Posts

US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! 2020-04-01T18:07:54.351Z · score: 72 (28 votes)
Coronavirus Research Ideas for EAs 2020-03-27T21:01:48.181Z · score: 117 (48 votes)
We're Rethink Priorities. AMA. 2019-12-12T16:09:19.404Z · score: 91 (36 votes)
Rethink Priorities 2019 Impact and Strategy 2019-12-02T16:32:25.324Z · score: 69 (33 votes)
Please Take the 2019 EA Survey! 2019-09-23T17:36:35.084Z · score: 47 (22 votes)
GiveWell's Top Charities Are Increasingly Hard to Beat 2019-07-10T00:34:52.510Z · score: 40 (20 votes)
EA Survey 2018 Series: Do EA Survey Takers Keep Their GWWC Pledge? 2019-06-16T23:04:46.626Z · score: 77 (23 votes)
Is EA Growing? EA Growth Metrics for 2018 2019-06-02T04:08:30.726Z · score: 168 (65 votes)
EA Survey 2018 Series: How Long Do EAs Stay in EA? 2019-05-31T00:32:20.989Z · score: 52 (26 votes)
Rethink Priorities Plans for 2019 2018-12-18T00:18:31.987Z · score: 65 (42 votes)
Open Thread #40 2018-07-08T17:51:47.777Z · score: 8 (10 votes)
Animal Equality showed that advocating for diet change works. But is it cost-effective? 2018-06-07T04:06:02.831Z · score: 23 (20 votes)
Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccines: Appendices and Endnotes 2018-05-08T07:43:43.262Z · score: 8 (9 votes)
Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccines: Exploring Model Uncertainty and Takeaways 2018-05-08T07:42:53.369Z · score: 10 (9 votes)
What is the cost-effectiveness of researching vaccines? 2018-05-08T07:41:10.595Z · score: 12 (10 votes)
How much does it cost to roll-out a vaccine? 2018-02-26T15:33:03.710Z · score: 6 (6 votes)
How much does it cost to research and develop a vaccine? 2018-02-24T01:23:33.601Z · score: 7 (7 votes)
What is Animal Farming in Rural Zambia Like? A Site Visit 2018-02-19T20:49:45.024Z · score: 15 (14 votes)
Four Organizations EAs Should Fully Fund for 2018 2017-12-12T07:17:14.418Z · score: 39 (42 votes)
Is EA Growing? Some EA Growth Metrics for 2017 2017-09-05T23:36:39.591Z · score: 19 (17 votes)
How long does it take to research and develop a new vaccine? 2017-06-28T23:20:04.289Z · score: 19 (13 votes)
Can we apply start-up investing principles to non-profits? 2017-06-27T03:16:49.074Z · score: 39 (28 votes)
The 2017 Effective Altruism Survey - Please Take! 2017-04-24T21:01:26.039Z · score: 10 (10 votes)
How do EA Orgs Account for Uncertainty in their Analysis? 2017-04-05T16:48:45.220Z · score: 10 (11 votes)
How Should I Spend My Time? 2017-01-08T03:22:46.745Z · score: 13 (13 votes)
Effective Altruism is Not a Competition 2017-01-05T02:11:23.505Z · score: 35 (33 votes)
Semi-regular Open Thread #35 2016-12-30T22:28:48.381Z · score: 9 (9 votes)
Why I Took the Giving What We Can Pledge 2016-12-28T00:02:57.065Z · score: 18 (18 votes)
The Value of Time Spent Fundraising: Four Examples 2016-12-23T04:35:25.797Z · score: 7 (7 votes)
What is the expected value of creating a GiveWell top charity? 2016-12-18T02:02:16.774Z · score: 10 (10 votes)
How many hits does hits-based giving get? A concrete study idea to find out (and a $1500 offer for implementation) 2016-12-09T03:08:25.796Z · score: 14 (14 votes)
Thoughts on the Reducetarian Labs MTurk Study 2016-12-02T17:12:44.731Z · score: 15 (14 votes)
Using a Spreadsheet to Make Good Decisions: Five Examples 2016-11-26T02:21:29.740Z · score: 47 (27 votes)
Students for High Impact Charity: Review and $10K Grant 2016-09-27T21:05:44.340Z · score: 15 (17 votes)
A Method for Automatic Trustworthiness in Study Pre-Registration 2016-09-25T04:22:38.817Z · score: 12 (11 votes)
Using Amazon's Mechanical Turk for Animal Advocacy Studies: Opportunities and Challenges 2016-08-02T19:24:58.259Z · score: 17 (12 votes)
Five Ways to Handle Flow-Through Effects 2016-07-28T03:39:44.235Z · score: 24 (16 votes)
End-Relational Theory of Meta-ethics: A Dialogue 2016-06-28T20:11:52.534Z · score: 10 (10 votes)
How should we prioritize cause prioritization? 2016-06-13T17:03:45.558Z · score: 17 (10 votes)
A Case for Empirical Cause Prioritization 2016-06-06T17:32:43.818Z · score: 14 (14 votes)
Global poverty could be more cost-effective than animal advocacy (even for non-speciesists) 2016-05-31T15:02:32.339Z · score: 16 (15 votes)
More Thoughts (and Analysis) on the Mercy For Animals Online Ads Study 2016-05-27T03:00:29.228Z · score: 13 (13 votes)
.impact's pivot to focus projects 2016-04-29T19:59:47.775Z · score: 14 (8 votes)
Is EA growing? A concrete study idea to find out (and a $100 offer for implementation) 2016-02-21T21:42:28.036Z · score: 16 (18 votes)
Do EAs underestimate opportunities to create many small benefits? 2016-01-25T04:20:10.880Z · score: 11 (13 votes)
EA risks falling into a "meta trap". But we can avoid it. 2015-08-25T15:22:26.620Z · score: 46 (53 votes)
Peter Hurford thinks that a large proportion of people should earn to give long term 2015-08-17T15:42:07.612Z · score: 47 (50 votes)
Moral Economics in Practice: Musing on Acausal Payments through Donations 2015-08-12T17:41:12.855Z · score: 6 (6 votes)
Peter's 2015 Q2 Personal Review 2015-07-21T18:17:04.171Z · score: 5 (7 votes)
Join .impact's Third Workathon this Sunday at Noon Pacific 2015-07-19T00:02:18.999Z · score: 2 (2 votes)

Comments

Comment by peter_hurford on Some thoughts on EA outreach to high schoolers · 2020-09-22T19:16:18.910Z · score: 6 (5 votes) · EA · GW

One other random point: it strikes me as easier to filter college students for altruism, ambition, talent, etc. than for high school students.

Comment by peter_hurford on Sign up for the Forum's new email digest · 2020-09-17T17:31:05.012Z · score: 12 (7 votes) · EA · GW

Unrelated EA Forum feature request: It would be helpful to be able to filter the list of all posts to posts I have already upvoted and posts I have already strongly upvoted. This combined with date and tag filtering would make it really easy to re-find content. :)

Comment by peter_hurford on Modelling the odds of recovery from civilizational collapse · 2020-09-17T14:24:14.762Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · EA · GW

I think a moderate amount of this work has actually already been done - I'd be happy to help connect you.

Comment by peter_hurford on Some thoughts on EA outreach to high schoolers · 2020-09-14T13:40:55.515Z · score: 24 (14 votes) · EA · GW

Three not particularly important or related thoughts from having thought about SHIC a fair amount:

  • One of the hardest parts of high school outreach I think will be getting people to continue to be engaged over their college career (assuming they go to college), which is four years of substantial chance of value drift before any direct impact happens. Whereas recruiting from college, the distance is much less.
  • It seems like the typical "good student" high schoolers optimize a lot for having authority figures like them, which could easily lead them to endorse - even enthusiastically - EA views they don't end up holding all that strongly. This could skew outreach and the perception of success.
  • I think one of the best things about hearing about EA pre-college is it would let you set up your college plan (e.g., major, internships) in an EA-directed way, which I think is one of the most useful things to do for an EA-career, as opposed to having to make some sort of more difficult within-college or post-college transition. (On reflection with full hindsight, I'm not sure what I would've done differently or how I would've had more impact if I had heard of EA in high school rather than halfway through college, but I certainly did feel off-guard in that respect.)
Comment by peter_hurford on Does personal frugality increase with moral circle expansion? · 2020-09-01T10:59:31.942Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Definitely seems like this could be empirically tested with survey research. The EA Survey data could also be useful, though you'd also want to examine non-EA attitudes and variations.

Comment by peter_hurford on Examples of loss of jobs due to Covid in EA · 2020-09-01T01:25:30.755Z · score: 12 (6 votes) · EA · GW

All hiring and other activities at Rethink Priorities is continuing as normal without any noticeable affect from COVID-19.

Comment by peter_hurford on What is the financial size of the Effective Altruism movement? · 2020-09-01T01:19:10.137Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · EA · GW

One source of information for this might be the 2019 EA Survey, which analyzed self-reported data for about 2500 EAs. Our prior analysis found that EAs in the survey reported total donations of $16.1M USD in 2018.

We didn't report raw income data, but it looks like the sum of self-reported annual income in our EA Survey sample is $116M USD.

Of course this is likely a large underestimate of the total financial firepower of EA ...for one, it ignores OpenPhil, which donates tens of millions of dollars a year and has the capacity to donate much more

...for two, there are probably another several tens of millions in annual donations by high net worth individuals who affiliate with EA somewhat but don't fill out the EA Survey, though if you keep looking into this eventually though you will get into difficult debates about who counts as EA or not.

Comment by peter_hurford on CEA Mid-year update (2020) · 2020-08-11T18:31:38.750Z · score: 23 (8 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks! I really appreciate this level of transparency and thoughtfulness.

Comment by peter_hurford on Where the QALY's at in political science? · 2020-08-05T17:24:02.331Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Great power war/conflict?

Comment by peter_hurford on Donor Lottery Debrief · 2020-08-05T00:12:42.338Z · score: 26 (9 votes) · EA · GW

If you are launching (or know about) a project that you believe may have a strong EA impact and has room for more funding, I'd be happy to hear about it. 

 

I'd be bad at my job if I didn't mention that Rethink Priorities is looking for money ;)

Some reason to prefer an individual donor like me rather than institutional donors like Open Phil, LTFF, EA Grants, and GiveWell

Worth nothing that one reason as an individual donor to support an organization that benefits from institutional giving is that there are only so many of these institutions and they're frequently willing to only be so much of an organization's budget. This can actually allow an individual to act almost as a 1:1 match by unlocking more institutional funding.

Comment by peter_hurford on Should we think more about EA dating? · 2020-07-27T14:09:28.510Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Not sure what you mean... Number of long-term relationships? Number of dates? Number of times I've talked with a cute non-EA girl about EA and perceived it as going well? Regardless not sure I'd be comfortable revealing that info in public.

Comment by peter_hurford on Should we think more about EA dating? · 2020-07-26T22:52:19.744Z · score: 17 (9 votes) · EA · GW

I just want to add my experience is that "Maybe I get off the EA Forum, go outside and tell that cute girl I pass every day all about Peter Singer's drowning child thought experiment" has worked really well for me so far.

Comment by peter_hurford on Should local EA groups support political causes? · 2020-07-22T00:44:43.497Z · score: 14 (6 votes) · EA · GW

Worth noting there are a lot of important political questions that can be lobbied on that aren't part of the traditional blue vs. red axis (e.g., cage-free legislation, increasing foreign aid)

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-05T16:22:26.959Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · EA · GW

How much time do you spend forecasting? (Both explicitly forecasting on Metaculus and maybe implicitly doing things related to forecasting, though the latter I suspect is currently a full-time job for you?)

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-05T15:59:06.931Z · score: 19 (7 votes) · EA · GW

1.) This is amazing, thank you. Strongly upvoted - I learned a lot.

2.) Can we have an AMA with JGalt where he teaches us how to read all the news?

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-01T23:17:14.774Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · EA · GW

What do you think you do that other forecasters don't do?

Comment by peter_hurford on Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020 · 2020-07-01T13:43:43.863Z · score: 1 (2 votes) · EA · GW

FYI - Your link to Foretell is broken

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-01T04:22:51.678Z · score: 14 (8 votes) · EA · GW

What should a typical EA who is informed on the standard forecasting advice do if they actually want to become good at forecasting? What did you do to hone your skill?

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-07-01T04:21:59.079Z · score: 17 (8 votes) · EA · GW

This was a lot of good discussion of epistemics, and I highly valued that, but I was also hoping for some hot forecasting tips. ;) I'll try asking the question differently.

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-06-30T23:22:34.799Z · score: 15 (10 votes) · EA · GW

What do EAs get wrong about forecasting?

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-06-30T23:22:09.338Z · score: 14 (8 votes) · EA · GW

How many Twitter followers will you have next week?

Comment by peter_hurford on I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA · 2020-06-30T23:21:53.347Z · score: 35 (15 votes) · EA · GW

What do you think helps make you a better forecaster than the other 989+ people?

What do you think makes the other ~10 people a better forecaster than you?

Comment by peter_hurford on How should we run the EA Forum Prize? · 2020-06-25T18:16:21.722Z · score: 12 (4 votes) · EA · GW
So I suppose the argument for this is that some people basically get paid to write on the Forum, and it's not surprising that those people (coughSauliuscough) win lots of prizes, which crowds out good content from amateurs. I'm not sure to what extent this is true, and if true, I'm unconvinced that it's bad.

I went and checked and I think the people who have won the most money from the EA Forum Prize are actually Buck Shlegeris and Ben Kuhn (tied for first place). I don't know if they were paid to write what they wrote but my guess is they were not.

Comment by peter_hurford on The Life You Can Save's 2019 Annual Report · 2020-06-19T13:31:54.206Z · score: 12 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Amazing work!

Comment by peter_hurford on EA Forum feature suggestion thread · 2020-06-17T17:51:52.336Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Awesome!

Comment by peter_hurford on EA Forum feature suggestion thread · 2020-06-17T15:18:34.775Z · score: 59 (22 votes) · EA · GW

It's still a crime that we don't support tables and it's a second crime that no one else has mentioned this yet.

Comment by peter_hurford on Who should / is going to win 2020 FLI award 2020? · 2020-06-12T15:48:32.226Z · score: 22 (13 votes) · EA · GW

I don't know who would win, but if people are taking nominations I'd like to nominate Maurice Hilleman:

Maurice Ralph Hilleman (August 30, 1919 – April 11, 2005) was an American microbiologist who specialized in vaccinology and developed over 40 vaccines, an unparalleled record of productivity. Of the 14 vaccines routinely recommended in current vaccine schedules, he developed eight: those for measles, mumps, hepatitis A, hepatitis B, chickenpox, meningitis, pneumonia and Haemophilus influenzae bacteria. He also played a role in the discovery of the cold-producing adenoviruses, the hepatitis viruses, and the potentially cancer-causing virus SV40.
Comment by peter_hurford on Forum update: Tags are live! Go use them! · 2020-06-03T15:58:32.633Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

+1

Comment by peter_hurford on Examples of people who didn't get into EA in the past but made it after a few years · 2020-05-27T10:47:33.982Z · score: 7 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Is your internship paid?

Comment by peter_hurford on Examples of people who didn't get into EA in the past but made it after a few years · 2020-05-26T17:33:17.390Z · score: 37 (16 votes) · EA · GW

I never had to ask anyone's permission to do EA-related research.

I just worked hard in my free-time for over five years and then finally was able to have enough reputation to co-found my own research non-profit (Rethink Priorities). I totally understand this path isn't accessible to everyone (or even most people) but it is probably more within the grasp of people than they might think and I think it's worth some consideration.

I think a great place to start is just making thoughtful EA Forum posts (perhaps aiming to emulate good reasoning transparency and the style of highly upvoted posts) and trying to talk with other thoughtful EAs.

Even if you don't go on to co-found your own research non-profit, this portfolio you build will almost certainly either get you noticed by a recruiter or boost your application when you do apply.

Comment by peter_hurford on I Want To Do Good - an EA puppet mini-musical! · 2020-05-21T19:03:43.058Z · score: 8 (6 votes) · EA · GW

This is really cool. It's really great to see you put your talents toward promoting EA. I think you did an excellent job!

Comment by peter_hurford on How should longtermists think about eating meat? · 2020-05-16T21:55:53.113Z · score: 11 (30 votes) · EA · GW

How do longtermists feel about punching their neighbor in the face? Are there any fleshed-out, longtermist arguments out there on why people shouldn't punch their neighbor in the face?

Comment by peter_hurford on The Case for Honey · 2020-05-15T16:19:10.113Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · EA · GW

I feel like there's a lot of irony in coming into a community and telling them they're doing everything wrong, by lecturing them about how they shouldn't go into communities and tell them they're doing everything wrong?

I think your post would benefit from more concrete suggestions about where you think messaging is insufficiently modest and what kind of messaging you would use instead?

Comment by peter_hurford on Physical theories of consciousness reduce to panpsychism · 2020-05-07T17:54:58.079Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

What do you think of Luke Muehlhauser's objections to Integrated Information Theory?

Comment by peter_hurford on Physical theories of consciousness reduce to panpsychism · 2020-05-07T13:09:04.614Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Are linear regressions conscious?

Comment by peter_hurford on What will 80,000 Hours provide (and not provide) within the effective altruism community? · 2020-05-03T20:49:08.268Z · score: 21 (15 votes) · EA · GW

The biggest problem here seems to be that no one else appears to be taking on the role of introducing people to EA in any significant and scalable way. I think it would be much easier for 80K to do their longtermist-focused thing if we had other robust EA recruitment pipelines. I wonder if the new GWWC might be able to take on this role?

Comment by peter_hurford on CEA's Plans for 2020 · 2020-05-03T20:44:15.042Z · score: 27 (11 votes) · EA · GW

I think a very common failure mode for CEA over the past ~5 years has been: CEA declares they are doing X, now no one else wants to or can get funding to do X, but CEA doesn't actually ever do X, so X never gets done.

I think spinning off GWWC and EA Funds is a great step for fixing this failure mode and I'd like to see CEA continue to welcome other groups and people to filling neglected roles in the community.

Comment by peter_hurford on Responding to COVID-19 in India · 2020-04-26T20:15:21.126Z · score: 13 (7 votes) · EA · GW

This is so cool.

Comment by peter_hurford on Discontinuous progress in history: an update · 2020-04-18T16:46:00.814Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Great work, as usual.

Comment by peter_hurford on Phil Trammell: Philanthropy Timing and the Hinge of History · 2020-04-07T15:20:05.570Z · score: 12 (6 votes) · EA · GW

1.) Do we need to worry about how long it takes to deploy capital? If a patient philanthropist encounters a "hinge", will there be enough pre-existing institutions to be able to take advantage of it?

2.) How much should we value the information gained from acting now and "learning by doing" about what works?

3.) I imagine there also should be value for a patient philanthropist to still donate considerably to research now, so we can better identify "hinges" and know how and where to take advantage of them.

Comment by peter_hurford on Coronavirus and non-humans: How is the pandemic affecting animals used for human consumption? · 2020-04-07T11:54:28.804Z · score: 11 (5 votes) · EA · GW

We're doing some message testing on this and can get back to you.

Comment by peter_hurford on What is the average EA salary? · 2020-04-05T16:54:53.981Z · score: 25 (9 votes) · EA · GW

You can answer this with EA Survey data (and we just did, right now, right here - looks like $38,559 median, $50,000 mean), but I'd urge caution with interpretation given that there is a lot of variation between organizations (and also the EA Survey likely doesn't capture all the orgs that may be relevant).

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-04T04:01:12.882Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

We're now in contact with Chase (our bank) about applying. Unsure about the timeline.

Comment by peter_hurford on Atari early · 2020-04-03T15:24:16.073Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks for putting this together.


Do you have any insight into why human-level Angry Birds play seems to be harder than expected?

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-03T12:49:24.744Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Per Axios reporting the "ban" on VC-backed startups may change .

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-03T04:16:27.930Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Per Chase Business, it looks like they aren't ready to take applications yet. I would expect significant delays.

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-03T04:15:28.615Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-03T03:45:10.626Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · EA · GW

Cool! I think the grant framework is different than a typical investor engagement that a VC arranges. If you read our Open Phil contracts you can see we are not partners.

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-02T12:17:54.717Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Thanks.

Current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations of the Applicant

I guess I assumed this was true for everyone, but I have now made it more clear and prominent throughout my article. If you're lucky enough to not have economic uncertainty, I agree you should not apply for this grant.

Comment by peter_hurford on US Non-Profit? Get Free* Money From the Gov on 3 Apr! · 2020-04-02T00:02:28.388Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · EA · GW

Yes, it is correct that increasing headcount will not affect loan forgiveness.