Posts

Pablo Stafforini’s Forecasting System 2020-09-16T20:46:09.967Z · score: 62 (27 votes)

Comments

Comment by jungofthewon on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-24T16:41:13.795Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

https://elicit.ought.org/builder/RT9kxWoF9 My distribution! Good question Linch; it had a fun mix of investigative LinkedIn sleuthing + decomposition + reasoning about Linch + thoughts that I could sense others might disagree with.

Comment by jungofthewon on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-19T11:47:03.400Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I'll make a distribution. Do you want to make a distribution too and then we can compare?

Comment by jungofthewon on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-02T12:16:33.202Z · score: 21 (9 votes) · EA · GW

Non-forecasting question: have you ever felt like an outsider in any of the communities you consider yourself to be a part of?

Comment by jungofthewon on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-02T12:16:05.144Z · score: 1 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Which types of forecasting questions do you like / dislike more?

Comment by jungofthewon on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-06-30T22:43:44.479Z · score: 3 (7 votes) · EA · GW

I will forecast a personal question for you e.g. "How many new friends will I make this year?" What do you want to ask me?

Comment by jungofthewon on Racial Demographics at Longtermist Organizations · 2020-05-01T18:19:54.549Z · score: 21 (12 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks so much for doing this work! I'm pretty excited about making progress on this. If others want to collaborate, please ping jungwon@ought.org.

Comment by jungofthewon on Dataset of Trillion Dollar figures · 2020-01-17T00:24:53.349Z · score: 11 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Also like this idea! Confused about Moody's revenue - it's $1T? Is it not ~ $4.2BN with 12,000 employees (as opposed to 1,300)?

Comment by jungofthewon on Ought: why it matters and ways to help · 2019-08-09T17:13:38.189Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for this post, Paul.

NOTE: Response to this post has been even greater than we expected. We received more applications for experiment participant than we currently have the capacity to manage so we are temporarily taking the posting down. If you've applied and don't hear from us for a while, please excuse the delay! Thanks everyone who has expressed interest - we're hoping to get back to you and work with you soon.