Posts

[Link] "On hiding the source of knowledge" (Jessica Taylor) 2020-01-27T05:19:10.143Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
[Link] "Moral understanding and moral illusions" 2020-01-26T10:50:44.487Z · score: 19 (8 votes)
[Link] "Evaluating Arguments One Step at a Time" (Ought) 2020-01-11T19:12:31.018Z · score: 7 (1 votes)
[Link] Moloch Hasn’t Won (Zvi) 2019-12-28T23:21:00.487Z · score: 12 (10 votes)
[Link] EA Global 2020 announced (CEA) 2019-12-03T19:31:57.242Z · score: 17 (6 votes)
What is EA's story? 2019-11-30T21:45:45.433Z · score: 20 (8 votes)
[Link] "Status in academic ethics" (Charles Foster) 2019-11-27T23:20:04.510Z · score: 18 (9 votes)
[Link] "Art as the starting point" (Autotranslucence) 2019-11-27T17:10:25.705Z · score: 16 (5 votes)
[Link] A new charity evaluator (NYTimes) 2019-11-26T22:44:23.857Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
[Link] Against "Why We Sleep" (Guzey) 2019-11-15T21:15:08.098Z · score: 18 (13 votes)
[Link] "Progress Update October 2019" (Ought) 2019-10-29T21:34:42.504Z · score: 25 (11 votes)
[Link] "One year of Future Perfect" (Vox) 2019-10-15T18:12:55.663Z · score: 24 (13 votes)
[Link] "Machine Learning Projects for IDA" (Ought) 2019-10-12T17:35:18.638Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
[Link] "State of the Qualia" (QRI) 2019-10-11T21:14:23.412Z · score: 22 (11 votes)
[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil) 2019-10-11T21:01:53.471Z · score: 28 (9 votes)
Should CEA buy ea.org? 2019-10-04T23:10:52.237Z · score: 5 (5 votes)
[Link] Experience Doesn’t Predict a New Hire’s Success (HBR) 2019-10-04T19:30:49.479Z · score: 9 (3 votes)
Why is the amount of child porn growing? 2019-10-02T01:09:45.207Z · score: 6 (14 votes)
[Link] Moral Interlude from "The Wizard and the Prophet" 2019-09-27T18:42:16.728Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
[Link] The Case for Charter Cities Within the EA Framework (CCI) 2019-09-23T20:08:19.947Z · score: 22 (11 votes)
[Link] "Relaxed Beliefs Under Psychedelics and the Anarchic Brain" (SSC) 2019-09-11T14:45:35.993Z · score: 3 (8 votes)
[Link] Progress Studies (Jasmine Wang) 2019-09-10T19:55:55.891Z · score: 19 (9 votes)
Campaign finance reform as an EA priority? 2019-08-30T01:46:55.222Z · score: 17 (11 votes)
[Link] BERI handing off Jaan Tallinn's grantmaking 2019-08-27T17:13:30.112Z · score: 18 (8 votes)
[Links] Tangible actions to support Hong Kong protestors from afar 2019-08-18T23:47:03.223Z · score: 4 (9 votes)
[Link] Virtue signaling annotated bibliography (Geoffrey Miller) 2019-08-14T22:41:55.592Z · score: 7 (5 votes)
[Link] Bolsonaro is cutting down the rainforest (nytimes) 2019-08-01T00:45:11.495Z · score: 2 (11 votes)
[Link] The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag" (LessWrong post) 2019-07-31T21:27:22.097Z · score: 20 (5 votes)
[Link] "Two Case Studies in Communist Insecurity" (The Scholar's Stage) 2019-07-25T22:17:05.968Z · score: 7 (7 votes)
[Link] Thiel on GCRs 2019-07-22T20:47:13.076Z · score: 26 (10 votes)
Debrief: "cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics" 2019-07-14T17:04:20.153Z · score: 47 (24 votes)
[Link] "Revisiting the Insights model" (Median Group) 2019-07-14T14:58:39.661Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
[Link] "Why Responsible AI Development Needs Cooperation on Safety" (OpenAI) 2019-07-12T01:19:39.816Z · score: 20 (9 votes)
[Link] "The AI Timelines Scam" 2019-07-11T03:37:22.568Z · score: 22 (13 votes)
If physics is many-worlds, does ethics matter? 2019-07-10T15:28:49.733Z · score: 14 (9 votes)
What grants has Carl Shulman's discretionary fund made? 2019-07-08T18:40:19.414Z · score: 52 (24 votes)
Do we know how many big asteroids could impact Earth? 2019-07-07T16:06:57.304Z · score: 31 (13 votes)
Leverage Research shutting down? 2019-07-04T20:55:34.890Z · score: 22 (13 votes)
What's the best structure for optimal allocation of EA capital? 2019-06-04T17:00:36.470Z · score: 7 (12 votes)
On the margin, should EA focus on outreach or retention? 2019-05-31T22:22:54.299Z · score: 5 (6 votes)
[Link] Act of Charity 2019-05-30T22:29:41.518Z · score: 4 (4 votes)
Why do you downvote EA Forum posts & comments? 2019-05-29T22:52:06.900Z · score: 6 (6 votes)
[Link] MacKenzie Bezos signs the Giving Pledge 2019-05-28T17:55:30.483Z · score: 13 (8 votes)
[Link] David Pearce on understanding psychedelics 2019-05-19T17:32:49.242Z · score: 6 (11 votes)
Cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics being an EA cause area 2019-05-10T18:13:04.968Z · score: 47 (32 votes)
[Link] "Radical Consequence and Heretical Knots" – an ethnography of the London EA community 2019-05-09T17:31:52.354Z · score: 16 (9 votes)
[Link] 5-HTTLPR 2019-05-09T14:56:50.820Z · score: 16 (4 votes)
[Link] 80,000 Hours 2018 annual review 2019-05-08T17:06:06.726Z · score: 23 (9 votes)
[Link] "A Psychedelic Renaissance" (Chronicle of Philanthropy) 2019-05-06T17:57:41.913Z · score: 24 (6 votes)
Why isn't GV psychedelics grantmaking housed under Open Phil? 2019-05-05T17:10:45.959Z · score: 17 (11 votes)

Comments

Comment by milan_griffes on What posts do you want someone to write? · 2020-03-28T18:01:31.579Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

"American UBI: for and against"

"A brief history of Rosicrucianism & the Invisible College"

"Were almost all the signers of the Declaration of Independence high-degree Freemasons?"

"Have malaria case rates gone down in areas where AMF did big bednet distributions?"

"What is the relationship between economic development and mental health? Is there a margin at which further development decreases mental health?"

"Literature review: Dunbar's number"

"Why is Rwanda outperforming other African nations?"

"The longtermist case for animal welfare"

"Philosopher-Kings: why wise governance is important for the longterm future"

"Case studies: when has democracy outperform technocracy? (and vice versa)"

"Examining the tradeoff between coordination and coercion"

"Spiritual practice as an EA cause area"

"Tools for thought as an EA cause area"

"Is strong, ubiquitous encryption a net positive?"

"How important are coral reefs to ocean health? How can they be protected?"

"What role does the Amazon rainforest play in regulating the North American biosphere?"

"What can the US do to protect the Amazon from Bolsonaro?"

"Can the Singaporean governance model scale?"

"Is EA complacent?"

"Flow-through effects of widespread addiction"

Comment by milan_griffes on Wei_Dai's Shortform · 2020-03-14T19:37:39.863Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

+1

Such a good point. "Courage of our convictions" and all that...

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T23:03:12.213Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Good point, thanks. I've edited my comment to correct the double-counting.

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T05:27:41.481Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Even if we assume that only 25% of Mental Health supporters were thinking of psychedelics, that's still 15% of survey respondents saying that psychedelics should receive "at least significant" EA resources.

0.585 * .25 = 0.15 [edited to correct double-counting]

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-12T05:15:30.940Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Fair enough.

It seems clear to me because most mental health professionals I've encountered in the last ~2 years agree that psychedelics are the most innovative thing coming into mainstream Western mental health since SSRIs came online in the 1990s.

There's an obvious sampling bias here, but I've seen this from many people who are personally skeptical or uncertain about psychedelics and still agree that the early trials are extremely promising, not just from enthusiasts.

You can also see it in the media coverage – there's a lot of positive press about the psychedelic renaissance and some voices of caution too, but basically no negative press. (And the voices of caution are mostly saying "this is a very powerful thing that needs to be managed carefully.")

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-10T23:22:41.551Z · score: 0 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Happy to make a bet here – let's figure out an operationalization that would satisfy all parties!

fwiw 21.5% of 2019 EA survey respondents thought Mental Health should be "top or near top priority" and 58.5% though it should receive "at least significant resources".

I'm sure we can quibble about how the "Mental Health" should map to the "Psychedelics" category, though it seems clear that psychedelics are one of the most promising developments in mental health in the last few decades (breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and all that).

If we assume half of the above considered psychedelics to be in the mental health bucket, then 10.75% of 2019 respondents thought psychedelics should be "top or near top priority" and 29.25% thought that psychedelics should receive "at least significant" EA resources. (And so I'd win the bet under that operationalization, though I suppose we'd also have to quibble over how "receive at least significant resources" maps to "plausible top EA cause area"...)

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T18:12:00.465Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

fwiw my read on that is ~15-35%, but we run in different circles

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T18:10:29.223Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I think it's closely related to key theoretical debates, e.g. Romeo's answer and Khorton's answer on this thread.

Comment by milan_griffes on What are the key ongoing debates in EA? · 2020-03-09T05:01:41.974Z · score: 5 (13 votes) · EA · GW

Whether or not psychedelics are an EA cause area.

Psychedelics posts on the Forum in 2019:

Comment by milan_griffes on COVID-19 brief for friends and family · 2020-03-05T02:06:46.942Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

EA Global SF 2020 won't be held this month: https://www.eaglobal.org/coronavirus (a)


Based on our best understanding of the risks from COVID-19, and after seeking the advice of experts in public health, we have sadly decided not to hold EA Global: San Francisco this month. We will update you as soon as possible about whether the event will be postponed to later in the year, or whether it will be canceled.
Comment by milan_griffes on Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? · 2020-03-05T02:04:33.288Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Yes: https://www.eaglobal.org/coronavirus (a)

Comment by milan_griffes on Apology · 2020-02-03T16:13:23.068Z · score: 17 (5 votes) · EA · GW
He has himself agreed to step back from the EA community more generally, and to step back from public life in general, which would be an odd move if these were minor misdemeanours.

fwiw he didn't step back for very long, at least on Twitter.

His next tweet was 10 days after this was posted, and as far as I can tell he never mentioned this episode on his feed. (He has ~30,900 followers on Twitter.)

Comment by milan_griffes on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-03T15:47:09.057Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Some good background here: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a (a)

Comment by milan_griffes on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-03T07:48:10.706Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Cleared up here on the EA Hangouts fb group.

Comment by milan_griffes on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-02T11:45:25.172Z · score: 1 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Would love for someone to poke this & assess its epistemics: Coronavirus Contains "HIV Insertions", Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon (a)

I'm more curious about the trustworthiness of the scary graphs than about the claims that it may have been bioengineered.

Comment by milan_griffes on Seeking Advice: Arab EA · 2020-01-30T12:27:15.387Z · score: 1 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Definitely apply to Tyler Cowen's Emergent Ventures: https://www.mercatus.org/emergentventures

Your situation has the makings of a highly competitive application, and he'd be an excellent funder/patron.

(If you apply, make sure your "grant application in a tweet" answer is strong, as that's the most important part of the application. Also I'm happy to take a look at a draft of your application if that'd be helpful; you can reach me at the email given here.)

Comment by milan_griffes on Seeking Advice: Arab EA · 2020-01-30T12:18:54.717Z · score: 9 (7 votes) · EA · GW

FYI it looks like the Saudi government probably monitors Facebook & Twitter:


Social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook are widely used in Saudi Arabia, with nearly 30 percent of Arab region Twitter users from Saudi. Twitter has become an important platform for expressing dissent.
However, liberal citizens, and more recently conservatives, have been arrested and sometimes given punishments, such as prison time and fines, for criticizing the government on social media.
The government has been reported to have a hand in utilizing bots and human "trolls" in order to minimize the work of its critics on Twitter. Saudi was also accused of infiltrating Twitter through a Saudi employee that joined the company in 2013 but was put on leave two years later after the potential plot was brought to the attention of Twitter.
Comment by milan_griffes on Seeking Advice: Arab EA · 2020-01-30T10:07:57.027Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Becoming successful + established in Saudi Arabia whilst remaining EA-aligned could be v impactful. https://80000hours.org/career-guide/career-capital

Comment by milan_griffes on [Link] "Moral understanding and moral illusions" · 2020-01-27T03:25:10.072Z · score: -1 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Agreed!

Comment by milan_griffes on Doing good is as good as it ever was · 2020-01-26T18:45:51.197Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Got it.

Perhaps a few bullet points in a comment if there's no space for a top-level post (better written quickly than not at all...)


Comment by milan_griffes on Doing good is as good as it ever was · 2020-01-26T11:14:17.544Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW
I personally haven't found these arguments to be particularly persuasive, and most people around me seem to feel similarly about such arguments, if they are familiar with them at all.

Have you written somewhere about why you don't find cluelessness arguments to be particularly persuasive?

Comment by milan_griffes on Opinion: Estimating Invertebrate Sentience · 2020-01-25T13:17:37.652Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Also interesting here to reflect on what it'd mean for consciousness & intentionality to be (mostly) orthogonal, though that heads down a different road.

Comment by milan_griffes on "Why Nations Fail" and the long-termist view of global poverty · 2020-01-25T13:14:05.424Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Just for fun: https://twitter.com/AgiaTheBun/status/1220664590859718656 (a)

Comment by milan_griffes on Doing good is as good as it ever was · 2020-01-18T22:46:54.844Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · EA · GW
It seems to me (and I'm not alone, of course) that concern for the long term renders the sign of the value most of the classic EA interventions ambiguous.

I expanded on this here: What consequences?

Comment by milan_griffes on Doing good is as good as it ever was · 2020-01-18T21:40:33.710Z · score: 3 (4 votes) · EA · GW

See also: Giving more won't make you happier

Comment by milan_griffes on Physical Exercise for EAs – Why and How · 2020-01-18T19:10:56.617Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

+1

Running while listening to podcasts/audiobooks is so great.

Comment by milan_griffes on Physical Exercise for EAs – Why and How · 2020-01-17T19:31:28.955Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

fwiw I've found martial arts to be easier to stick with than the other exercise types I've tried, because they're very fun / I actually look forward to upcoming sessions.

Comment by milan_griffes on Physical Exercise for EAs – Why and How · 2020-01-17T19:29:31.516Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I've gotten a lot (physically & psychologically) from training Muay Thai.

I'll probably switch over entirely to Brazilian jiu-jitsu within a few years as it's a bit easier on the body (no striking) & can be practiced until late middle age.

Comment by milan_griffes on Growth and the case against randomista development · 2020-01-17T19:25:23.958Z · score: 15 (7 votes) · EA · GW

Tyler Cowen included this in today's Marginal Revolution links.

Comment by milan_griffes on More info on EA Global admissions · 2020-01-15T18:13:33.529Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · EA · GW
My impression is that many people who are highly involved in EA do not attend EA Global (some EA organization staff do not attend, for example), so I would be pretty skeptical of using it.

On the "group membership" dimension, attending EAG is less important for EA org staff as they have other signifiers of membership in the group.

Comment by milan_griffes on Will MacAskill on his ‘Eat That Elephant’ routine, learning from successful people, and the diminishing marginal returns of time spent working [blog cross-post] · 2020-01-12T18:45:07.091Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW
In fact, I did do explicit modeling of costs and benefits, which made it look a lot more equivocal on whether it was worth the time. I'm glad I went with just going with what successful people do, because the modeling was shit. Looking back now, it totally got wrong where most of the benefit of Doing Good Better came from, and I think that's systematically true.

Did Will say where most of the benefit from Doing Good Better came from? (Didn't see it in the transcript)

Comment by milan_griffes on I'm Cullen O'Keefe, a Policy Researcher at OpenAI, AMA · 2020-01-12T00:39:16.049Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for this helpful comment!

Curious what you think of Thiel's experience with law school and BigLaw (a):


This is not what I set out to do when I began my career. When I was sitting where you are, back in 1989, I would’ve told you that I wanted to be a lawyer. I didn’t really know what lawyers do all day, but I knew they first had to go to law school, and school was familiar to me.
I had been competitively tracked from middle school to high school to college, and by going straight to law school I knew I would be competing at the same kinds of tests I’d been taking ever since I was a kid, but I could tell everyone that I was now doing it for the sake of becoming a professional adult.
I did well enough in law school to be hired by a big New York law firm, but it turned out to be a very strange place. From the outside, everybody wanted to get in; and from the inside, everybody wanted to get out.
When I left the firm, after seven months and three days, my coworkers were surprised. One of them told me that he hadn’t known it was possible to escape from Alcatraz. Now that might sound odd, because all you had to do to escape was walk through the front door and not come back. But people really did find it very hard to leave, because so much of their identity was wrapped up in having won the competitions to get there in the first place.
Just as I was leaving the law firm, I got an interview for a Supreme Court clerkship. This is sort of the top prize you can get as a lawyer. It was the absolute last stage of the competition. But I lost. At the time I was totally devastated. It seemed just like the end of the world.
About a decade later, I ran into an old friend. Someone who had helped me prepare for the Supreme Court interview, whom I hadn’t seen in years. His first words to me were not, you know, “Hi Peter” or “How are you doing?” But rather, “So, aren’t you glad you didn’t get that clerkship?” Because if I hadn’t lost that last competition, we both knew that I never would have left the track laid down since middle school, I wouldn’t have moved to California and co-founded a startup, I wouldn’t have done anything new.
Looking back at my ambition to become a lawyer, it looks less like a plan for the future and more like an alibi for the present. It was a way to explain to anyone who would ask – to my parents, to my peers, and most of all to myself – that there was no need to worry. I was perfectly on track. But it turned out in retrospect that my biggest problem was taking the track without thinking really hard about where it was going.
Comment by milan_griffes on 2019 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison · 2020-01-11T19:15:21.959Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Ought recently published a technical progress update on their recent research.

Comment by milan_griffes on I'm Cullen O'Keefe, a Policy Researcher at OpenAI, AMA · 2020-01-11T15:28:08.835Z · score: 11 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Does law school make sense for EAs?

Comment by milan_griffes on What should EAs interested in climate change do? · 2020-01-10T21:42:06.733Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

See also: What can a technologist do about climate change? (a)

Which also happens to be one of the most beautiful websites I've ever seen.

Comment by milan_griffes on Impact Report for Effective Altruism Coaching · 2020-01-10T21:34:58.821Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Also here's a recent take from Romeo:


Burnout is on the rise because people are confusing screen time with leisure time. NOTHING that occurs on the screen is rejuvenating by giving your Sympathetic Nervous System a break. Video games and Netflix are optimized to be engaging = emotional agitation. Social media and news feeds induce comparison mindset, outragism and dopamine spirals. Worse, the fact that these tasks are interspersed throughout the day means you don't get the longer time blocks that are necessary for your SNS to actually calm down. Instead you are periodically jolted. Sleep problems increase when such a block of time doesn't occur before rest.
What gets measured gets managed, rescue time is helpful even if you don't do anything in particular with the data.
Before you yell at me yes creating art is an exception. But doing this one tab away from a distraction is more stressful than the alternative. I get a decent amount more writing done in places without wifi.
Comment by milan_griffes on Impact Report for Effective Altruism Coaching · 2020-01-10T21:31:39.775Z · score: 7 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Cool, I think a lit review of this territory would be valuable. (You've already got a start on one with this comment!) Could be an interesting opportunity to work with Elizabeth / deploy the methodology she's working on.

I've worked at places where I've tracked time actively, places where I've tracked time passively (e.g. with RescueTime), and places where I haven't tracked time at all.

I still get some value from RescueTime, but overall time-tracking has felt like a distraction on net, based on my experience so far. (YMMV etc.)

Comment by milan_griffes on Impact Report for Effective Altruism Coaching · 2020-01-09T22:25:26.600Z · score: 5 (2 votes) · EA · GW
... the objective gain could vary significantly from reported hours given that most people don’t track their time. I’m introducing time tracking to more of my clients, so I may get more objective hour reports soon.

Some considerations against time-tracking here (a), e.g.

"Part of the problem is simply that thinking about time encourages clockwatching, which has been repeatedly shown in studies to undermine the quality of work.

In one representative experiment from 2008, US researchers asked people to complete the Iowa gambling task, a venerable decision-making test that involves selecting playing cards in order to win a modest amount of cash.

All participants were given the same time in which to complete the task – but some were told that time would probably be sufficient, while others were warned it would be tight.

Contrary to an intuition cherished especially among journalists – that the pressure of deadlines is what forces them to produce high-quality work – the second group performed far less well. The mere awareness of their limited time triggered anxious emotions that got in the way of performance."

Comment by milan_griffes on More info on EA Global admissions · 2020-01-09T19:52:18.813Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · EA · GW

Have two lunch times with half the attendees at each? (Instead of one time with all the attendees)

Comment by milan_griffes on [Link] Bolsonaro is cutting down the rainforest (nytimes) · 2020-01-06T16:49:02.748Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Related (a). Disturbing & seems credible.

Comment by milan_griffes on More info on EA Global admissions · 2020-01-06T16:48:06.494Z · score: 7 (6 votes) · EA · GW
A huge part of community building in professional associations is going to an annual conference and getting to catch up with your peers, EAG is that way for those of us who don't live in largely populated EA cities.

+1 to the analogy of EA Global as a professional association's annual conference.

Comment by milan_griffes on More info on EA Global admissions · 2020-01-04T21:13:54.588Z · score: 13 (6 votes) · EA · GW

Thank you for this fantastic comment.


5. Group membership is in significant parts determined by who attends EAG, and not by who attends EAGx, and I feel somewhat uncomfortable with the degree of control CEA has over that

Strongly agree. EAG attendance is a Schelling point for who is "an EA" and who isn't, even if EAG organizers don't endorse this, and even if "being an EA" isn't an endorsed and/or fully coherent concept.

Comment by milan_griffes on Opportunity to work in Downing Street and influence UK policy · 2020-01-04T16:24:45.034Z · score: 8 (3 votes) · EA · GW

This recent essay by Cummings is good: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJ2ivxdgrYxnFLxNG/link-high-performance-government-dominic-cummings

Comment by milan_griffes on 2019 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison · 2020-01-02T22:17:23.172Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

More on this, hot off the presses: https://dominiccummings.com/2020/01/02/two-hands-are-a-lot-were-hiring-data-scientists-project-managers-policy-experts-assorted-weirdos/ (a)

Comment by milan_griffes on When To Find More Information: A Short Explanation · 2019-12-30T20:43:00.791Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW
Trying to do actual VOI estimates gets pretty confusing

+1

From my (limited) experience with VOI, it sounds great in theory, but in practice quickly turns into a hopeless pedantic muddle.

Comment by milan_griffes on [Link] Moloch Hasn’t Won (Zvi) · 2019-12-30T18:15:26.554Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Continuing on with Zvi's sequence:

I thought "Imperfect Competition" was particularly good.

Comment by milan_griffes on 2019 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison · 2019-12-30T03:06:06.737Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW
MIRI, in collaboration with CFAR, runs a series of four-day workshop/camps, the AI Risk for Computer Scientists workshops, which gather mathematicians/computer scientists who are potentially interested in the issue in one place to learn and interact. This sort of workshop seems very valuable to me as an on-ramp for technically talented researchers, which is one of the major bottlenecks in my mind.

Curious why CFAR wasn't included in the review as a standalone org, given your high opinion of AIRCS workshops?

Some more context in this comment.

Comment by milan_griffes on [Link] Moloch Hasn’t Won (Zvi) · 2019-12-30T02:39:02.345Z · score: 14 (5 votes) · EA · GW

If structures that let humans cooperate with each other are prone to Molochian dynamics, it's worth studying the etiology of these dynamics, their prevalence, and strategies for dealing with them.

It seems very likely that structures of human cooperation are prone to Molochian dynamics. See Scott Alexander's Moloch post, James C. Scott's Against the Grain (also Scott Alexander's review), and Harari on the agricultural revolution.

Almost all EA projects rely on structures of human cooperation.


Comment by milan_griffes on Aligning Recommender Systems as Cause Area · 2019-12-29T19:11:58.939Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Also on Marginal Revolution.

Comment by milan_griffes on 2019 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison · 2019-12-29T19:04:28.624Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW
No, that will be an over estimate for a few reasons...

Got it. Is ~$142,000 per employee closer to what MIRI is estimating for 2020 compensation expenditure?

(Removing the $0.51M term entirely, removing $0.56M from the Research Personnel estimate to account for interns & contractors, and adding one new ops employee to the denominator gives ($3M + $1.4M) / 31 employees = $142k per employee)