Posts

Friends or relatives in Oregon? Please let us know! Updates & actions to help Carrick win 2022-05-14T05:11:32.989Z
Compiling resources comparing AI misuse, misalignment, and incompetence risk and tractability 2022-05-05T16:16:56.527Z
Snowball Fund - A Low-Cost, Low-Risk, and High-Upside Experiment 2022-04-02T12:06:57.947Z
PeterWallich's Shortform 2022-03-03T05:59:41.471Z
Exit opportunities after management consulting 2021-08-16T10:54:04.827Z
Maximizing impact during consulting: building career capital, direct work and more. 2021-08-13T13:59:32.077Z
Considerations and advice on entering management consulting 2021-08-11T13:06:12.995Z

Comments

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Bad Omens in Current Community Building · 2022-05-22T11:45:01.291Z · EA · GW

Thanks so much for sharing your thoughts in such detail here :)

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Where are the cool places to live where there is still *no* EA community? Bonus points if there is unlikely to be one in the future · 2022-05-11T12:40:00.973Z · EA · GW

Not sure about best places, though I have a friend who's working on setting up an EA community in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

It might be worth pointing out that, in my experience, EAs seem quite unusual in tending to talk about EA almost all the time, e.g. at parties and other events as well as at work. I've often found this inspiring and energising, but I can also understand how someone could feel overwhelmed by it.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Compiling resources comparing AI misuse, misalignment, and incompetence risk and tractability · 2022-05-05T18:30:57.180Z · EA · GW

Thanks. Yes, that was the survey I mentioned.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Organizations prioritising neat signals of EA alignment might systematically miss good candidates · 2022-04-15T11:43:24.468Z · EA · GW

Great post!

The fact that some  orgs already say things like 'knowledge of effective altruism is preferred but not essential' probably doesn't solve this issue. I can imagine that many jobs are competitive enough that you could only reasonably have a shot if you ticked certain boxes related to EA knowledge/experience, even if you might be a better and more-aligned candidate but don't have obvious evidence.

I think there's information value from doing lots of 10-minute speed-interviews, at least sometimes, so that we can get a sense of how many competent and EA-aligned people might be off EA orgs' radar.

p.s. I can confirm that Evan has been an excellent volunteer for the EA & Consulting Network.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Free-spending EA might be a big problem for optics and epistemics · 2022-04-14T17:18:49.166Z · EA · GW

Thank you very much for this post. I thought it was well-written and that the topic may be important, especially when it comes to epistemics.

I want to echo the comments that cost-effectiveness should still be considered. I have noticed  people (especially Bay Area longtermists) acting like almost anything that saves time or is at all connected to longtermism is a good use of money. As a result, money gets wasted because cheaper ways of creating the same impact are missed. For example, one time an EA offered to pay $140 of EA money (I think) for me for two long Uber rides so that we could meet up, since there wasn't a fast public transport link. The conversation turned out to be a 30-minute data-gathering task with set questions that worked fine when we did it on Zoom instead.

Something can have a very high value but a low price. I would pay a lot for potable liquid if I had to, but thanks to tap water that's not required, so I would be foolish to do so. In the example above, even if the value of the data were $140, the price  of getting it was lower than that. After taking into account the value of time spent finding cheaper alternatives, EAs should capture the surplus whenever possible.

As a default, I would like to see people doing a quick internal back-of-the-envelope calculation and scan for cheaper alternatives, which could take a minute or five. Not only do I think this is cost-effective; I think it helps with any issues of optics and alienation as well, because you only do crazy-expensive-looking things when there's not an obvious cheaper alternative.

It would also be nice to have a megathread of cheaper alternatives to common expenditures.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Considerations and advice on entering management consulting · 2022-04-11T13:23:17.193Z · EA · GW

In my experience (interviewed 2020/21), Case In Point is no longer useful, except perhaps to skim through for some ideas.

My understanding is that, when consulting firms started using case interviews, they could get away with using a handful of standardised formats (profitability diagnosis, M&A, etc.). Case In Point provides rigid frameworks to apply to those standardised formats. But the firms have got wise to this. They used these frameworks to test thinking but got 'framework monkeys' using canned frameworks, so now they often give cases that don't fit those frameworks and/or expect candidates to produce better / more specific insights.

I think the most helpful resources are those that focus on developing the skills being tested in case interviews. In my opinion, improving at the actual skills firms look for is a robust way to do well, is more fun, and is more useful for consulting and life.

I'd recommend the free course and articles from craftingcases.com, as well as casecoach.com. (BCG London gave all interviewees free CaseCoach access.)

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Making Community Building a more attractive career path · 2022-04-08T09:22:55.540Z · EA · GW

I think that community building has historically been massively promoted as important by EA communicators and key institutions, but then implicitly undervalued by the actual prestige, funding and support offered to existing or aspiring community builders. 

 

This is my impression too. For university groups, CEA was trying to fix this with the Campus Specialist program, which was then discontinued. I'm curious why an org isn't hiring people on 2-year contracts / longer-term roles to lead promising city and national groups, since only being able to do the job on a grant already seems lower-prestige. (Someone might think: if people cared about community building enough, they would hire me to do it in a more stable way.)

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Snowball Fund - A Low-Cost, Low-Risk, and High-Upside Experiment · 2022-04-04T12:10:54.538Z · EA · GW

Daniel's comments:

On point #1, there's a critical distinction in the type of "follow-on" strategy we're employing, which is a standard template $100K into a large number of companies (generally known as the "spray and pray" model). This is characterized by low diligence per deal as opposed to most VC's who do still put in a decent amount of effort. Spray and pray of course has it's drawbacks in terms of validating the quality of the deal flow, but that's the crux we're exploring here regarding EA-aligned founders being potentially higher quality than average.

On point #2 not to be autobiographical but I personally am an example of an individual who would not have started an EA project without the onramp from Founders Pledge to actually introduce me to the community networks to get Snowball Fund up and running.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Snowball Fund - A Low-Cost, Low-Risk, and High-Upside Experiment · 2022-04-04T11:16:16.441Z · EA · GW

Great! Looking forward to working together.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Snowball Fund - A Low-Cost, Low-Risk, and High-Upside Experiment · 2022-04-02T16:39:53.946Z · EA · GW

I think this is an important point and there's some truth to it: EA 'startups' are different from venture-backed startups. When you say 'targeting', what do you mean here exactly, and do you have any ideas on how to do this without increasing time costs a lot? An advantage of our proposed approach is that it's time-cheap because it's systematic (with some caveats, we offer investment if and only if someone else has). But if there were a cheap way to make this better at finding the people most helpful for EA projects, that would be great.

---

 If the claim is that, as a result of the differences between EA and venture-backed 'startups', it's not worth doing something like this to attract entrepreneurs to EA, I'm not sure I agree:

1. There are some common skills to building both types of startup - you're creating a new org to do something untested with a small number of people and often not much money, so there are at least some similarities. Maybe the overlapping skillset is quite small. Do you think you had already built that skillset before leaving your startup, such that any extra skill-building in that overlapping core wouldn't be helpful for your work now? I'm unsure about this because I haven't really built a startup of either type.

2. It's not just reality but also the EA community.
a. Not everything can or should be tested by building a minimum viable product and seeing what reality throws at it, but for some types of problems this is useful. And, even for these types of problems, I think the default approach most EAs have is usually that  problems are best solved by doing research and analytical thought instead. I think this probably leads to a bias against trying things. (We think hard when it's appropriate, but also often when it would be better to just try it and see.)
b. I know of at least one example of bias against action in the community - someone applied for funding to distribute EA books at UPenn and said it was initially declined because CEA was concerned about possible downside risks. Both they and I thought this seemed crazy.
c. Technical skills are required for many of the types of startups that VCs fund, but there are few technically-skilled entrepreneurs in the EA community. This suggests EA is pushing away even entrepreneurs who could contribute to technically demanding projects.

3. Earning to give can still be high impact, especially if you're right and a traditional entrepreneur wouldn't be well-placed to start an EA (mega)project. If it works, Snowball Fund could either beat market returns (increasing the money in EA) or pay a small price (difference between market returns and its returns) per entrepreneur. If this means a higher number of EA-aligned entrepreneurs earning-to-give, or more giving from each, it may still be very cost-effective.
 

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Snowball Fund - A Low-Cost, Low-Risk, and High-Upside Experiment · 2022-04-02T13:11:15.345Z · EA · GW

Good point - thanks for flagging this.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on Time-Time Tradeoffs · 2022-04-01T19:20:53.961Z · EA · GW

Yes. Classic example for me is doing tasks that don't require much mental energy when I'm tired & reminding myself to do this (even though I sometimes can't be bothered) because it saves me having to do these tasks at a later time when I could be doing more cognition-heavy things.

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on PeterWallich's Shortform · 2022-03-04T23:11:29.954Z · EA · GW

It looks like they're quite similar, though I haven't personally used Google Flights.

Apparently, its advantage over Google Flights is that it searches more online travel agents, so can sometimes uncover cheaper prices (though some online travel agents are a bit of a pain): https://scottscheapflights.com/guides/google-flights-vs-skyscanner

Comment by Peter4444 (FlagrantBeaver) on PeterWallich's Shortform · 2022-03-02T20:56:23.825Z · EA · GW

Many EAs take a lot of flights. If you're not already using it, consider using Skyscanner. It scans airlines and online travel agencies and can find cheap deals, flights from nearby airports, etc. And it may save you time and money.

Posting this partly because I'd like to support a norm of sharing knowledge when it's low cost and has even a small chance of being very useful for someone.

Note: I'm not associated with Skyscanner; I've just used it for a while.