Posts

What question would you want a prediction market about? 2020-01-19T14:16:57.356Z · score: 4 (1 votes)
What content do people recommend looking at when trying to find jobs? 2019-12-19T09:50:21.395Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
UK General Election: Where would you look for impact analysis of policy platforms? 2019-11-14T17:13:17.459Z · score: 3 (2 votes)
A rationalism discussion with some useful lessons on culture 2019-11-05T09:29:30.150Z · score: 11 (6 votes)
Nathan Young's Shortform 2019-11-05T09:11:05.415Z · score: 3 (1 votes)
Ineffective Altruism: Are there ideologies which generally cause there adherents to have worse impacts? 2019-10-17T09:24:22.687Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
Who should I put a funder of a $100m fund in touch with? 2019-10-16T10:22:51.502Z · score: 6 (3 votes)
How to do EA Global well? How can one act during EA Global so as to make the most effective changes afterwards? 2019-10-16T10:21:03.573Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour 2019-09-16T14:40:14.359Z · score: 11 (9 votes)
EU AI policy and OPSI Consultation 2019-08-08T09:51:15.589Z · score: 19 (6 votes)
What are your thoughts on my career change options? (AI public policy) 2019-07-19T16:50:08.813Z · score: 9 (6 votes)
Please May I Have Reading Suggestions on Consistency in Ethical Frameworks 2019-07-08T09:35:18.198Z · score: 10 (4 votes)
How does one live/do community as an Effective Altruist? 2019-05-15T21:20:02.296Z · score: 23 (17 votes)
This website is really functional and attractive (to me) 2019-05-08T08:56:19.942Z · score: 0 (5 votes)
Is EA unscalable central planning? 2019-05-07T07:25:07.387Z · score: 9 (6 votes)
If this forum/EA has ethnographic biases, here are some suggestions 2019-05-06T11:20:51.105Z · score: -3 (15 votes)
How do we check for flaws in Effective Altruism? 2019-05-06T10:59:41.441Z · score: 39 (23 votes)

Comments

Comment by nathan on Coronavirus Tech Handbook · 2020-03-14T17:51:21.704Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

This now has sections for doctors and those working in government. Would be great to get EA eyes and contributions on anything you have experience in.

Comment by nathan on Are there good EA projects for helping with COVID-19? · 2020-03-04T13:31:11.599Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Retweets of this appreciated https://twitter.com/NathanPMYoung/status/1234908740803010562

Comment by nathan on Are there good EA projects for helping with COVID-19? · 2020-03-04T13:10:52.615Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · EA · GW

I have been leading on the Coronavirus Tech Handbook.

It's a collection of tools, websites and data relating to Coronavirus. If you see useful website, tools or datasets, please add them.

https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/

I imagine there are tech interventions people could make which would save lives, so connecting the community seems effective given how cheap it is.

Comment by nathan on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-06T07:44:05.031Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

You are entirely correct. My bad.

Comment by nathan on Joan Gass: How to Build a High-Impact Career in International Development · 2020-02-05T11:22:31.677Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Hi I'm struggling to understand the threshold analysis. Can anyone help?

It seems like ln(GDP) is the rate of change of GDP. If so, why isn't this compounding? ie why isn't the rate of change of GDP of after 5 years (1+.105*.96)^5 = 1.65 not .48. This would mean it would only need a 2% success chance to be the most effective intervention. I guess I'm missing something, please could someone help.

What is ln(GDP)? What does the ln mean in this context. I don't think it can be natural log. Most naturally it seems to be the rate of change but I'm confused as to why they chose ln().

Why is a 4% discounting rate the right one to choose?

Thank you for your time.

Comment by nathan on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-02-05T10:45:28.272Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Hey,

I suggest the question you've linked has an artificially low upper bound. Please could you update the link with this Metaculus question which, without the upper bound, provides a better prediction.

All metaculus questions are about cases, not deaths. Currently the most up to date community prediction is a 7% chance of over a billion cases this year. I am not sure where you found the claim you cite. Apologies if I've made some mistake.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-question-two/

Comment by nathan on brandonperez's Shortform · 2020-02-04T16:26:00.142Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Link doesn't work for me.

Comment by nathan on Nathan Young's Shortform · 2020-02-04T16:25:05.211Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Does anyone know people working on reforming the academic publishing process?

Coronavirus has caused journalists to look for scientific sources. There are no journal articles because of the lag time. So they have gone to preprint servers like bioRxiv (pronounced bio-archive). These servers are not peer reviewed so some articles are of low quality. So people have gone to twitter asking for experts to review the papers.

https://twitter.com/ryneches/status/1223439143503482880?s=19

This is effectively a new academic publishing paradigm. If there were support for good papers (somehow) you would have the key elements of a new, perhaps better system.

Some thoughts here too: http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2012/08/risks-and-rewards-of-arxiv-reporting.html?m=1

With Coronavirus providing a lot of impetus for change, those working in this area could find this an important time to increase visibility of their work.

Comment by nathan on Concerning the Recent 2019-Novel Coronavirus Outbreak · 2020-01-30T10:57:53.455Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Any thoughts on why the estimates here are so much higher than metaculus? Here they seem to range between 10 - 100 million, whilst the current metaculus median is 100k.

Maybe I've missed something.

Comment by nathan on EA Handbook 3.0: What content should I include? · 2020-01-30T09:38:19.034Z · score: 10 (6 votes) · EA · GW

I'd like a bit on being positive and welcoming. "EA is a really good way to help people" rather than"other charities are bad and your bad for supporting them"

Comment by nathan on AMA: We are Jon and Kathryn. We work with The Life You Can Save. Ask us anything! · 2020-01-23T13:38:48.807Z · score: 14 (8 votes) · EA · GW

What are some things that everyone at TLYCS knows that typical EAs might not?

Comment by nathan on What content do people recommend looking at when trying to find jobs? · 2019-12-19T09:51:18.070Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I've been recommended this: https://50waystogetajob.com/mission/send-this-email-to-the-company-you-want-to-work-for

Comment by nathan on What book(s) would you want a gifted teenager to come across? · 2019-11-14T17:29:06.085Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Stories of people with very different experiences to theirs. I think people can usually do with more empathy. Stories are a great way to open ourselves to the lives of others.

For me, I was moved by The Diving Bell and the Butterfly which is written by person with locked in syndrome (like Stephen Hawking had).

Comment by nathan on What book(s) would you want a gifted teenager to come across? · 2019-11-14T17:23:10.998Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Worth noting that Thinking Fast and Slows has some issues in the replication crisis (mainly around priming). Eg. this article here. https://jasoncollins.blog/2016/06/29/re-reading-kahnemans-thinking-fast-and-slow/

Comment by nathan on What book(s) would you want a gifted teenager to come across? · 2019-11-14T17:15:33.457Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Not so much an EA book, but David Deutsch's The Beginning Of Infinity is my top recommendation. It helped me understand how to avoid making some kinds of mistakes in my epistemology.

Comment by nathan on Who should I put a funder of a $100m fund in touch with? · 2019-10-16T10:48:46.762Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Out of interested why do you think it's bad to discuss publicly?

Comment by nathan on What posts you are planning on writing? · 2019-10-16T10:15:00.948Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · EA · GW

An AMA. I honestly don't think I'm a particularly good person to write one, but I think it would be good to have more on here.

I think if you're in an EA job I'd love to see an AMA from you.

Comment by nathan on New popular science book on x-risks: "End Times" · 2019-10-01T10:54:53.582Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Well we know what we're all giving our families this Christmas!

Comment by nathan on Effective Altruism and Everyday Decisions · 2019-09-25T09:41:53.261Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · EA · GW

I think this view is correct but I would think about how I expressed it.

If someone was sharing advice like this, they care about the future of humanity. Telling them they are making bad choices might put them off. Rather I would want to encourage them and suggest some of the highest impact interventions.

It's easy to come across as superior particularly to people who are trying to make the world better. This would be harmful.

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-25T09:12:39.359Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Sure though effectively that reads to me as "you shouldn't have published this". Is that what you mean?

If you mean "you should use a much more fine grained model if you ever get near a trustee board to decide if you should take it"- yes, I agree"

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-18T23:40:05.940Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

It's tricky isn't it. It's a poor model :P but it's better than my poorly informed intuition. Not quite sure what to do about that. Have a good one :)

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-18T16:45:30.502Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for your time in writing this. You've clearly thought about it a lot. I'll have a look at your comments.

I guess we want to encourage people to do more pieces like this and I think that were I not quite robust I would find this response intimidating. Maybe you could have started with a hello or a thank you to lighten the tone?




Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-18T16:34:21.033Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

1)I think you would get to research a charity before agreeing.

2)I don't know the answer.

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-18T16:32:42.933Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I don't have enough money to do that kind of work for every charity and to do it for a specific one I'd have to know how representative it is.

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-17T15:43:32.961Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I agree. If none of the charities represented are ones which do things you think are valuable or can conceive of becoming valuable I suggest people turn down the offer.

However, perhaps you could get some budget moved from dog and cat shelters into factory farming or change the types of protests that your members attend. Some types of change would be efficiency though others could be new avenues or publishing impact. I think you are right to say you could get some sense of likelyhood of positive impact on being offered the trusteeship.

Can you think of a way to include this kind of variability simply? Otherwise I guess there is no way to know whether this is a good idea or not and I'm not sure what to do with that.

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-17T10:38:08.722Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW
The model does nothing to consider the variability in impactfulness of charities. Many people think that the majority of charitable interventions achieve nothing, and it seems odd to ascribe value to a charity whose work isn't achieving anything.

Thinking again, I'm not sure I agree. The model assumes a 5% increase in effect. For a charity doing no impactful work that might mean making it slightly impactful, which doesn't seem unreasonable - getting them to make impact assessments could do far more good than this. What do you think?

Comment by nathan on I Estimate Joining UK Charity Boards is worth £500/hour · 2019-09-16T22:27:08.071Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

These are great points. I think I'll edit the piece later.

Many people think that the majority of charitable interventions achieve nothing, and it seems odd to ascribe value to a charity whose work isn't achieving anything.

Do you have any suggestions here? Perhaps people shouldn't be trustees of charities they don't think help? Or perhaps they could improve them?

Given that this is so variable, modelling this as a flat percentage seems like the model is glossing over a key input.

Could you give an estimate here? I really don't know enough.

Thank you for raising the profile of trusteeship as a volunteering opportunity. I agree that it's widely overlooked, and I think I have gained a lot from my past trusteeships.

Do you think you've gained things I haven't accounted for. Is it something you would recommend? If so, what gives you that confidence?

Thanks for your time and input.


Comment by nathan on What would EAs most want to see from a "rationality" or similar project in the EA space? · 2019-09-16T10:43:04.389Z · score: 0 (2 votes) · EA · GW

I'd love to see a tool that people enjoy using which testably teaches rationality.

Perhaps and app or novel which leaves people making better decisions on common tests of bias.

I would be particularly interested in seeing this in regard to elections. How do you teach people to vote more in line with their own interests?

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-09-16T09:41:53.435Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Had a chat with some people, was noted that Quakers are not evangelical whilst New Athiests are. People make snarky jokes about vegans for their evangelicalism. To what extent is it hard to be likeable when you think other people should believe what you do? To what extent is it better to spread ideologies by actions not words?

Are there any ways EA culture can improve? Big things to start, big things to stop?

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-18T13:59:19.455Z · score: 7 (6 votes) · EA · GW

In response to "If it goes well hopefully others will try it to" - in this community I think there is a very high entry barrier to feeling like you have something to say in an AMA style.

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-16T08:21:34.030Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thank you.

Though in this set of questions, I think we have, right?

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-15T15:51:32.124Z · score: 1 (7 votes) · EA · GW

For what it's worth, my thoughts are that I'd love to humanise such people but I'd probably like to do that by consuming content they choose to produce or having dinner with them, etc. It does seem like a waste of valuable time that Will chooses to use here to ask him personal info when he could more valuably spend that time imparting information. We aren't friends we're working on a project together.

Obviously that project might work better if we humanise each other. On the other hand in jokes cause cliques which inhibit perhaps inhibit the growth of ideologies - the lack of say athiest culture within EA allows Christains within EA to exist, which might not be possible if this forum contained loads of in jokes/ personal non-EA views.

Interested to hear thoughts.

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-15T15:47:04.804Z · score: 28 (16 votes) · EA · GW

Very few of these questions are about you as a person. That seems worth noting. On the one hand I'd be interested in what your favourite novel is. On the other hand that seems an inappropriate question to ask - "Will isn't here to answer questions about his personality, he's here to maximise wellbeing". Should we want to humanise key figures within the EA ideological space (like you)?

If yes, what made you laugh recently?

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-15T15:41:38.068Z · score: 4 (11 votes) · EA · GW

Personally, I would be leery of doing an AMA currently because I don't feel I have that much that the whole community ought to spend time reading.

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-15T15:36:17.555Z · score: 7 (7 votes) · EA · GW

Who do you think it would be most valuable if you could be put in touch with?

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-15T15:34:40.894Z · score: 2 (3 votes) · EA · GW

If there were an election, how do you think you would decide who to vote for? Would you produce any content on that decision making process?

Comment by nathan on Ask Me Anything! · 2019-08-15T15:34:05.900Z · score: 16 (12 votes) · EA · GW

Have you considered doing the mainstream intellectual podcasts as a means of repping 80k? Eg David Pakman, Dave Rubin, whatever you might get onto? If you don't think that's a good idea, why not?

Comment by nathan on Open Thread #45 · 2019-07-26T09:14:14.053Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

https://www.facebook.com/morgan.curtis/posts/10157354103556870?comment_id=10157361222336870&notif_id=1564064158553923&notif_t=comment_mention Person who is a "Giving Coach" who helps wealthy people give away their wealth to ethical causes. Was requested it be shared here. Moderately interesting.

Comment by nathan on What are your thoughts on my career change options? (AI public policy) · 2019-07-19T20:25:28.691Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I suppose I'm not putting much weight on it, other than what is required to keep me working at a problem for the long term. The issue there is that I don't know what working at many of these jobs will be like...

In terms of desires, I would like most of all to have a legitimate ethical system. I value that more than my own wellbeing and my own desires. So I don't really care what I want other than instrumentally. I do thinks I *want* on my own time, whereas I think for my career I'd like to maximise as much as I can.

At least I think so - it's hard to know what you really want, right?

Perhaps I'll end up justifying what I want to do anyway. I suppose this process at least stops me making significantly non-maximal choices.

Comment by nathan on Want to Save the World? Enter the Priesthood · 2019-07-09T09:29:39.134Z · score: 9 (6 votes) · EA · GW

Interesting take. I like your willingness to think about this and I agree that religion offers a lot and there are many lessons to learn. Some thoughts:

  • What will one say when their congregation asks what they believe and why?
  • Generally it seems EAs advise against going into harmful organisations to "change them". Have I misunderstood or why not here? Perhaps you don't think religious orgs are on balance harmful.
  • In my understanding the quickest growing religious sects are conservative, which will be strongly opposed to doing things for maximising wellbeing as opposed to what the Bible/Qu'ran says.
  • I think seeking the growth of more liberal branches is an interesting idea but what if that gives the "oxygen" required by more conservative groups. What if this ends up aiding the growth of conservative dogmatism?
Comment by nathan on Announcing the launch of the Happier Lives Institute · 2019-06-28T19:20:31.703Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Yeah, fair points. :)

Comment by nathan on Open Thread #45 · 2019-06-21T14:17:04.851Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Article I wrote about the recent Tory Leadership debates:

https://medium.com/nathan-young/if-i-were-a-tory-c8652ef0d140

Comment by nathan on Memetic Tribes and Culture War 2.0 (Article Discussion) · 2019-06-21T14:13:52.815Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

I was nearly gonna post this article so glad you already have. I think it provides an interesting framework for understand peoples worldview (telos, existential threat etc). I have found it to be useful in discussing people's veiws with them: "What do you think is the purpose of life, what do you fear? etc"

Comment by nathan on Announcing the launch of the Happier Lives Institute · 2019-06-21T13:53:45.326Z · score: 9 (4 votes) · EA · GW

Thank you for your work. It seems like a really important thing to study. Thank you for taking the time to lay your your plans so clearly.

Do you think your work will at any point reach onto how individuals could live that would make them more happu or have greater well being? I think there is room for publising a kind of workflow/ lifehacks to help peoeple know how their lives could be better. I acknolwedge that's not what you speak about here but it seems adjacent. Perhaps another reader could point me in the direction of this.

We think well-being consists in happiness, defined as a positive balance of enjoyment over suffering. Understood this way, this means that when we reduce misery, we increase happiness.

Sure though there are some kinds of misery you don't want to reduce. I could choose not to attend my fathers funeral and that would reduce misery. Do you have any idea how you will attempt to account for "good sadness" in any way? If you will avoid those kinds of interventions, how will you choose your interventions and how will you avoid bias in this?

Comment by nathan on Open Thread #45 · 2019-05-30T07:01:42.405Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Non EA Parody Video I made

I made a Brexit parody of Remix to Ignition. You folks are a community I'm part of and I think sharing what your are proud of (or what is uniquely you), is a great part of community life.

https://youtu.be/F3C0jy_DmJo

(As an aside I'd like to do some EA rap if I could think of a good idea of how to do it. Alternatively if you want rap marketing of an EA organisation or rap at an event then we can talk)

Comment by nathan on How does one live/do community as an Effective Altruist? · 2019-05-17T10:56:57.965Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Regarding there being answers. That's good to know, I guess I will search for them - also I've just found less wrong - which is useful.

I'll check out those links.

You might be right about a broad discussion. If it turns out that issues haven't been covered I might come back and write a more specific piece.

I have not spent any time in local EA communities. I'd like to though, but that will involve working out where I'm going to live next.

Thanks for your time.

Comment by nathan on How does one live/do community as an Effective Altruist? · 2019-05-16T12:01:41.481Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Yeah I wonder if there is any home-finding app in the EA community. I'd love to live with some people with similar views. (I am equally wary of going from one strict ideology to another but there we are)

Comment by nathan on Is preventing child abuse a plausible Cause X? · 2019-05-16T08:17:14.978Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · EA · GW

In this sense I think the govt should create appropriate incentives for long term committed relationships where children are concerned - perhaps like a no claims bonus (an increasing yearly benefit of not crashing a car in the UK) for each year parents with children who stay together until their last child is 18?

Comment by nathan on How does one live/do community as an Effective Altruist? · 2019-05-16T07:58:28.810Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

It's fair to remove comments one no longer supports but if someone did say this, I'd agree. :P I guess it stands out a mile away.

Comment by nathan on Does climate change deserve more attention within EA? · 2019-05-13T10:28:59.630Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Hey thanks for replying,

Sure, it's a question of maximising effect. I don't know what is best. 80k say it's not the most effective. I suppose you'd have to ask them how that explanation works.

Certainly it's a better thing to do that working building bombs, but as to if it's as good as AI policy, 80k says no.

What do you think?