Posts

QRI and the Symmetry Theory of Valence 2020-12-19T18:34:10.021Z
[Link] "Where are all the successful rationalists?" 2020-10-17T19:59:58.175Z
[Link] How understanding valence could help make future AIs safer 2020-10-08T18:53:59.848Z
Shifts in subjective well-being scales? 2020-08-18T18:27:21.789Z
[Link] "Will He Go?" book review (Scott Aaronson) 2020-06-12T22:10:43.100Z
[Link] "Cutting through spiritual colonialism" 2020-05-20T03:15:03.058Z
[Link] "Average utilitarianism implies solipsistic egoism" (Tarsney 2020) 2020-04-29T20:54:12.353Z
[Link] "The Origin of Consciousness Reading Companion" (Putanumonit) 2020-04-07T18:56:11.676Z
[Link] "On hiding the source of knowledge" (Jessica Taylor) 2020-01-27T05:19:10.143Z
[Link] "Moral understanding and moral illusions" 2020-01-26T10:50:44.487Z
[Link] "Evaluating Arguments One Step at a Time" (Ought) 2020-01-11T19:12:31.018Z
[Link] Moloch Hasn’t Won (Zvi) 2019-12-28T23:21:00.487Z
[Link] EA Global 2020 announced (CEA) 2019-12-03T19:31:57.242Z
What is EA's story? 2019-11-30T21:45:45.433Z
[Link] "Status in academic ethics" (Charles Foster) 2019-11-27T23:20:04.510Z
[Link] "Art as the starting point" (Autotranslucence) 2019-11-27T17:10:25.705Z
[Link] A new charity evaluator (NYTimes) 2019-11-26T22:44:23.857Z
[Link] Against "Why We Sleep" (Guzey) 2019-11-15T21:15:08.098Z
[Link] "Progress Update October 2019" (Ought) 2019-10-29T21:34:42.504Z
[Link] "One year of Future Perfect" (Vox) 2019-10-15T18:12:55.663Z
[Link] "Machine Learning Projects for IDA" (Ought) 2019-10-12T17:35:18.638Z
[Link] "State of the Qualia" (QRI) 2019-10-11T21:14:23.412Z
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil) 2019-10-11T21:01:53.471Z
Should CEA buy ea.org? 2019-10-04T23:10:52.237Z
[Link] Experience Doesn’t Predict a New Hire’s Success (HBR) 2019-10-04T19:30:49.479Z
Why is the amount of child porn growing? 2019-10-02T01:09:45.207Z
[Link] Moral Interlude from "The Wizard and the Prophet" 2019-09-27T18:42:16.728Z
[Link] The Case for Charter Cities Within the EA Framework (CCI) 2019-09-23T20:08:19.947Z
[Link] "Relaxed Beliefs Under Psychedelics and the Anarchic Brain" (SSC) 2019-09-11T14:45:35.993Z
[Link] Progress Studies (Jasmine Wang) 2019-09-10T19:55:55.891Z
Campaign finance reform as an EA priority? 2019-08-30T01:46:55.222Z
[Link] BERI handing off Jaan Tallinn's grantmaking 2019-08-27T17:13:30.112Z
[Links] Tangible actions to support Hong Kong protestors from afar 2019-08-18T23:47:03.223Z
[Link] Virtue signaling annotated bibliography (Geoffrey Miller) 2019-08-14T22:41:55.592Z
[Link] Bolsonaro is cutting down the rainforest (nytimes) 2019-08-01T00:45:11.495Z
[Link] The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag" (LessWrong post) 2019-07-31T21:27:22.097Z
[Link] "Two Case Studies in Communist Insecurity" (The Scholar's Stage) 2019-07-25T22:17:05.968Z
[Link] Thiel on GCRs 2019-07-22T20:47:13.076Z
Debrief: "cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics" 2019-07-14T17:04:20.153Z
[Link] "Revisiting the Insights model" (Median Group) 2019-07-14T14:58:39.661Z
[Link] "Why Responsible AI Development Needs Cooperation on Safety" (OpenAI) 2019-07-12T01:19:39.816Z
[Link] "The AI Timelines Scam" 2019-07-11T03:37:22.568Z
If physics is many-worlds, does ethics matter? 2019-07-10T15:28:49.733Z
What grants has Carl Shulman's discretionary fund made? 2019-07-08T18:40:19.414Z
Do we know how many big asteroids could impact Earth? 2019-07-07T16:06:57.304Z
Leverage Research shutting down? 2019-07-04T20:55:34.890Z
What's the best structure for optimal allocation of EA capital? 2019-06-04T17:00:36.470Z
On the margin, should EA focus on outreach or retention? 2019-05-31T22:22:54.299Z
[Link] Act of Charity 2019-05-30T22:29:41.518Z
Why do you downvote EA Forum posts & comments? 2019-05-29T22:52:06.900Z

Comments

Comment by Milan_Griffes on AMA: Tim Ferriss, Michael Pollan, and Dr. Matthew W. Johnson on psychedelics research and philanthropy · 2021-05-17T19:46:15.820Z · EA · GW

Thanks for doing this!

For all three – how would you like to see EA participate in the psychedelic renaissance? What do you think a good marriage of the two communities would look like?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-04-06T02:21:39.414Z

I don't think we yet are collectively wise enough to engage in memetic and/or tech projects that undermine evolutionary equilibria, fwiw.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on Consciousness research as a cause? [asking for advice] · 2021-04-02T16:26:56.334Z · EA · GW

QRI = the Qualia Research Institute

https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org

Comment by Milan_Griffes on New Top EA Causes for 2021? · 2021-04-02T04:33:17.217Z · EA · GW

80k wubstepping all night long

Comment by Milan_Griffes on New Top EA Causes for 2021? · 2021-04-01T12:11:00.689Z · EA · GW

"All 3,400 hours of Rationality: From AI to Zombies

Speedcore EDM R:A2Z will be the background soundtrack at the Schelling Point Temple of EA Burning Man. 

24/7 baby.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on New Top EA Causes for 2021? · 2021-04-01T12:06:28.232Z · EA · GW

Big +1 

An 80k podcast dubstep house party actually sounds like a good time.... BURNING MAN OF THE NERDS!!!!

Robbie Wib-wib-wib-wibibiblin in da HAUS!!!!!!!!

Comment by Milan_Griffes on New Top EA Causes for 2021? · 2021-04-01T12:04:42.441Z · EA · GW

lol DiarrhEA Eradication

Comment by Milan_Griffes on New Top EA Causes for 2021? · 2021-04-01T12:03:12.663Z · EA · GW

+1 makes sense.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-04-01T09:17:28.547Z

Consider Puritanism. Pursed. The Purge...

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-04-01T09:13:31.846Z

https://twitter.com/MilanGriffes/status/1365758726657904641

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-22T03:09:30.420Z

Saying "80k tracks the # of calls and # of career plan changes, but doesn't track the long-run impacts of their advisees" is different from saying "80k focus[es] mainly on # of calls"

Comment by Milan_Griffes on AMA: Holden Karnofsky @ EA Global: Reconnect · 2021-03-20T00:25:50.293Z · EA · GW

I expanded a bit on this question here.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on Name for the larger EA+adjacent ecosystem? · 2021-03-19T23:18:50.674Z · EA · GW

Sexy.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-19T19:12:14.078Z

Thank you for this feedback. 

From my perspective, I'm writing both for my own sake and for others.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-19T18:04:21.476Z

Yes, I want people to think about this for themselves. (I don't think that's esoteric.)

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-19T17:38:53.001Z

What about my style stands out as esoteric?

(From my perspective, I'm trying to be as clear & straightforward as possible in the main body of each post. I am also using poetic quotes at the top of some of the posts.)

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-19T16:56:35.049Z

"Where do you get the impression that they focus mainly on # of calls?"

I don't have this impression. From the original post:

80,000 Hours tracking the number of advising calls they make and the number of career plan changes they catalyze, rather than the long-run impacts their advisees are having in the world.


It would be interesting to see a cohort analysis of 80k advisees by year, looking at what each advisee from each cohort has accomplished out in the world in the following years.

Maybe that already exists? I haven't seen it, if so.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-19T16:44:49.336Z

"Opening with a strong claim,  making your readers scroll through a lot of introductory text, and ending abruptly with "but I don't feel like justifying my point in any way, so come up with your own arguments" is not a very good look on this forum. "

I wasn't intending the text included in the post to be introductory...


"[I have read the entirety of The Inner Ring, but not the vast series of apparent prerequisite posts to this one. I would be very surprised if reading them caused me to disagree with the points in this comment, though.]"

If you don't want to read the existing work that undergirds this post, why should I expect further writing to change your mind about the topic?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-19T16:39:10.870Z

Where are all the comments, indeed...


"I advise you to withdraw this post, cut out half the narrative crap, add some evidence and a model, make a recommendation, then repost it."

I think this is basically fair, though from my perspective the narrative crap is doing important work.

I have limited capacity these days so I'm writing this argument as a serial, posting it as I can find the time. 

In the meanwhile, this sequence from a few years ago (a) makes a similar argument following the form you suggest.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-18T22:28:19.643Z

"... on the margin, it sounds like we have more cost-effective forms of outreach."

Could you say more about what you have in mind? 

(Asking because I personally don't see any compelling alternative to a substantial fraction of EA folks raising children, especially when I consider a > 20-year time horizon.)

Comment by Milan_Griffes on What grants has Carl Shulman's discretionary fund made? · 2021-03-17T23:57:53.148Z · EA · GW

Thanks for this update – these seem like worthwhile things to invest in!

Do you have a sense of how you will structure reporting on future grantmaking from this fund?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-17T13:59:50.652Z

There's actually a lot of underutilized real estate in the Bay Area, especially in East Bay, Marin, South Bay, and the Peninsula. 

Much of it is locked up in big old houses that haven't turned over in a long time though.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-17T00:21:47.723Z

Big +1

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-16T21:36:56.922Z

Big +1

Comment by Milan_Griffes on Why do EAs have children? · 2021-03-16T20:48:24.998Z · EA · GW

"Reproduction is a credible commitment to the future" is a potent meme.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on AMA: Holden Karnofsky @ EA Global: Reconnect · 2021-03-16T02:07:54.333Z · EA · GW

Does this post still basically reflect your feelings about public discourse?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T23:24:44.909Z

Those weren't corrections... 

The statements I make in the original post are largely about what an org is focusing on, not what it is formally tracking.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T16:13:43.047Z

I think there's a lot to admire about the Shakers... I'm just pointing out that as a social movement they are dying out, probably in part due to their views about sex & child-rearing.

Catholicism, Islam, and Mormonism seem to be much more durable in the long run (at least so far).

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T16:10:40.534Z

Thanks, should be fixed now

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T10:27:06.297Z

I bet cost often gets used as an excuse here.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T10:20:09.872Z

Hmmm... something about making the two commensurable feels weird to me... (not sure what it is about it yet).

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T10:05:46.128Z

There's an important difference in kind here – raising children is a qualitatively different form of "consumption" than other kinds of consumption.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T09:50:21.752Z

Could you give some examples of the basic facts I stated that appear incorrect?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on Opportunity for EA orgs: $5k/year in ETH (tech setup required) · 2021-03-15T04:32:39.646Z · EA · GW

Wow this is cool: https://blog.fuguefoundation.org/effective-altruism-quest/

Comment by Milan_Griffes on Why do EAs have children? · 2021-03-15T03:21:24.441Z · EA · GW

I'm planning to have children because I feel excited about the aesthetic of parenthood, it seems wonderful to be able to intimately participate in bringing more life into the world, and many people I respect endorse becoming a parent (1, 2, 3, but the list goes on and on...)

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T03:15:47.873Z

I'm basically trying to wonder about whether or not most people who affiliate with EA share your preference set about this.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T03:00:18.128Z

The revealed preference of most people who affiliate with EA could easily be that having kids doesn't clear their implicit moral bar. (This seems to be the case for you.)

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T02:58:49.514Z

Among other things, this assumes that we know how to transmit the ideology via child-rearing and that we know how to switch from one reproductive strategy to another en masse.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T02:57:07.789Z

Right. I wonder if affiliation with EA correlates with an implicit belief that procreation is wrong / not worthwhile / not clearing the bar of moral behavior...

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T02:54:55.152Z

Okay, but if affiliation with EA correlates with a reproductive rate that's far below replacement level, then if EA succeeds in converting everyone to EA, humanity will die out.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T01:36:09.887Z

I don't follow how that's relevant?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T01:34:02.146Z

K strategists still need to reproduce at the replacement rate or above to be viable.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T01:32:47.737Z

fwiw I'm using "Bay Area Rationality" to point to a particular subculture (that which grew out of Overcoming Bias and LessWrong and is now centered around but not entirely contained by the Bay Area), and to disambiguate from the broader notion of "Rationality," which I understand to encompass many social movements, subcultures, and time periods. 

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T01:30:25.444Z

Right, I think that position is approaching the ideology of the Shakers.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-15T00:01:47.123Z

If EA has the same plank as Shakerism, it probably doesn't have a bright future...

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-14T21:08:39.300Z

Why are people with higher income & education levels having fewer children?

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-14T21:07:57.669Z

I believe Mormons and Catholics are punching above their weight in the US.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-14T20:25:35.934Z

Yes – and children are the future.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on Some thoughts on EA outreach to high schoolers · 2021-03-14T17:51:21.391Z · EA · GW

I've found High Tea to be a helpful resource for staying in touch with Gen Z trends.

Comment by Milan_Griffes on [deleted post] 2021-03-14T15:04:51.980Z

I feel like I'm asking about something pretty simple. Here's a sketch:

  • FP recommends Charity Z
  • In the first year after recommending Charity Z, FP attributes $5m in donations to Charity Z because of their recommendation
  • The next time FP follows up with Charity Z, they ask "What did you guys use that $5m for?"
  • Charity Z tells them what they used the $5m for
  • FP thinks about this use of funds, forms an opinion about its effectiveness, and writes about this opinion in their next update of Charity Z

GiveWell basically does this for its top charities.