Posts

What has EA Brazil been up to? 2020-11-09T14:18:47.771Z
The Precipice: a risky review by a non-EA 2020-08-08T14:40:03.324Z

Comments

Comment by fmoreno on GCRs mitigation: the missing Sustainable Development Goal · 2021-06-10T17:20:26.306Z · EA · GW

Great work Angela! Congrats!

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On “5.Cons” I would have added info hazard.

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Not the main topic of this piece but I wanted to comment on that: I agree that violence/security has become too much of a "right-wing issue" and that this is a problem for solving the problem. However, I think this also derives from the almost absent problem of violence in 1st world countries. Both you and I are from Latin America and we know how much of a issue this is in here. The rule-of-law is the most basic precondition so that people may have some stability in life and therefore social development. However, I cannot remember if I ever saw that debated in EA circles. I will therefore use this opportunity to leave this link to a TEDTalk by Gary Haugen from International Justice Mission: https://www.ted.com/talks/gary_haugen_the_hidden_reason_for_poverty_the_world_needs_to_address_now

Comment by fmoreno on Investment Portfolios as 'Direct Payments'? · 2020-08-27T15:52:43.565Z · EA · GW

If I understood you correctly it seems that the closest thing that you are looking for is microfinance, i.e., you borrow the poor money and they (in theory) prosper and even return the money to you, with an interest. However, microfinance don't seem to be very effective. Here is GiveWell analysis on it https://www.givewell.org/international/economic-empowerment/microfinance

Comment by fmoreno on Addressing Global Poverty as a Strategy to Improve the Long-Term Future · 2020-08-09T02:54:35.913Z · EA · GW

Great article! Congrats.

It may be argued that this century may be the most critical for global warming so lifting current people from poverty to a fuel-burning prosperity may be worse than leaving it to later on. In the future better technology may compensate for the fact that we would have more people to be lifted from poverty and into prosperity. For eg, prosperity may be less linked to fuel-burning then it is now or maybe we just made those geoengineering projects work so we can keep on burning oil like crazy. (I'm not defending any of this).

On empowering insufficiently benevolent people: I would need to better look at data but it seems many terrorists don't come from poor families but from middle-class somewhat well-educated backgrounds, many attending university. Maybe educating and lifting people from poverty may, on first, exacerbate this problem. However, it seems to me that the real issue here is religious fanaticism and other radical ideologies, so popular in universities, east or west. I really like the approach from Idea beyond borders on this issue - this project is backed by Pinker who is very found of EA movement and maybe EA should pay more attention to initiatives like that.

Comment by fmoreno on Propose and vote on potential EA Wiki entries · 2020-08-08T17:50:22.116Z · EA · GW

Sorry if offtopic but how do I remove a tag after wrongly using it?

Comment by fmoreno on A List of EA Donation Pledges (GWWC, etc) · 2020-08-08T17:05:05.865Z · EA · GW

Actually Generation Pledge has a 10% minimum on the inherited assets.

Comment by fmoreno on Growth and the case against randomista development · 2020-08-08T12:19:21.376Z · EA · GW

Excerpt from Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo book, Poor Economics:

"Economists (and other experts) seem to have very little useful to say about why some countries grow and others do not. Basket cases, such as Bangladesh or Cambodia, turn into small miracles. Poster children, such as Côte d’Ivoire, fall into the “bottom billion.” In retrospect, it is always possible to construct a rationale for what happened in each place. But the truth is, we are largely incapable of predicting where growth will happen, and we don’t understand very well why things suddenly fire up.

Given that economic growth requires manpower and brainpower, it seems plausible, however, that whenever that spark occurs, it is more likely to catch fire if women and men are properly educated, well fed, and healthy, and if citizens feel secure and confident enough to invest in their children, and to let them leave home to get the new jobs in the city.

It is also probably true that until that happens, something needs to be done to make that wait for the spark more bearable. If misery and frustration are allowed to have their way, and anger and violence take over, it is not clear that the spark will ever arrive. A social policy that works, that keeps people from striking out because they feel that they have nothing to lose, may be a crucial step toward preserving the country’s date with that elusive takeoff.

(...)

We may not have much to say about macroeconomic policies or institutional reform, but don’t let the apparent modesty of the enterprise fool you: Small changes can have big effects. Intestinal worms might be the last subject you want to bring up on a hot date, but kids in Kenya who were treated for their worms at school for two years, rather than one (at the cost of $1.36 USD PPP per child and per year, all included), earned 20 percent more as adults every year, meaning $3,269 USD PPP over a lifetime. The effect might be lower if deworming became universal: The children lucky enough to have been dewormed may have been in part taking the jobs of others. But to scale this number, note that Kenya’s highest sustained per capita growth rate in modern memory was about 4.5 percent in 2006–2008. If we could press a macroeconomic policy lever that could make that kind of unprecedented growth happen again, it would still take four years to raise average incomes by the same 20 percent. And, as it turns out, no one has such a lever."

Comment by fmoreno on Growth and the case against randomista development · 2020-03-07T19:25:40.603Z · EA · GW

"[R. W. Hafer] found that a country’s average IQ predicted its subsequent growth in GDP per capita, together with growth in noneconomic measures of well-being like longevity and leisure time. An 11-point increase in IQ, he estimated, would accelerate a country's growth rate enough to double well-being just 19 years rather than 27.

Policies that hurry the Flynn effect along, namely investments in health, nutrition, and education, could make a country richer, better governed, and happier down the road."

Extracted from Pinker, Enlightment Now.

Health, nutrition and education improvements also have positive impact on GDP growth, not just the other way around. By expanding access to vitamin A (Helen Keller Foundation, recomended intervention by GW) for eg, we are also having a tremendous, long-run, economic impact.

Comment by fmoreno on Open Thread #39 · 2018-06-11T01:26:38.035Z · EA · GW

Some doubts on Malaria First: would it be credible to eliminate malaria (say 97% eliminated) only with bed nets? Second doubt: according to AMF for every 100 to 1000 bed nets a life is saved. I believe GiveWell’s numbers are closer to 1life/200bednets. It is estimated that by 2015 the number of malaria deaths are about 450,000 per year (this number seems to be stagnated in 2016 and 2017 so let’s use it in this example). Following this reasoning, 90,000,000 (90 million) mosquito nets would be needed to reach (almost) the end of malaria? Or are we in those situations where costs and difficulties sharply rise as progress is made?