate a forecast · 2020-07-30T18:22:38.042Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

What will the maximum reduction in the S&P 500 from today's value (July 30, 2020) be over the next 12 months? Having a probability for each maximum percentage reduction would be very helpful for investing now (e.g. whether it makes sense to short). I could only see value of S&P 500 on June 30, 2021 in Good Judgement.

Comment by denkenberger on The case for investing to give later · 2020-07-09T05:46:50.204Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for the useful model. I think you should report ranges, because one would expect with the one-year multiplier of 1.01, that you would get a 10 year multiplier of 1.01^10 = 1.1. Even with the ranges, it seems counterintuitive to me. If you take the 5th percentile of a 0.84 multiplier, that gives a 10 year 0.17 multiplier, which is close to the Guesstimate result. However, if you take the 95th percentile of a 1.3 multiplier, that gives a 10 year multiplier of 14, which is very different from the Guesstimate value of about 1000. I assume this is because of the fat tail. This shows that this is a high risk strategy from the perspective of the donor-more than 50% of the time they have a smaller impact by investing. But they have some chance of having an enormous impact with investing.

Comment by denkenberger on Insects Raised for Food and Feed — Global Scale, Practices, and Policy · 2020-07-09T03:48:37.988Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for the valuable post. I think it is possible that insects could become competitive with fish meal, and both are high-protein. But I don’t think they could be competitive with low protein feed, because basically you are feeding them low protein feed (animal waste is the possible exception, but that could be fed to non-insects as well). What is the current typical cost per dry kilogram wholesale of insects for feed? When I checked, it was ~$9/kg wholesale, which is far higher than animal feed at ~$0.5/kg. Your source for the two units of feed for one unit of insects did not specify units, so I went to the original, and it looks like it is comparing dry feed and wet animal. This makes sense because if this were based on calories, it sounds too high even if you had ideal circumstances (no diseases, cannibalism, etc.). This is because insects typically cannot synthesize protein, so if they are 50% protein and the feed is 10% protein by calories, maximum conversion efficiency would be 20% even if they emitted no nitrogen in their waste.

Comment by denkenberger on EA Survey 2019 Series: How many people are there in the EA community? · 2020-07-04T04:47:18.870Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW
It seems fairly uncontroversial to me that someone who does a highly impactful, morally motivated thing, but hasn't even heard of the EA community, doesn't count as part of the EA community (in the sense discussed here).

I agree, but if they are a GWWC member, then they would have heard of EA, and more importantly, likely have been influenced by EA. What I'm interested in is how many people have been influenced by EA to do EA-like things – I guess this is David Nash’s “EA network?” Do we agree this >10,000 people?

Comment by denkenberger on EA Survey 2019 Series: How many people are there in the EA community? · 2020-07-02T00:29:45.918Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for the important post! I'm very interested in hearing from others (and particularly Giving What We Can leadership) as to whether their members would be considered EAs. In discussion a few years back, I was under the impression that the consensus was they were the gold standard for EAs. I would put them at a three or four on your scale minimum. But it could be true that a significant fraction do not self identify as EAs. So then it is a question of whether action or identification is more important-I would favor action.

Comment by denkenberger on The EA movement is neglecting physical goods · 2020-06-24T05:25:26.660Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Two areas in EA that utilize engineering are clean meat and recovering from catastrophes that block the sun or disable electricity/industry (e.g. Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED)).

Comment by denkenberger on Effective Thesis: updates from 2019 and call for collaborators · 2020-06-24T04:56:51.641Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Great work! For the US, according to this, about one third of Nobel prizes were awarded to people who did their undergraduate at a non top 100 global university. And you don't have to win a Nobel Prize in order to become an EA! So I think there is lots of potential talent for EA outside the global top 100, at least at the undergraduate level. At the graduate level, I think the talent tends to concentrate more, but I still think there is significant talent outside the global top 100.

Comment by denkenberger on Investing to Give Beginner Advice? · 2020-06-22T15:56:01.526Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · EA · GW

In the US, it's now up to 60% of income that can be donated as cash with a tax deduction.

Comment by denkenberger on What are some good charities to donate to regarding systemic racial injustice? · 2020-06-10T05:17:12.902Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Has anyone seen a study on how much of the income gap is due to colonialism?

Comment by denkenberger on Case Study: Volunteer Research and Management at ALLFED · 2020-04-29T23:43:14.461Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for your feedback. People inside the academic system (Joshua Pearce and myself) are advising most of this research and we publish mostly in peer reviewed journals. As for the policy engagement, we are working with government experts such as Tim Benton. You can see some of our recent policy-related work here.

Comment by denkenberger on Are there any public health funding opportunities with COVID-19 that are plausibly competitive with Givewell top charities per dollar? · 2020-03-15T17:38:52.664Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks, though it appears that the article says that China's production rate of masks has still not quite recovered to last year's rate (50 billion per year, or 137 million per day, if the above number counts all days in the year).

Comment by denkenberger on All Bay Area EA events will be postponed until further notice · 2020-03-11T05:18:44.317Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Edited for clarity.

Comment by denkenberger on All Bay Area EA events will be postponed until further notice · 2020-03-10T02:36:21.503Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I was thinking of short term as weeks, e.g. canceling events in March instead of waiting until April to cancel events from then on.

Comment by denkenberger on All Bay Area EA events will be postponed until further notice · 2020-03-08T19:13:08.989Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

1. Good point
2. Without sustained protective measures, we only get herd immunity after a certain number get infected, roughly 50% for R0 = 2. So I don't think short-term measures alone (e.g. earlier travel or event banning) would impact this.
3. Again, you need sustained efforts, not just a difference in short-term effort to flatten the curve.
4. Good point
5. Without 4, it appears that the outbreak would have already peaked by the time we develop, test, and scale up a vaccine
6. This is possible, but most think other countries will not take as extreme measures

So overall, this does give significant probability that short-term actions could have high impact, so they do look worth doing.

Comment by denkenberger on Quantifying lives saved by individual actions against COVID-19 · 2020-03-08T18:59:48.041Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I agree that if we have sustained protective measures, it would not only lower the peak but also reduce the total number of people exposed. However, I am defining a short-term action as doing something we would not normally do in the next few weeks, like canceling a conference or early travel bans. I think this would delay the peak, but it's not clear to me that the peak would be appreciably lower. Furthermore, this says there are about 60,000 full function ventilators and 160,000 total ventilators. If 10% percent of people are infected at the peak and 3% of those require ventilation, that would be 1 million requiring ventilation. So even in the US, and with moderate protective measures, it looks like most people would not be getting the ventilation they need (though lowering the peak will still help somewhat). Of course if the protective measures actually stopped the spread early, then that would be a big benefit.

Comment by denkenberger on All Bay Area EA events will be postponed until further notice · 2020-03-07T19:18:17.944Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for making your model explicit. See my comment here. Basically, the crux is that if there is going to be global spread, it could be that the final mortality is independent of short-term actions. It would be great for an epidemiologist to weigh in.

Comment by denkenberger on Quantifying lives saved by individual actions against COVID-19 · 2020-03-07T19:00:03.735Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I agree that it is useful to make simple models. The consensus appears to be that there will be a global spread, so then it appears that short-term actions could have very high impact. However, one could also argue that then the end state is going to be the same, so that would mean short-term actions would have no impact. It is true if social distancing (physical distance, handwashing, gloves, masks, etc.) is maintained for the entire pandemic, then R0 falls below one sooner, so fewer people get the disease. You can see a model of this here. On the 80,000 Hours podcast, they say that reducing travel out of the place of origin by 90% in the beginning only delays the outbreak 3 weeks, likely not enough time to get a vaccine. So which one is right, a huge impact due to short-term actions or basically nothing?

Comment by denkenberger on Potential High-Leverage and Inexpensive Mitigations (which are still feasible) for Pandemics · 2020-03-06T03:54:55.862Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Yes, this morning in Fairbanks it was -32F (-36C)!

Though many of the recommendations seem like common sense in retrospect, the reality is that these interventions are relatively neglected. We would have been better off if we had done some planning ahead of time about how to scale up personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks. Furthermore, common sense varies. For some, it is common sense that a mask will protect you from illness, but people do not realize that the pore size of a simple polymer surgical mask is significantly larger than most evaporated cough/sneeze droplets. At the other end of the spectrum, common sense might lead you to believe that an improvised fabric mask would be ineffective because the pore size is larger than the typical surgical mask made of polymer. And indeed the median particle that is sneezed would go through a fabric mask. However, when you look at the droplet size distribution, the majority of mass (and therefore viruses) are actually contained in the larger droplets that would be stopped by a fabric mask. Similarly, common sense might lead you to believe that a glove needs to be rubber because that is how we get most of them. But if dexterity is not critical, one can use plastic (e.g. garbage bags). Another piece of common sense that I had before embarking on this project was that this PPE would just slow down the spread, but eventually everyone would get the disease, so the mortality at the end would be the same (assuming a vaccine is not developed in time). But in reality, since people who have had the disease generally have immunity, the number of people that infected person spreads to eventually falls below one, and the virus dies out, not infecting everyone. So these simple PPE interventions could actually significantly reduce overall mortality. Furthermore, if people can do more distancing early on, the spread of the virus could be stopped early, preventing a pandemic. So there really is a lot that we can do on the non-medical side.

Comment by denkenberger on Potential High-Leverage and Inexpensive Mitigations (which are still feasible) for Pandemics · 2020-03-05T21:46:23.194Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Same as in the post above here.

Comment by denkenberger on Potential High-Leverage and Inexpensive Mitigations (which are still feasible) for Pandemics · 2020-03-05T05:13:52.734Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Depending on how the situation develops, I think our suggestions about homemade versions of masks, gloves, etc. could also be useful. Hopefully we do not get to the point of loss of critical industries and needing backup plans.

Comment by denkenberger on AI Impacts: Historic trends in technological progress · 2020-02-24T05:32:33.772Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

What about the cost of a painting/photograph? You would have to deal with issues of resolution and color, but it seems like there could be a significant discontinuity going to digital.

Comment by denkenberger on Has anyone done an analysis on the importance, tractability, and neglectedness of keeping human-digestible calories in the ocean in case we need it after some global catastrophe? · 2020-02-18T18:44:50.763Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for your interest—all of ALLFED's published research is here. But what is not yet published is that it is looking like the ocean fertilization effect will not be as strong as we had originally estimated. However, there are ~10 billion tons of deeper water fish (200 to 1000 m down), though they would be expensive to harvest. We think producing seaweed would be low cost and feed many people.

Comment by denkenberger on AI Impacts: Historic trends in technological progress · 2020-02-16T01:02:14.860Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

This is fascinating work! Small comment: you mentioned that the practical lens concentration limit is about 50% of the intensity at the surface of the sun and that we likely achieved that 1000 years ago. But then you say that magnesium combustion reaches 3370 Kelvin. Since the sun is about 5800 Kelvin and the total radiation goes with the fourth power of the absolute temperature, that would mean magnesium would only be 1/9 the intensity of the sun. So that would mean that magnesium combustion would not have surpassed a good magnifying glass.

Comment by denkenberger on Update on civilizational collapse research · 2020-02-13T04:10:09.365Z · score: 7 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for writing this up. I would love to see more detail in general, but in particular on this point:

The highest leverage point for intervention in a potential post-collapse environment would be at the state level. Individuals, even wealthy individuals, lack the infrastructure and human resources at the scale necessary to rebuild effectively. There are some decent mitigations possible in the space of information archival, such as seed banks and internet archives, but these are far less likely to have long term impacts compared to state efforts.

So you're assuming that the states still function after the collapse? What do you think they would do and what would you like them to do differently? What do you think about interventions post catastrophe to reduce the likelihood of collapse? For instance, there is the idea of a backup shortwave radio system that I mentioned in our joint salon that would not require a state.
Why is the Internet archive (I assume printed out) not important, because there would already be enough information preserved in books? I don't think that would apply so much in the case of seeds because we might not be able to continue growing the high-yielding varieties that are dependent on fertilizer and pesticides.

Comment by denkenberger on Clean cookstoves may be competitive with GiveWell-recommended charities · 2020-02-12T23:04:01.928Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I think this is important to investigate given the high mortality. I noticed that you ignored the savings in fuel. My understanding was that this could be quite significant and the stoves could pay for themselves either in saved fuel cost or saved opportunity cost of time from gathering the fuel. If this were true, you might be able to argue that the life savings and climate benefit came at zero cost. You would still have the issue that people are not willing to pay for them, perhaps because they have a high discount rate. Loans might ameliorate this.

Comment by denkenberger on Update on civilizational collapse research · 2020-02-11T19:35:37.038Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW
I think most nuclear winter scenarios also have less than a 90% food reduction impact

The Open Philanthropy funded nuclear winter project will soon have an estimate of global agricultural impact, but I think without relocation of crops, 90% production loss is plausible. How that translates into mortality is complicated. It may be possible to relocate crops towards the equator, but the likelihood of that happening would depend on preparation ahead of time for coordination, etc. On the positive side, we have some food storage, which has the potential to take ~10% of the population through a nuclear winter with complete agricultural collapse if perfectly protected. However, on the other extreme, if food were distributed equally, then perhaps a 70% food supply reduction would mean everyone starves. The reality is likely to be between these extremes of perfect protection and equal distribution. Of course the situation changes dramatically if we can produce alternative foods.

Comment by denkenberger on Four components of strategy research · 2020-02-03T07:56:57.661Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for mentioning ALLFED! As we note in the model you link to, a more updated model is here.

Comment by denkenberger on Cotton‐Barratt, Daniel & Sandberg, 'Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction' · 2020-02-02T18:38:52.975Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I heartily agree-I've been saying for years that response and resilience are neglected in the X risk/GCR community relative to prevention.

Comment by denkenberger on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-29T05:20:11.463Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Have you looked at how long pandemics have lasted in the past? I think it's a lot longer than five weeks.

Comment by denkenberger on Doing good is as good as it ever was · 2020-01-26T22:12:18.641Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I agree that absolute impact is the better way of looking at this. You talk about the original pitch of EA of donating 10% of your salary and saving quite a few lives. But now that same person can donate the same amount of money to the long-term future and potentially save orders of magnitude more lives in expectation. So I think EA has gotten more exciting. I could see if someone has inflexible career capital in the global poverty or animal space and little ability to donate and became convinced of the value and tractability of the long-term future, that this could decrease one's relative impact. But I think this is less common than the case of being able to pivot (at least somewhat) towards higher impact. So I think a change in enthusiasm is more related to general trends with age and movements, rather than a change in perception of relative impact.

Comment by denkenberger on Financial Planning Advice for Charitable Giving · 2020-01-25T03:58:54.479Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Welcome to the EA Forum! Kudos to you for your generosity! You’ve probably already joined Giving What We Can, but you may also be interested in Bolder Giving (giving high percentages, but not focused on effective giving).

Since you can deduct state taxes and interest on a mortgage, I would guess you are already exceeding the $14,000 standard deduction. So then I think it would be important to donate every year to make sure you are saving taxes on the money you make in the top bracket. Here is a post that might be helpful. There are also quite a few posts (e.g. this recent one) on investing with an EA mindset.

Comment by denkenberger on Growth and the case against randomista development · 2020-01-19T18:05:01.593Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW
Rural to urban migration: Unskilled (subsistence) farmers migrate to cities and start working in factories. Over night, this increases their productivity many times over.

Perhaps tangential, but unless the urban workers are fed by imports, in order to allow rural to urban migration, the country needs agricultural improvements so that people can feed a lot more than themselves. So I think the green revolution technologies of fertilizer, pesticides, and improved crop varieties (mentioned by the OP) are quite important beyond the direct food supply improvement, and the penetration of these is much lower in Africa.

Comment by denkenberger on Dataset of Trillion Dollar figures · 2020-01-18T05:24:54.304Z · score: 10 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Wealth is accumulated money, while GDP is per year. Debt is also accumulated, while deficit is per year.