Posts

This post is a Work-In-Progress 2022-10-03T15:44:28.615Z
Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. 2022-09-27T16:41:56.465Z
Forum ranking system prototype: Cause Prioritsation Contest posts ranked by prediction markets 2022-09-05T15:55:38.795Z
Comments should float beside text 2022-09-02T16:37:29.091Z
Moving in step with one another 2022-09-02T11:02:43.985Z
Ships don't have rudders everywhere 2022-09-02T10:59:35.626Z
Schisms are bad, actually: Community breakdown sucks 2022-09-02T10:28:43.611Z
Armchair expertise is good 2022-09-02T10:13:23.626Z
The forum should support live estimation 2022-09-02T10:04:25.458Z
Can You Predict Who Will Win OpenPhil's Cause Exploration Prize? Bet on it! 2022-09-02T00:02:48.523Z
What we are for? Community, Correction and Scale [wip] 2022-09-01T22:44:40.774Z
Improving Karma: $8mn of possible value (my estimate) 2022-09-01T22:42:09.174Z
Summaries are underrated 2022-09-01T22:34:14.808Z
Famine, Affluence and Morality [Link Post to PDF] 2022-08-29T16:00:45.056Z
EA memes Sept 2022 2022-08-27T09:36:14.784Z
EA has a lying problem [Link Post] 2022-08-16T21:57:16.348Z
What is the top concept that all EAs should understand? 2022-07-05T11:56:22.627Z
I doubt "Neartermist" is a monicker people want. What would you like to be called? 2022-05-25T12:46:41.485Z
What are we as the EA community? 2022-05-25T11:29:31.083Z
The Inner Ring [Crosspost] 2022-05-15T12:29:22.698Z
Posting More Better: Social Media Rules of Thumb 2022-05-03T17:06:37.785Z
Community posts: The Forum needs a way to work in public 2022-04-08T09:32:19.322Z
EA and Global Poverty. Let's Gather Evidence 2022-04-05T19:20:32.678Z
I feel anxious that there is all this money around. Let's talk about it 2022-03-31T10:44:37.371Z
What EAG sessions would you like to see on meta-EA? 2022-03-20T17:34:43.685Z
What EAG sessions would you like to see on Global Priorities Research? 2022-03-20T17:34:10.107Z
What EAG sessions would you like to see on horizon scanning? 2022-03-20T17:33:23.585Z
What EAG sessions would you like to see on global health and wellbeing? 2022-03-20T17:32:47.909Z
What EAG sessions would you like on Global Catastrophic Risks? 2022-03-20T17:26:55.738Z
What EAG sessions would you like to attend on biorisk? 2022-03-20T17:13:55.863Z
What EAG sessions would you like on AI? 2022-03-20T17:05:38.586Z
What EAG sessions would you like on epistemics? 2022-03-20T15:40:43.174Z
What EAG sessions would you like on animal welfare? 2022-03-20T10:32:03.169Z
Why aren't EA funders funding the NTI? 2022-02-28T14:46:52.355Z
EA Memes Feb 2022 2022-02-16T20:00:14.910Z
Elon Musk donates $5.7 Billion, will work with Igor Kurganov [Crosspost] 2022-02-16T12:32:51.246Z
What EA Polis Question Should I Write? 2022-02-12T17:18:52.917Z
What brand should EA buy? If we had to buy one. 2022-02-05T11:13:32.249Z
January 2022 monthly meme post 2022-01-04T16:37:29.080Z
Do you use the EA Wiki? 2022-01-04T15:40:06.437Z
What advice would you give to an EA org that's hiring? 2021-11-25T15:28:13.768Z
December 2021 monthly meme post 2021-11-24T14:13:34.295Z
[Unofficial PR FAQ] Posting more jobs to the forum (but they are hidden by default) 2021-11-20T13:05:49.810Z
What are the bad EA memes? How could we reframe them? 2021-11-16T11:18:29.689Z
What stops you doing more forecasting? 2021-11-16T00:26:37.266Z
If you could make a second EA forum with a different vibe to this one, what would it be like? 2021-11-16T00:17:14.316Z
What's the GiveDirectly of longtermism & existential risk? 2021-11-15T23:55:55.104Z
What has helped you write better? 2021-11-12T18:54:10.081Z
Will Givewell recommend breastfeeding promotion before 2027 [forecast] [crosspost] 2021-11-09T22:58:40.064Z
What high-level change would you make to EA strategy? 2021-11-04T16:31:18.905Z

Comments

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 · 2022-10-04T11:03:10.575Z · EA · GW

Why do you think it's a bad idea?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 · 2022-10-04T10:57:39.645Z · EA · GW

It is. I guess I just sense this is still really quite unlikely.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Tony Blair Institute - Compute for AI Index ( Seeking a Supplier) · 2022-10-03T23:31:16.670Z · EA · GW

Lennart, I was going to put you and Tom in touch. Have you talked?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Nathan Young's Shortform · 2022-10-03T23:01:34.795Z · EA · GW

I think the EA forum wiki should allow longer and more informative articles. I think that it would get 5x traffic. So I've created a market to bet. 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 · 2022-10-03T22:39:43.575Z · EA · GW

I wish there was a way to do granular disagreement on this.  While this is a clear case for forecasting and estimation, all issues boil down to how big quantities are. 

There is no way for me to comment on specific lines or specific numbers. And technically speaking I don't think this can be too difficult since LessWrong has a docs-style editor.  I suggest that inline comment threads are hidden by default and users can turn them on if they want to. Perhaps they get brighter the more upvoted they are.

Secondly,  I wish estimation was a first-class citizen of the forum. Imagine if for each of these models, users could add their own numbers and we could see a community median across all supplied values. For many articles, I think that would be really valuable/game-changing.

I reckon that it's gonna happen by 2030 and I'm happy to bet to that effect
 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 · 2022-10-03T22:21:35.586Z · EA · GW

I am lower on use in Ukraine the next month (~4%) and much lower in the next year (6%).

I guess I sense it's just still a big norm we need reasons to push us away from this. What's more, even if Putin does want to launch a nuke, which I guess I think is unlikely (10?%) it still needs to happen soon and the chain of command need to agree with him. And his lieutenants need to think that this is a situation that gains them something rather than thinking that NATO will support Ukraine with conventional weapons.

What I find more compelling is that they might launch/detonate a low-megaton nuke on the battlefield where they are losing. But again, that has to go off without a hitch, via some chain of command, it has to happen in the next month. And again, what does Russia gain from this, other than showing that their bluff wasn't a bluff. 

I am happy to bet here.

 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Why does AGI occur almost nowhere, not even just as a remark for economic/political models? · 2022-10-03T18:01:54.487Z · EA · GW

Can I tweet this list. I think it's really good.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on This post is a Work-In-Progress · 2022-10-03T17:58:53.075Z · EA · GW

I can still see it on the frontpage.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-10-03T17:32:43.893Z · EA · GW

I am much less confident this is a comment worth making given people have voted as much. I, therefore, retract it. Oops/sorry.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Why don't people post on the Forum? Some anecdotes · 2022-10-03T16:41:35.679Z · EA · GW

Thanks for referencing Community Posts, which I wrote about here.

This would entail:

  • Posts anyone could edit
  • They could be on any EA post topic 

Would you use this feature if it existed? Agree using ✅, disagree using ❌. Don't worry about brutally x-voting me, I'll be fine. 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Maybe housing is not our biggest issue · 2022-10-03T15:01:51.346Z · EA · GW

[Nuance]

While I buy the housing theory of everything and support more housing, I don't think it is nearly one of the most pressing problems.

But I think it's very cheap for us to occasionally say "while it's not the most important thing, it would be good if we fixed it".

I feel similarly about homelessness, sexism in politics, human rights abuses in small countries. 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on EA Forum feature suggestion thread · 2022-10-03T14:25:52.517Z · EA · GW

I have had a request for uploading a PDF. 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Tony Blair Institute - Compute for AI Index ( Seeking a Supplier) · 2022-10-03T14:23:42.356Z · EA · GW

Note that talking to Tom, he would have included a PDF if we had a way to upload those. 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Announcing Amplify creative grants · 2022-10-03T11:28:09.422Z · EA · GW

Amplify is a great name.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Tony Blair Institute - Compute for AI Index ( Seeking a Supplier) · 2022-10-03T11:27:17.654Z · EA · GW

As a broader point, which Tom is brave to have reached out in this way, this is a terrible user flow. I wonder how many people want to work with the EA community but have no idea how to interact with our ecosystem.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Tony Blair Institute - Compute for AI Index ( Seeking a Supplier) · 2022-10-03T11:14:12.732Z · EA · GW

I've messaged two people about it. Feel free to nudge me on @nathanpmyoung if noone gets in touch. Thanks for reaching out, big fan of the TBI's pragmatic approach to policy change.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on EA is too reliant on personal connections · 2022-10-03T11:00:19.907Z · EA · GW

Though this is a costly process and I guess 99% of people who would otherwise submit jobs don’t. Look at the jobs on @effective_jobs that aren’t on the 80k jobs board. Often many are from top tier organisations.

80k is revamping their jobs board, so we’ll see in 6 months. Currently I think the criticism largely stands.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on EA is too reliant on personal connections · 2022-10-03T10:57:48.952Z · EA · GW

Broadly, I agree. I think that social connections bringing benefit is a deeply human trait, but I think we can do better.

My suggestions:

  • Acknowledge the situation. Yes, we are a community that works a lot on interpersonal networks and we lose information and talent from people who don’t have access to those. We gain the ability to move quickly often without grifters. What are the costs and benefits in lives saved?
  • Relentlessly build systems that scale. Personal connections are much higher fidelity than submission forms, people you vibe with are usually better employees than random people. But at scale these heuristics break down - there are ideas you’ll miss without submission forms and better candidates who you won’t vibe with. I am attempting to build systems in forecasting question generation and prize generation that don’t require people to know someone to get something done. Superlinear is the org that gets this best in my opinion
Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-30T14:05:05.070Z · EA · GW

Any thoughts on my edited version?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-30T14:02:41.290Z · EA · GW

I made some edits. Thank you for the challenge.

 I guess I disagree that personal branding isn't real and a choice. People make choices about their presentation all the time. I think the question is more whether this is a reasonable question to ask in public. I'm open to the idea that it isn't.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on The $100,000 Truman Prize: Rewarding Anonymous EA Work · 2022-09-29T12:35:42.569Z · EA · GW

I suggest "$100k prize pool"

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-29T12:21:25.808Z · EA · GW

heavily edited

This isn't an easy question, but I think it's valuable enough to ask. How easily do non-British-Isles people understand Will's speech? 
 
Tick -> you struggle to understand it
Cross -> you understand it fine

I think this is both a delicate topic and something that seems reasonable to ask. I don't love that I am discussing a hugely over-scrutinised person's accent, but equally, if it turns out that Will's comprehensibility could be improved, valuable to know. Nor is this really a Will thing, we could all work on our comprehensibility. It's just that only 1 of us is on Trevor Noah.

Mostly, lets see what the non-British-Isles community actually thinks. Hopefully, this gets x-voted into oblivion.

Editing notes. The original text was a bit blunter and I felt bad. Feel free to downvote it if you think it was a bad question in general. Thanks to Karthik for the challenge. Also I wanted to give people a way to vote on the substance of the issue. The tick and cross are the other way round so that if people say they understand him fine, I'm punished for asking the question in the first place.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-29T12:19:06.509Z · EA · GW

I guess it didn't occur to him. You can see he's nervous and speaking succinctly and winsomely in front of a crowd and tv cameras is really hard. I was impressed how many relevant facts he had at his immediate disposal.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-29T12:17:45.698Z · EA · GW

Minor nitpick. I don't want to drive fossil fuel companies out of business. I want to tax their carbon-producing activities to the point they clear up the damage they have done and are carbon neutral in future. 

Giving a short nuanced answer to this effect would have been really difficult, but, alongside praising Will for what was a superb interview, it feels worth pointing out possible improvements. The world is lucky that Will did not accidentally die falling through the roof of some Scottish abandoned building[1].

  1. ^

    I'm paraphrasing, but this is a real thing that really nearly happened and if it had, I wonder where we'd all be now.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-28T21:35:46.699Z · EA · GW

The interview went really well. Props to Will, that looked really difficult to navigate.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-28T21:34:01.125Z · EA · GW

❤️

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on William MacAskill - The Daily Show · 2022-09-28T19:42:18.947Z · EA · GW

Sadly the video isn't available in the UK

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-28T09:11:15.748Z · EA · GW

I’d read the answers to that question

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T20:13:29.121Z · EA · GW

Carrick Flynn

I don't know if Carrick plans to do more political runs in future, but if he does probably more followers would be valuable to him.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Global Warning Contest · 2022-09-27T20:04:43.625Z · EA · GW

It's a dumb joke about the notion of a Global Warming Contest, as if your aim was to cause global warming.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T19:35:40.616Z · EA · GW

I really hope you referencing this: 

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T19:01:44.335Z · EA · GW

Sure, thank you, will do. What about yourself, what would happen if you had 1M followers?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Global Warning Contest · 2022-09-27T18:58:34.012Z · EA · GW

To stop global warming?

Right?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:56:33.486Z · EA · GW

Twitter downsides:

  • causes anxiety
  • takes up mental real estate in these people’s heads
  • being dogpiled is horrible

But I think Twitter is just very high leverage in terms of networking and changing minds. And we want to change minds, right?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:53:49.203Z · EA · GW

What do you think is the case for effort being spent on me more than those high on the list? like what’s the benefit of me having 50k followers? Maybe I could more easily network with important non-EAs?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:48:17.321Z · EA · GW

Chana Messinger

Chana is clever, funny and responsible. I don’t know how to frame her as a larger twitter account, but I think she should be one.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:41:57.840Z · EA · GW

Nuño Sempere - https://twitter.com/NunoSempere

I think there is a risk to empowering the hot takes, forcasting crowd (of which I'm partially one), but I think if Nuño can be branded as not necessarily the mainstream view in EA, I’d like to see his thoughts getting much more attention.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:38:35.536Z · EA · GW

I carefully copied it from my address book.. where i’d spelt it wrong.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:28:23.219Z · EA · GW

Toby Ord

Yes, Toby is a big deal, but could he be on documentaries. Would we want that? Certainly seems feasible to imagine him having more twitter followers. Unlike some of the big names here, I don't see a quick way to do that.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:18:58.847Z · EA · GW

Having read your link, she’s an AI expert, great suggestion.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:16:22.756Z · EA · GW

Luisa Rodriguez

Luisa is a x-risk expert, who contributed heavily to Will’s book. She is a good conversationalist. Seems like she could easily be sent to do the podcast circuit and end up with 20k followers.

She seems a clear candidate for “public intellectual”

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:12:35.795Z · EA · GW

Given how superb the team were at promoting wills book, I struggle to believe they are seriously attempting twitter promotion right now.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:07:28.504Z · EA · GW

What strategy would you propose to get him more followers?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:06:55.032Z · EA · GW

I don’t think I should be high on this list. I’m a good networker but I don’t think EA as a whole benefits from me being a much bigger account.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T18:00:14.471Z · EA · GW

You’re right, but I think the opposite way round makes more sense.

“ Use upvotes to signal the priority of the answer, and the agree/disagree to support the specific reasoning given by the answer.

IE the upvote ordering should be the correct ordering.”

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T17:51:06.989Z · EA · GW

what’s her field again?

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T17:16:52.095Z · EA · GW

Cari Tuna

I am both uncomfortable including Cari (because I sense she deliberately doesn't engage heavily with EA publicly) and uncomfortable excluding her (I think her impact is already underrated by EA discourse). I assume there is some reason she's not more active on twitter, but the interview she gave in 2015?? was really good and I sense she'd be a great public figure if she wanted to be. 

I think with a few interviews that would be  easy to get and maybe $50k in staff you could get her account to 20k in a  year (60%)

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T17:09:46.031Z · EA · GW

Dustin Moskovitz

I am uncertain if it's good that Dustin is rapidly becoming more legible on twitter, but since SBF is becoming waaay more legible, I think it's good that Dustin is too. Dustin tweets a lot and is pretty funny. I imagine he'll hate the idea of actual publicity, be if he didn't, I'd want him to have like 100k - 1m followers.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T16:53:49.250Z · EA · GW

Holly Elmore

Holly is an expert in her field, is honest and kind. I would like to see her with 30k followers. I don't see any super easy way to bootstrap that though.

Comment by Nathan Young (nathan) on Which EAs should be bigger on Twitter? Upvote those who are top priorities. · 2022-09-27T16:47:35.563Z · EA · GW

Habiba Islam

Habiba is a very talented advisor, a model community member and is very winsome. (Full disclosure, we're friends.) I don't really know how to make her expertise legible enough that she could justify a 200k account, but I think that in a better world she would have a much larger presence.