Posts

[Link] "Cutting through spiritual colonialism" 2020-05-20T03:15:03.058Z · score: 4 (7 votes)
[Link] "Average utilitarianism implies solipsistic egoism" (Tarsney 2020) 2020-04-29T20:54:12.353Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
[Link] "The Origin of Consciousness Reading Companion" (Putanumonit) 2020-04-07T18:56:11.676Z · score: 7 (1 votes)
[Link] "On hiding the source of knowledge" (Jessica Taylor) 2020-01-27T05:19:10.143Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
[Link] "Moral understanding and moral illusions" 2020-01-26T10:50:44.487Z · score: 19 (8 votes)
[Link] "Evaluating Arguments One Step at a Time" (Ought) 2020-01-11T19:12:31.018Z · score: 7 (1 votes)
[Link] Moloch Hasn’t Won (Zvi) 2019-12-28T23:21:00.487Z · score: 12 (10 votes)
[Link] EA Global 2020 announced (CEA) 2019-12-03T19:31:57.242Z · score: 17 (6 votes)
What is EA's story? 2019-11-30T21:45:45.433Z · score: 20 (8 votes)
[Link] "Status in academic ethics" (Charles Foster) 2019-11-27T23:20:04.510Z · score: 18 (9 votes)
[Link] "Art as the starting point" (Autotranslucence) 2019-11-27T17:10:25.705Z · score: 16 (5 votes)
[Link] A new charity evaluator (NYTimes) 2019-11-26T22:44:23.857Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
[Link] Against "Why We Sleep" (Guzey) 2019-11-15T21:15:08.098Z · score: 18 (13 votes)
[Link] "Progress Update October 2019" (Ought) 2019-10-29T21:34:42.504Z · score: 25 (11 votes)
[Link] "One year of Future Perfect" (Vox) 2019-10-15T18:12:55.663Z · score: 24 (13 votes)
[Link] "Machine Learning Projects for IDA" (Ought) 2019-10-12T17:35:18.638Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
[Link] "State of the Qualia" (QRI) 2019-10-11T21:14:23.412Z · score: 22 (11 votes)
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil) 2019-10-11T21:01:53.471Z · score: 28 (9 votes)
Should CEA buy ea.org? 2019-10-04T23:10:52.237Z · score: 5 (5 votes)
[Link] Experience Doesn’t Predict a New Hire’s Success (HBR) 2019-10-04T19:30:49.479Z · score: 9 (3 votes)
Why is the amount of child porn growing? 2019-10-02T01:09:45.207Z · score: 6 (14 votes)
[Link] Moral Interlude from "The Wizard and the Prophet" 2019-09-27T18:42:16.728Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
[Link] The Case for Charter Cities Within the EA Framework (CCI) 2019-09-23T20:08:19.947Z · score: 22 (11 votes)
[Link] "Relaxed Beliefs Under Psychedelics and the Anarchic Brain" (SSC) 2019-09-11T14:45:35.993Z · score: 3 (8 votes)
[Link] Progress Studies (Jasmine Wang) 2019-09-10T19:55:55.891Z · score: 19 (9 votes)
Campaign finance reform as an EA priority? 2019-08-30T01:46:55.222Z · score: 18 (12 votes)
[Link] BERI handing off Jaan Tallinn's grantmaking 2019-08-27T17:13:30.112Z · score: 18 (8 votes)
[Links] Tangible actions to support Hong Kong protestors from afar 2019-08-18T23:47:03.223Z · score: 4 (9 votes)
[Link] Virtue signaling annotated bibliography (Geoffrey Miller) 2019-08-14T22:41:55.592Z · score: 7 (5 votes)
[Link] Bolsonaro is cutting down the rainforest (nytimes) 2019-08-01T00:45:11.495Z · score: 2 (11 votes)
[Link] The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag" (LessWrong post) 2019-07-31T21:27:22.097Z · score: 20 (5 votes)
[Link] "Two Case Studies in Communist Insecurity" (The Scholar's Stage) 2019-07-25T22:17:05.968Z · score: 7 (7 votes)
[Link] Thiel on GCRs 2019-07-22T20:47:13.076Z · score: 26 (10 votes)
Debrief: "cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics" 2019-07-14T17:04:20.153Z · score: 47 (24 votes)
[Link] "Revisiting the Insights model" (Median Group) 2019-07-14T14:58:39.661Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
[Link] "Why Responsible AI Development Needs Cooperation on Safety" (OpenAI) 2019-07-12T01:19:39.816Z · score: 20 (9 votes)
[Link] "The AI Timelines Scam" 2019-07-11T03:37:22.568Z · score: 22 (13 votes)
If physics is many-worlds, does ethics matter? 2019-07-10T15:28:49.733Z · score: 14 (9 votes)
What grants has Carl Shulman's discretionary fund made? 2019-07-08T18:40:19.414Z · score: 52 (24 votes)
Do we know how many big asteroids could impact Earth? 2019-07-07T16:06:57.304Z · score: 31 (13 votes)
Leverage Research shutting down? 2019-07-04T20:55:34.890Z · score: 22 (13 votes)
What's the best structure for optimal allocation of EA capital? 2019-06-04T17:00:36.470Z · score: 7 (12 votes)
On the margin, should EA focus on outreach or retention? 2019-05-31T22:22:54.299Z · score: 5 (6 votes)
[Link] Act of Charity 2019-05-30T22:29:41.518Z · score: 4 (4 votes)
Why do you downvote EA Forum posts & comments? 2019-05-29T22:52:06.900Z · score: 6 (6 votes)
[Link] MacKenzie Bezos signs the Giving Pledge 2019-05-28T17:55:30.483Z · score: 13 (8 votes)
[Link] David Pearce on understanding psychedelics 2019-05-19T17:32:49.242Z · score: 6 (11 votes)
Cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics being an EA cause area 2019-05-10T18:13:04.968Z · score: 47 (32 votes)
[Link] "Radical Consequence and Heretical Knots" – an ethnography of the London EA community 2019-05-09T17:31:52.354Z · score: 16 (9 votes)
[Link] 5-HTTLPR 2019-05-09T14:56:50.820Z · score: 16 (4 votes)

Comments

Comment by milan_griffes on EA Survey: Sexual Harassment Questions - Feedback Requested · 2020-05-27T22:19:41.728Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Posting these links here for cross-reference:

Comment by milan_griffes on An Exploration of Sexual Violence Reduction for Effective Altruism Potential · 2020-05-27T22:17:06.441Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Posting these links here for cross-reference:

Comment by milan_griffes on Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors · 2020-05-21T16:22:20.048Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW
Overall, my sense is that MDMA and psychedelics might have a chance to substantially decrease malevolent traits if these substances are taken with the right intentions and in a good setting—ideally in a therapeutic setting with an experienced guide. The biggest problem I see is that most malevolent people likely won’t be interested in taking MDMA and psychedelics in this way.

Our estimates of the likelihood of malevolent people being interested probably hinge on our theory of where malevolence comes from.

e.g. if we think malevolence mostly arises as a maladaptive coping response to early trauma, you could imagine interventions that resolve the trauma and replace the maladaptive response with a more prosocial & equally fit response (and malevolent people being interested in those interventions).

But if we think malevolence is mostly a genetically-mediated trait, it's probably harder to change.

I haven't poked the literature on this yet.

Comment by milan_griffes on [Link] "Cutting through spiritual colonialism" · 2020-05-20T17:13:58.656Z · score: 12 (6 votes) · EA · GW

I wrote up a steelman summary of Gupta's position on another thread after someone pointed out that capitalism is just a coordination mechanism (and one that is overall better than the other coordination mechanisms we've tried).

Here's the summary:

  • Western society used to be pretty bad at coordinating, but had a basic meaning-making orientation (Christianity) and functional methods of laundering personal responsibility (e.g. Catholic confession, e.g. Protestant predestination). 
  • With industrialization, and then again with the computing revolution, western society got a lot better at coordinating.
  • Alongside industrialization & modernization, western society began to lose its meaning-making orientation and its methods of laundering responsibility began to lose efficacy.
  • So now we're in a place where we're much better at coordinating than we were before, but we don't have wholesome targets to coordinate towards, and we're for the most part operating as though our legacy structures of managing personal responsibility are still intact. 
    • This is bad.
  • Lately some of our coordinating power has turned towards "colonizing" spiritual practices of other cultures, i.e. it's trying to adopt a version of them that could replace our legacy personal-responsibility-management structures. 
    • This isn't going very well, because the spiritual structures we're interested in are a fundamentally different shape than the ones we're trying to replace, and we're more interested in shoehorning the new (from our perspective) structures into the legacy forms rather than adapting our expectations to the new structures (adapting our expectations would be much harder).

This all rhymes with Vervaeke's stuff (though I haven't gone deep down the Vervaeke-hole yet).
Also rhymes with The Wizard and the Prophet (Gupta is a hardcore prophet, in that framing).

Comment by milan_griffes on What should Founders Pledge research? · 2020-05-11T19:26:47.816Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thank you for doing this! I was excited to see your piece, and have been thinking about it.

Comment by milan_griffes on Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors · 2020-05-07T19:21:24.856Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW
Regarding objective measures, there will be 'Minority Report' style objections to actually using them in advance, even if they have high predictive power (which might be tricky as it relies on collecting good data, which seems to require the consent of the malevolent).

You could imagine scenarios where we apply objective measures to children, embryos, and/or couples who are considering having children.

This would avoid some of the free-choice problem around who takes the test, though it doesn't really get around the Minority Report problem. Also there'd still be selection at the parent level (some would-be parents would decide to not get tested).

Interesting that we don't do anything like this for psychopathy currently, as far as I know. (Psychopathy appears to be somewhat genetic.)

Comment by milan_griffes on Racial Demographics at Longtermist Organizations · 2020-05-03T14:33:34.877Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Whether we assume conflict theory or mistake theory is also relevant here.

Comment by milan_griffes on How Much Leverage Should Altruists Use? · 2020-05-02T20:31:30.060Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

The Institutional Investor hyperlink is broken. Here's one that works: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1j0mvcy9792vt/Why-Value-Investing-Sucks

Comment by milan_griffes on Racial Demographics at Longtermist Organizations · 2020-05-02T17:12:15.952Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

I would also hope for this!

It feels fraught though – Chinese leadership seems to have a very different view of what constitutes the good, and a very different vision for the future.

Comment by milan_griffes on Racial Demographics at Longtermist Organizations · 2020-05-01T17:15:14.206Z · score: 2 (12 votes) · EA · GW

Considering the reverse sharpens the point further:

"If a Chinese think tank, funded by a founder of Tencent (or Huawei, etc.), convened a consortium of AI practitioners & policy wonks (almost all of whom were racially & nationally Chinese), and this consortium produced recommendations on how to distribute the benefits of AI for the common good, what would the EA community think of that work?"

Comment by milan_griffes on Racial Demographics at Longtermist Organizations · 2020-05-01T16:40:36.907Z · score: 16 (21 votes) · EA · GW
If you were an AI strategist in China, and knew that Asians outnumbered whites in many top CS programs in the US, would you be skeptical about an overwhelmingly white ecosystem producing research on topics like “distributing the benefits of AI for the common good”?

This is a great point.

Comment by milan_griffes on Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors · 2020-04-30T16:27:52.054Z · score: 8 (6 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for this great comment!

I had forgotten about Pokorny et al. 2017 – that's definitely relevant work.


The kind of individuals that seem most dangerous (people with highly elevated Dark Tetrad traits who are also ambitious, productive and strategic) seem less likely to be interested in taking psychedelics—such folks don't seem interested in increasing their empathy, becoming less judgmental or having spiritual experiences.

A lot of Nazis were interested in the occult, and Mao wrote poetry.


I’m somewhat pessimistic that giving psychedelics to highly malevolent individuals would make them substantially more compassionate. That being said, I'm certainly not confident in that assessment.

More research needed here.

As far as I know, there hasn't been any work done on how psychedelics affect individuals with high Dark Tetrad scores.


... the Concord Prison Experiment. However, due to various methodological flaws, I'd be hesitant to draw strong conclusions from this experiment.

Yeah, the Concord Prison Experiment is pretty bad. Hendricks et al. 2014 is better work on this, though it's just a survey.


my main worry is that psychedelics sometimes seem to decrease people’s epistemic and instrumental rationality.

Do you know where this worry comes from?

Gabay et al. 2019 found that MDMA boosted people's cooperation with trustworthy players in an iterated prisoner's dilemma, but not with untrustworthy players. I take that as some evidence that MDMA doesn't acutely harm one's rationality. I don't think there's been similar work done for other psychedelics.


I also observed that they sometimes seem to have shifted people’s interests towards more esoteric matters and led to “spiritual navel-gazing”—of course, this can be beneficial for people whose life goals are comparatively uninformed.

I think spiritual bypassing is a real problem, and unwise psychedelic use can definitely facilitate it. Context & integration seems very important.

Comment by milan_griffes on How good is The Humane League compared to the Against Malaria Foundation? · 2020-04-30T00:26:38.958Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Some more discussion of welfare metrics here: Why does EA use QALYs instead of experience sampling?

Comment by milan_griffes on Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors · 2020-04-29T19:58:00.120Z · score: 8 (11 votes) · EA · GW
In this section, we explore how possible future technologies could be used to reduce the influence of malevolent actors.

Psychedelics probably help with this as well (when carefully administered).

Anecdotally, a lot of Western contemplative teachers got started on that path because of psychedelic experiences (Zen, Tibetan Vajrayana, Vipassana, Advaita Vedanta, Kashmiri Shaivism). These traditions are extremely prosocial & anti-malevolent.

Less anecdotally, Hendricks et al. 2018 found lifetime psychedelic use correlated with reduced criminality (survey with n = 480,000). Lyons & Carhart-Harris 2018 found psilocybin decreased authoritarian political beliefs (small, open-label, prospective study).

There hasn't been a proper RCT yet though.

Comment by milan_griffes on Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors · 2020-04-29T19:29:40.648Z · score: 5 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Somewhat related – US college students have been growing more narcissistic (or maybe just gaining higher self-esteem) since the 1980s: https://flightfromperfection.com/college-students-more-narcissistic.html

Comment by milan_griffes on Why do EA events attract more men than women? Focus group data · 2020-04-29T02:40:07.593Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

See also this recent post from 80,000 Hours: https://80000hours.org/2020/04/anonymous-answers-diversity/

Comment by milan_griffes on Is preventing child abuse a plausible Cause X? · 2020-04-23T16:07:36.823Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Today on Marginal Revolution: Why the low status of opposition to child abuse? (a)

Comment by milan_griffes on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-04-10T16:52:02.805Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Can you apply to both the EIDL and PPP programs?

From this article:

Many small business owners do not know they can apply for both an EIDL loan and a PPP loan for the same COVID-19 disaster. There are rules, including the key requirement that you can't use money from both loans for the same thing. For example, if you use the proceeds from a PPP loan for payroll, you can't use an EIDL loan for payroll also.
Before you apply for a PPP loan, you may want to look more closely at the EIDL program to see if it might be a better fit or to decide if applying for both loans makes sense in your case. The table below provides a basic comparison of the two programs.
...
Comment by milan_griffes on (How) Could an AI become an independent economic agent? · 2020-04-04T22:44:44.191Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Fascinating:

The majority of IKEA outlets are controlled by the holding company INGKA Holding, which is owned by the Stichting INGKA Foundation. The Stichting INGKA Foundation is one of the largest charitable foundations in the world and is registered in the Netherlands.
This complicated structuring helps IKEA minimize its taxes, makes a hostile takeover impossible, and permits the company to operate as a nonprofit corporation.
Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-04T00:14:11.343Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Silicon Valley Bank did a good conference call on COVID-19 relief this week.

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-03T19:13:50.487Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Some interesting context on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-03/small-business-bailout-makes-banks-nervous

Comment by milan_griffes on A cause can be too neglected · 2020-04-03T19:02:09.551Z · score: 1 (6 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for this! Well-written and an important point.

This dynamic is probably at play for psychedelics: Whether or not psychedelics are an EA cause area

Comment by milan_griffes on What posts do you want someone to write? · 2020-04-03T18:58:34.363Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I hadn't, thanks!

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-03T16:25:13.264Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Yeah, I'd be pretty surprised if any reputable foundations were taking ownership stake when they make grants. (Because that'd be an investment, not a donation.)

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-02T22:10:03.619Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Ought's accountants (who've taken a close look at the CARES Act) confirmed that the "affiliation test" is determined by ownership, so it shouldn't be an issue for nonprofits so long as the org isn't owned by its donors.

Comment by milan_griffes on Covid-19 Response Fund · 2020-04-02T20:14:04.800Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Could also be cool to administer a coronavirus prize independent from Emergent Ventures, trying to get more expected impact than Tyler.

Comment by milan_griffes on Covid-19 Response Fund · 2020-04-02T19:30:35.313Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Increase Emergent Ventures' pool for coronavirus prizes? https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/1-million-plus-in-emergent-ventures-prizes-for-coronavirus-work.html

Probably high-leverage.

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-02T18:03:57.944Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Looks like the big banks have been pushing back about administering these loans: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-stimulus-banks-exc-idUSKBN21K075

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/banks-small-business-lending-program-launch-161106

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-02T02:10:20.694Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

This discussion of which VC-backed startups are ineligible makes me think most nonprofits will be eligible: https://intro.indie.vc/vcbacked-companies

Not definitive though.

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-02T02:08:33.346Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

This guide is also good: https://intro.indie.vc/sba

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-01T23:59:18.809Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW
As long as the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) employees at the end of this eight week period matches the number of FTE you had before (either calculated an average monthly FTEs during Feb-Jun 2019 or average monthly FTEs in Jan + Feb 2020), your loan will be forgiven. It can also be partially forgiven in proportion to your reduction in FTEs.

This phrasing is ambiguous as to what would happen to loan forgiveness if a firm increased the number of full-time employees during the loan period.

A friend's firm asked me about this so I poked into it a bit. Having done that, I'm ~80% sure that increasing headcount during the loan period wouldn't affect loan forgiveness.

From the statute text:

In General.—The amount of loan forgiveness under this section shall be reduced, but not increased, by multiplying the amount described in subsection (b) by the quotient obtained by dividing—
the average number of full-time equivalent employees per month employed by
the eligible recipient during the covered period; by
at the election of the borrower—
the average number of full-time equivalent employees per month employed by
the eligible recipient during the period beginning on February 15, 2019 and ending
on June 30, 2019; or
the average number of full-time equivalent employees per month employed by
the eligible recipient during the period beginning on January 1, 2020 and ending on
February 29, 2020; 

(Formatting isn't perfect because legal formatting doesn't play nice with EA Forum formatting.)

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-01T18:54:04.703Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

WaPo's FAQ about the program seems pretty good.

Q: Can the loan eventually be forgiven?
Yes. The program includes loan forgiveness covering costs for the first eight weeks of the loan for companies able to keep employees on payroll or continue paying bills throughout the coronavirus crisis.
The amount of loan forgiveness will include payroll costs for individuals below $100,000 in annual income, mortgage and rent obligations, including interest and utility payments. If an employee is above a $100,000 annual salary, the first $100,000 will be factored into the company’s loan forgiveness total but any amount above that will not. As of Wednesday morning the SBA had not decided whether benefits will factor into that cap.
The total amount of forgiveness will be reduced if your workforce is drawn down through attrition or if wages are reduced. If you are forced to lay off employees because of economic conditions, you may be able to preserve some of your loan guarantee by hiring them back.
Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-01T18:28:57.012Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Fred Wilson points out the language of the act may prevent VC-backed startups from accessing the funds, because they are "affiliated" with organizations such that the total size of the affiliation is >500 employees: https://avc.com/2020/03/startups-and-sba-loans/

(This is because taking VC investment "affiliates" the startup with every other org the VC has funded.)

Has anyone looked into whether there might be an analogous concern for nonprofits who receive donations from foundations that have a lot of grantees, e.g. Open Phil?

Comment by milan_griffes on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-01T18:25:25.693Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Full text of the loan-forgiveness part of the statute: https://writing.kemitchell.com/2020/03/31/CARES-Loan-Forgiveness.html

Comment by milan_griffes on Effective Altruism and Free Riding · 2020-03-31T21:37:42.970Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Right – when we're looking for ways to improve coordination, we should consider interventions at both the systemic level and the individual level.

It seems obvious that there's a close relationship between the two levels. If the causal relationships between levels are murky, that implies casting a wide net when surveying potential interventions. (If we can't see the causal relationships clearly at the start, we can't confidently rule out interventions on either level.)

Comment by milan_griffes on Effective Altruism and Free Riding · 2020-03-31T14:13:42.599Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Institutional decision-making is the aggregate of individual decision-making, right?

Comment by milan_griffes on Effective Altruism and Free Riding · 2020-03-31T01:09:45.186Z · score: 2 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Thank you for creating this! It's important and extremely well-written.

Feels apropos to drop a pointer to Gabay et al. 2019 – "MDMA Increases Cooperation and Recruitment of Social Brain Areas When Playing Trustworthy Players in an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma"

Comment by milan_griffes on What posts do you want someone to write? · 2020-03-28T18:01:31.579Z · score: 6 (6 votes) · EA · GW

"American UBI: for and against"

"A brief history of Rosicrucianism & the Invisible College"

"Were almost all the signers of the Declaration of Independence high-degree Freemasons?"

"Have malaria case rates gone down in areas where AMF did big bednet distributions?"

"What is the relationship between economic development and mental health? Is there a margin at which further development decreases mental health?"

"Literature review: Dunbar's number"

"Why is Rwanda outperforming other African nations?"

"The longtermist case for animal welfare"

"Philosopher-Kings: why wise governance is important for the longterm future"

"Case studies: when has democracy outperform technocracy? (and vice versa)"

"Examining the tradeoff between coordination and coercion"

"Spiritual practice as an EA cause area"

"Tools for thought as an EA cause area"

"Is strong, ubiquitous encryption a net positive?"

"How important are coral reefs to ocean health? How can they be protected?"

"What role does the Amazon rainforest play in regulating the North American biosphere?"

"What can the US do to protect the Amazon from Bolsonaro?"

"Can the Singaporean governance model scale?"

"Is EA complacent?"

"Flow-through effects of widespread addiction"

Comment by milan_griffes on Wei_Dai's Shortform · 2020-03-14T19:37:39.863Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

+1

Such a good point. "Courage of our convictions" and all that...

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T23:03:12.213Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Good point, thanks. I've edited my comment to correct the double-counting.

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T05:27:41.481Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Even if we assume that only 25% of Mental Health supporters were thinking of psychedelics, that's still 15% of survey respondents saying that psychedelics should receive "at least significant" EA resources.

0.585 * .25 = 0.15 [edited to correct double-counting]

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T05:15:30.940Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Fair enough.

It seems clear to me because most mental health professionals I've encountered in the last ~2 years agree that psychedelics are the most innovative thing coming into mainstream Western mental health since SSRIs came online in the 1990s.

There's an obvious sampling bias here, but I've seen this from many people who are personally skeptical or uncertain about psychedelics and still agree that the early trials are extremely promising, not just from enthusiasts.

You can also see it in the media coverage – there's a lot of positive press about the psychedelic renaissance and some voices of caution too, but basically no negative press. (And the voices of caution are mostly saying "this is a very powerful thing that needs to be managed carefully.")

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-10T23:22:41.551Z · score: -2 (6 votes) · EA · GW

Happy to make a bet here – let's figure out an operationalization that would satisfy all parties!

fwiw 21.5% of 2019 EA survey respondents thought Mental Health should be "top or near top priority" and 58.5% though it should receive "at least significant resources".

I'm sure we can quibble about how the "Mental Health" should map to the "Psychedelics" category, though it seems clear that psychedelics are one of the most promising developments in mental health in the last few decades (breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and all that).

If we assume half of the above considered psychedelics to be in the mental health bucket, then 10.75% of 2019 respondents thought psychedelics should be "top or near top priority" and 29.25% thought that psychedelics should receive "at least significant" EA resources. (And so I'd win the bet under that operationalization, though I suppose we'd also have to quibble over how "receive at least significant resources" maps to "plausible top EA cause area"...)

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T18:12:00.465Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

fwiw my read on that is ~15-35%, but we run in different circles

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T18:10:29.223Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I think it's closely related to key theoretical debates, e.g. Romeo's answer and Khorton's answer on this thread.

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T05:01:41.974Z · score: 4 (17 votes) · EA · GW

Whether or not psychedelics are an EA cause area.

Psychedelics posts on the Forum in 2019:

Comment by milan_griffes on COVID-19 brief for friends and family · 2020-03-05T02:06:46.942Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

EA Global SF 2020 won't be held this month: https://www.eaglobal.org/coronavirus (a)


Based on our best understanding of the risks from COVID-19, and after seeking the advice of experts in public health, we have sadly decided not to hold EA Global: San Francisco this month. We will update you as soon as possible about whether the event will be postponed to later in the year, or whether it will be canceled.
Comment by milan_griffes on Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? · 2020-03-05T02:04:33.288Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Yes: https://www.eaglobal.org/coronavirus (a)

Comment by milan_griffes on Apology · 2020-02-03T16:13:23.068Z · score: 17 (5 votes) · EA · GW
He has himself agreed to step back from the EA community more generally, and to step back from public life in general, which would be an odd move if these were minor misdemeanours.

fwiw he didn't step back for very long, at least on Twitter.

His next tweet was 10 days after this was posted, and as far as I can tell he never mentioned this episode on his feed. (He has ~30,900 followers on Twitter.)

Comment by milan_griffes on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-03T15:47:09.057Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Some good background here: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a (a)