Posts

Khorton's Shortform 2019-08-17T12:02:26.342Z · score: 8 (2 votes)
Why do EA events attract more men than women? Focus group data 2019-05-18T13:29:24.187Z · score: 75 (40 votes)
What skills would you like 1-5 EAs to develop? 2019-03-01T11:01:11.654Z · score: 37 (24 votes)
Are men more likely to attend EA London events? Attendance data, 2016-2018. 2018-08-09T15:51:29.187Z · score: 36 (34 votes)
Effective Volunteering 2018-01-24T16:09:11.731Z · score: 15 (12 votes)

Comments

Comment by khorton on Effective Altruism and Free Riding · 2020-03-28T23:02:31.331Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

This was one of the most important posts I've read on the Forum all year. I'll definitely be thinking about it for a while. Thank you for posting it!

Comment by khorton on What are EA project ideas you have? · 2020-03-27T18:40:59.908Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Why wouldn't you just ask four people who you trust to review each idea in confidence? Why formalize it or insist they reciprocate it?

Comment by khorton on Why not give 90%? · 2020-03-25T13:35:33.044Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Also, many EAs don't identify as utilitarians, like me!

Comment by khorton on What posts you are planning on writing? · 2020-03-24T08:53:56.827Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for commenting! I actually forgot I was meaning to do this... Maybe I'll find some time over the next few weeks!

Comment by khorton on Is COVID an opportunity for non-EAs to give effectively? · 2020-03-24T05:09:21.268Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I think a lot of people will be interested in giving right now, and you can influence your friends by sharing a favourite charity or talking about your own donations.

However, I would also caution all of us to "read the room" as this situation evolves. A lot of our friends will be suffering from losing jobs or loved ones and it might sometimes be harmful to ask them for charity donations.

Comment by khorton on Why not give 90%? · 2020-03-23T17:32:27.429Z · score: 6 (5 votes) · EA · GW

You could discuss this on a new top level post or this Facebook group: https://m.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1863633717221799&ref=content_filter

Comment by khorton on Max_Daniel's Shortform · 2020-03-23T14:02:25.399Z · score: 8 (3 votes) · EA · GW

"The WHO declaring a pandemic has a bunch of major legal and institutional consequences. E.g. my guess is that among other things it affects the amounts of resources the WHO and other actors can utilize, the kind of work the WHO and others are allowed to do, and the kind of recommendations the WHO can make."

Are you sure about this? I've read that there aren't major implications to it being officially declared a pandemic.

This article suggests there aren't major changes based on 'pandemic' status https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51839944

Comment by khorton on AMA: "The Oxford Handbook of Social Movements" · 2020-03-18T12:06:52.423Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

What are some of the key challenges other movements have faced when building a truly global, cross cultural movement? How have they responded?

Comment by khorton on AMA: Elie Hassenfeld, co-founder and CEO of GiveWell · 2020-03-18T02:51:15.722Z · score: 12 (7 votes) · EA · GW

You started hiring people to look into policy interventions last year, right? How's that going?

Comment by khorton on Are there any public health funding opportunities with COVID-19 that are plausibly competitive with Givewell top charities per dollar? · 2020-03-13T10:54:47.904Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Possibly something around domestic violence? China saw a rise in DV during its lockdown.

I could imagine the possibility of spending a month in quarantine with your abuser could inspire a sudden uptick in victims wanting to leave, if there's somewhere for them to go.

Comment by khorton on Are there any public health funding opportunities with COVID-19 that are plausibly competitive with Givewell top charities per dollar? · 2020-03-13T10:37:33.790Z · score: 2 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I'm sure funding for hand sanitizer, soap, masks etc in refugee camps would be welcome.

Lobbying for better healthcare/sanitation for prisoners may be effective in certain countries.

Comment by khorton on April Fool's Day Is Very Serious Business · 2020-03-13T10:32:33.111Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Great idea. Let's do it!

Comment by khorton on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T09:01:50.322Z · score: 12 (7 votes) · EA · GW

Honestly I would assume less; I voted for Mental Health thinking of Strong Minds.

Comment by khorton on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T09:00:14.751Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

I think this is two different things:

  1. yes I was being a bit condescending, sorry
  2. I wasn't trying to say what should be a debate; I was trying to lend accuracy to the discussion of what is a key debate in the EA community.
Comment by khorton on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T08:50:07.033Z · score: 25 (17 votes) · EA · GW

(I don't think this is considered a debate by most people - my read is that less than 5% of people involved with EA consider psychedelics a plausible EA cause area, possibly less than 1%)

Comment by khorton on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-08T23:47:03.508Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Along the same lines of community health and movement growth, in what situations should individual censor their views or expect to be censored by someone else (eg a Forum moderator or Facebook group admin)?

Comment by khorton on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-08T17:38:54.007Z · score: 47 (36 votes) · EA · GW

Should EA be large and welcoming or small and weird? Related: How important is it for EAs to follow regular social norms? How important is diversity and inclusion in the EA community?

To what extent should EA get involved in politics or push for political change?

Comment by khorton on COVID-19 brief for friends and family · 2020-03-07T22:04:22.074Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Chief Medical Advisor in the UK, Professor Chris Whitty, "told MPs on the health and social care committee that half of all coronavirus cases in the UK are most likely to occur in just a three-week period, with 95% of them over a nine-week period."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

Comment by khorton on Why We Think Tobacco Tax Advocacy Could be More Cost-Effective than AMF · 2020-03-06T23:53:02.565Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I agree that a 5% chance of a 20% tax increase over one year with £100k seems optimistic

Comment by khorton on [Cross Post] Why I don't give money to beggars on the street · 2020-03-03T12:06:55.275Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I know you didn't have bad intentions and I'm glad you're taking the feedback on board.

Comment by khorton on [Cross Post] Why I don't give money to beggars on the street · 2020-03-02T21:24:16.540Z · score: 10 (6 votes) · EA · GW

I'm sorry that you had a bad experience and I'm glad that you feel you're better able to cope now.

I didn't really like this post, if I'm honest. I don't think it's always a 'mistake' for someone to give money to someone who's asking for it. I also think it's not very nice to say 'these kinds of people'. This kind of reminds me of people trying to only give their money to the 'deserving poor'.

I think we can recognise that both people who live on the street and also people with malaria need help, and we can be sad that we don't have enough money to fix both problems right away.

Comment by khorton on COVID-19 brief for friends and family · 2020-02-29T02:09:28.155Z · score: 3 (4 votes) · EA · GW

The UK's National Health Service is advising that it's fine to continue accepting grocery deliveries even when you have coronavirus.

If you live somewhere with multiple grocery services and are somewhat flexible with what you eat, I don't predict needing a food stockpile, although it doesn't necessarily seem harmful to buy a few canned goods!

Comment by khorton on Khorton's Shortform · 2020-02-18T09:08:27.125Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Estimates of the mortality of Covid19 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjv89nz3drnAhUOWxUIHf79CuUQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw1JKl5ksIPgOf43c2F5_olD&cshid=1582016318282

Comment by khorton on Khorton's Shortform · 2020-02-18T09:07:41.266Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

That's a really good question! Maybe there just genuinely is too much uncertainty for any estimates, in their views.

I'd honestly even be interested in deaths currently attributable to climate change, but I'm sure even that is a hard problem.

Comment by khorton on Khorton's Shortform · 2020-02-17T23:53:58.066Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

This is the first serious attempt I've seen at estimating deaths from climate change.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02323/full#h15

Comment by khorton on How much will local/university groups benefit from targeted EA content creation? · 2020-02-16T14:59:42.094Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

If most other groups aren't using the resources that currently exist, I'm not sure it's a good use of time to create further "generic" resources - although I can appreciate your frustration with the amount of time it's taking you!

Comment by khorton on How much will local/university groups benefit from targeted EA content creation? · 2020-02-16T00:29:57.460Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

It looks like you're creating some pretty high-quality resources! I can see why they're fairly time intensive.

Have you shared these with other local groups before now? Have they been adopted or adapted there?

Comment by khorton on My personal cruxes for working on AI safety · 2020-02-13T08:26:18.910Z · score: 18 (9 votes) · EA · GW

"And it seems to me that the stories that I have for how my work ends up making a difference to the world, most of those are just look really unlikely to work if AGI is more than 50 years off. It's really hard to do research that impacts the world positively more than 50 years down the road."

This was nice to read, because I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone actually admit this before.

You say you think there's a 70% chance of AGI in the next 50 years. How low would that probability have to be before you'd say, "Okay, we've got a reasonable number of people to work on this risk, we don't really need to recruit new people into AI safety"?

Comment by khorton on Who should give sperm/eggs? · 2020-02-12T22:47:38.667Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

HFEA says that most donors "create one or two families, with one or two children each". The legal maximum is 10 families.

"You’ll normally need to go to a fertility clinic once a week for between three and six months to make your donation."

https://www.hfea.gov.uk/donation/donors/donating-your-sperm/

Comment by khorton on A Qualitative Analysis of Value Drift in EA · 2020-02-12T11:57:21.026Z · score: 10 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Great work! I appreciate how you used formatting and concrete suggestions to adapt this for the Forum

Comment by khorton on What posts you are planning on writing? · 2020-02-12T08:45:49.777Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Thinking of writing a shallow cause profile on lobbying for country-to-country debt relief

Comment by khorton on Clean cookstoves may be competitive with GiveWell-recommended charities · 2020-02-11T12:07:20.695Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · EA · GW

I really appreciate these shallow reviews, as well as the comments providing additional sources!

Comment by khorton on Who should give sperm/eggs? · 2020-02-08T08:41:19.853Z · score: 9 (7 votes) · EA · GW

*depending on the country. In the UK, you can legally only be paid up to £750. Given that you'll have to take a couple days off work, I don't think the money is really a deciding factor in this case.

Comment by khorton on Who should give sperm/eggs? · 2020-02-08T08:39:23.513Z · score: 16 (13 votes) · EA · GW

Although sperm and egg donation have similarities (they can both result in a child!), egg donation is a lot more involved.

First, you will need to take medication to stop your menstrual cycle. Then, you'll need to give yourself daily injections to cause hyperstimulation of your reproductive system. The chance of pregnancy (including ectopic pregnancy or multiples) during this time is quite high and the only type of birth control you'll be able to use is condoms; it might be a good idea to abstain from sex. A few women develop overstimulated ovaries and require hospitalisation. This part of the process takes a few weeks.

The actual procedure to remove the eggs involves inserting a needle into the ovaries through the vagina for about 30 minutes. You may be under anaesthetic, so expect to give yourself some time to recover.

Usually this process will result in about 10 eggs.

I think considering whether EAs would be egg donors is an interesting question, but the time and medical considerations involved is very different.

https://www.hfea.gov.uk/donation/donors/donating-your-eggs/

Comment by khorton on evelynciara's Shortform · 2020-02-06T22:38:32.755Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Wait, do buses some place not start moving until... everyone's sitting down? Does that mean there's enough seats for everyone?

Comment by khorton on Request for Feedback: Draft of a COI policy for the Long Term Future Fund · 2020-02-06T08:32:22.392Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Instead of metamour, you could expand to say "the partner or immediate family of your romantic partner" (Metamour means partner of your partner, right?)

Comment by khorton on Request for Feedback: Draft of a COI policy for the Long Term Future Fund · 2020-02-06T08:29:48.237Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I'd write it as:

"Not necessary to disclose or recuse: A fund member is friends with a grantee, but does not share a living arrangement and is not in any way romantically involved"

Comment by khorton on Request for Feedback: Draft of a COI policy for the Long Term Future Fund · 2020-02-05T23:26:54.196Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I found this section confusing

"Not necessary to disclose or recuse: A fund member is friends with a grantee, but does not share a living arrangement or is in some way romantically involved"

Are you saying they don't have to disclose if they're romantically involved, or they do?

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-02T11:05:30.882Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I'm so sorry Sean, I took it as obvious that your motivation was developing accurate beliefs, hopefully to help you help others, rather than fun and profit. Didn't mean to imply otherwise!

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-02T10:23:29.769Z · score: 6 (5 votes) · EA · GW

I think what's confusing you is that people are selectively against betting based on its motivation.

In EA, people regularly talk about morbid topics, but the stated aim is to help people. In this case, the aim could be read as "having fun and making money". It was the motivation that was a problem, not the act itself, for most people.

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-01T09:15:59.194Z · score: 19 (13 votes) · EA · GW

I strongly disagree with this comment - I think that motivations matter and that betting with an appropriate respect for the people who have died is completely possible - but I am glad you stated your position explicitly. Comments like this make the Forum better.

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-31T11:57:22.781Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

While I agree that most people don't wash their hands correctly, I was recently surprised to learn that warm water doesn't make much of a difference when it comes to killing germs.

https://medicalsciences.stackexchange.com/questions/500/does-hot-water-kill-germs-better-than-cold-water

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-31T08:48:18.446Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

The CDC and WHO emphasise handwashing, not gloves. "WHO experts advise against wearing gloves on the basis that hand-washing is more important and people wearing gloves are less likely to wash their hands."

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/27/coronavirus-how-to-protect-yourself-from-infection

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-31T08:27:53.238Z · score: 2 (9 votes) · EA · GW

I agree that Chi's comment is very reasonable (and upvoted for that reason). Personally, I think editing for tone would be a reasonable compromise, but I am glad people are starting to think more about the EA Forum as a publicly searchable space.

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-30T09:57:23.139Z · score: 9 (10 votes) · EA · GW

It's now been more than two weeks since infected people have been diagnosed in countries like Thailand, but there's no outbreak in Thailand. There have so far been 14 cases in Thailand, all brought directly from China rather than from person-to-person infection in Thailand.

That makes me feel more skeptical that this will become a worldwide pandemic.

Comment by khorton on The EA Hotel is now the Centre for Enabling EA Learning & Research (CEEALAR) · 2020-01-30T00:27:50.881Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Sometimes you can "operate as" something different than your legal name. Could be an option here.

Comment by khorton on Tackling the Largest Cause of Death Worldwide: Good Policies Update on Tobacco Taxes · 2020-01-28T22:35:51.293Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for posting this update. I was a bit concerned about your chances of success at influencing policy in a country you've never visited, but it sounds like you've made progress and I'm pleased you're considering hiring local staff. Good luck going forward!

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-28T20:55:06.461Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · EA · GW

There has now been an incidence of person-to-person transmission outside China

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-28T08:49:27.519Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Update: "A WHO panel of 16 independent experts twice last week declined to declare an international emergency over the outbreak.

"While more cases have been emerging outside China in people who have travelled from there recently, the WHO said only one of the overseas cases involved human-to-human transmission."

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates?page=with:block-5e2ff1a58f0811db2faec898#block-5e2ff1a58f0811db2faec898

Comment by khorton on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-27T19:21:02.789Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

The source you're looking at considers everyone in the population, even people who don't get the flu, but the 3% figure for the Wuhan Coronavirus is only considering the people who have been infected.

EDIT: I was wrong, your source is giving the percentage of deaths caused by the flu, not the percentage of the whole population killed by flu each year.

The annual death toll in China is 8.9 million, so 87 deaths would mean 0.00001% are caused by the Wuhan Coronavirus, compared to 0.014% for the seasonal flu. (I don't think this is a great way to compare, because very few people have been exposed to the Coronavirus so far, but you get the gist.)