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Comment by James Miller on The Fermi Paradox has not been dissolved · 2020-12-13T14:05:46.068Z · EA · GW

Robin Hanson has a recent powerful argument for why if  life is extremely rare, we should be extremely surprised if it originated on earth.  If life needs, say,  ten required steps, and the probability of each step occurring is proportional to the volume of the potential biosphere then if one planet has, say, 64 times the volume of another, all else equal, it will be 64^10 more likely to achieve all ten steps.  As there are many rocky planets much bigger than earth, we should be shocked if life is rare and originated on earth.

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/try-try-or-try-once-great-filter.html

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/searching-for-eden.html